Facebook will disappear in a few years, says analyst

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Facebook will disappear in a few years, says analyst | Internet & Media - CNET News

Will Facebook suffer the same fate as MySpace in a few years? That's what one analyst predicts.
Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" program Monday, Eric Jackson, founder of Ironfire Capital, said that Facebook will lose its dominance as a social network in five to eight years.
In his forecast, Jackson cited Facebook's inability to crack the mobile market and the stock's 27 percent nosedive since the company's IPO.
"In five to eight years they are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared," Jackson said. "Yahoo is still making money, it's still profitable, still has 13,000 employees working for it. But it's 10 percent of the value that it was at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it's disappeared."
Projecting doom and gloom for Facebook has become a popular hobby, especially since the company went public last month. Faced with a listless stock price, concerns over its online advertising, and ongoing privacy worries, the social network seems to be on the brink of disaster, according to some people.


Of course, no company is invulnerable. MySpace was once the dominant force in the social networking arena and has since virtually dropped off the face of the Web. And certainly, more pressure is on Facebook to make money from advertising now that it's publicly traded. But honestly, the network isn't going to lose its dominance anytime in the foreseeable future.


Facebook is well on its way to capturing almost a billion members around the world. And despite concerns over privacy and other issues, users have come to rely on Facebook as the primary way to stay in touch with family and friends. How many people across the world now use Facebook instead of e-mail or phone to communicate and share important news?


Yes, some may not use the service as frequently as they did in the past. A recent poll from Reuters and Ipsos found that 34 percent of Facebook users hop onto the site less frequently than they did six months ago. But almost half spend around the same amount of time, and 20 percent are spending more time.
#analyst #disappear #facebook #years
  • Profile picture of the author Dayne Dylan
    Banned
    I agree, I give FB about 5 years max.
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  • Profile picture of the author tj
    Originally Posted by Aussie_Al View Post

    Facebook will disappear in a few years, says analyst | Internet & Media - CNET News

    Will Facebook suffer the same fate as MySpace in a few years? That's what one analyst predicts.
    Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" program Monday, Eric Jackson, founder of Ironfire Capital, said that Facebook will lose its dominance as a social network in five to eight years.
    In his forecast, Jackson cited Facebook's inability to crack the mobile market and the stock's 27 percent nosedive since the company's IPO.
    "In five to eight years they are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared," Jackson said. "Yahoo is still making money, it's still profitable, still has 13,000 employees working for it. But it's 10 percent of the value that it was at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it's disappeared."
    Projecting doom and gloom for Facebook has become a popular hobby, especially since the company went public last month. Faced with a listless stock price, concerns over its online advertising, and ongoing privacy worries, the social network seems to be on the brink of disaster, according to some people.


    Of course, no company is invulnerable. MySpace was once the dominant force in the social networking arena and has since virtually dropped off the face of the Web. And certainly, more pressure is on Facebook to make money from advertising now that it's publicly traded. But honestly, the network isn't going to lose its dominance anytime in the foreseeable future.


    Facebook is well on its way to capturing almost a billion members around the world. And despite concerns over privacy and other issues, users have come to rely on Facebook as the primary way to stay in touch with family and friends. How many people across the world now use Facebook instead of e-mail or phone to communicate and share important news?


    Yes, some may not use the service as frequently as they did in the past. A recent poll from Reuters and Ipsos found that 34 percent of Facebook users hop onto the site less frequently than they did six months ago. But almost half spend around the same amount of time, and 20 percent are spending more time.
    Isn't that the same kind of report like the "The End of Internet Marketing ..." or The End of Google ... " ? This kind of reports are just empty talking - nothing else.

    Timo
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    • Profile picture of the author WritingService
      Originally Posted by tj View Post

      Isn't that the same kind of report like the "The End of Internet Marketing ..." or The End of Google ... " ? This kind of reports are just empty talking - nothing else.

      Timo
      Like this comment
      its market player for make worst condition on online world
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  • Profile picture of the author vivi62
    Even the best things come to an end,nothing is forever so unfortunately we will see a decline in all social networks over a period of time.people are saying that pinterest is the next big thing but personally I prefer videos in film form so they tell a story.
    Regards
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  • Profile picture of the author David Keith
    i don't see FB making it either. I am a stock guy, and their valuations are crazy.

    Even after the stock dropped 30% it still has a price to earnings number that indicates it has the potential to make about 5x the profit google makes.

    I see FB being obligated more and more to share holders and less and less responsive to the cares of its customers. That usually means customers move on. The really need to increase the "pain of separation" of their services.

    I can see how FB can make money, but i don't see a way they can be 5x more profitable than google.

    Google has a dream business in that its advertising spaces are not really intrusive to its core function. People search for something and see ads related to that. Not a bad thing for anyone really.

    People don't go to FB to get info on products or services. The ads are just a way to monetize things, but they are not at all related to the main reason people visit FB.

    People won't pay to use FB for the thing they go there for now, so FB has few real good options when it comes to big time monetization of its platform. like 5x google profits...not even close.

    Their one really good shot is mobile. but that is a hyper-competitive area with lots of existing major players who have entrenched businesses there and deep pockets.

    in my opinion, they have peaked or almost peaked already. They won't go away soon, but i just don't see a long term plan that works without major changes.
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    • Profile picture of the author Cee
      Originally Posted by David Keith View Post


      People don't go to FB to get info on products or services. The ads are just a way to monetize things, but they are not at all related to the main reason people visit FB.

      People won't pay to use FB for the thing they go there for now, so FB has few real good options when it comes to big time monetization of its platform. like 5x google profits...not even close.
      Not to mention that the ads are really annoying. I don't know how they figure out what ads to show people but in my case they didn't do a very good job of targeting my demographic. I never clicked on any ads and finally installed an ad blocker so I don't have to see them anymore. I wonder how many other people have installed ad blockers.
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  • Profile picture of the author nicholasb
    I don't know why everyone cares bout this so much, if facebook goes away there will be something to replace it, there will be another top website where everyone goes, and as long as they rent targeted advertising space I'll be happy.

    Even if they don't and my Facebook advertising traffic has to stop then I'll just buy more ad slots on a different site. No big deal, it could vanish tomorrow and my business and my life would go on as usual
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  • Profile picture of the author JSProjects
    I wouldn't be surprised. Look what happened to Myspace. It basically fell off the face of the earth overnight. What's to say the same thing won't eventually happen to Facebook?
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    • Profile picture of the author Aussie_Al
      Originally Posted by JSProjects View Post

      I wouldn't be surprised. Look what happened to Myspace. It basically fell off the face of the earth overnight. What's to say the same thing won't eventually happen to Facebook?
      I agree - look at AOL they were THE powerhouse from say 94-99 - every where you went you would see those CDS (400 free hours) etc

      They are pretty much washed up now.
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    • Profile picture of the author Litherland
      Originally Posted by JSProjects View Post

      I wouldn't be surprised. Look what happened to Myspace. It basically fell off the face of the earth overnight. What's to say the same thing won't eventually happen to Facebook?
      gosh thats true i remember using myspace and now its just a thing of the past and as people have stated that all good things come to an end.

      Im more of a twitter user then facebook.

      :confused: Hope facebook doesnt go too soon as i have all my photo albums on there.
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    • Profile picture of the author Sandor Verebi
      Originally Posted by xxxJamesxxx View Post

      Classic example of linkbait... And you bit.

      James Scholes
      James, probably you're right.

      Anyway, I don't see why you need to worry about and to run so much in the future. FB is just one of the many opportunities, use it until you see results from. Meanwhile, smart people develop other revenue sources.

      Folks, we'll go over the bridge when we get there.

      Until then, peace, please.

      Sandor
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  • Profile picture of the author dragtastic
    I'd have to agree with this - I feel that millions of people wont be on FB in the next 7-10 years
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  • Profile picture of the author Ewan Lumsden
    Banned
    Facebook still has life in it yet. Another 5-6 years I'm saying.
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  • Profile picture of the author sarlat
    FB will still be around as its now more of a means of communication than anything else. However will be nowhere near as dominant.
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  • Profile picture of the author Nick Copy
    On the internet, networks will come and go. This is why it is important for internet marketers to be aware of changing trends in the social media realm and adapt accordingly.

    From an investment prospective, Facebook's most pertinent challenge is revenue growth; which is entirely dependant on their ability to monetize their millions of users. Expect new products (like the rumoured development of a Facebook cellphone) to emerge in future.
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    • Profile picture of the author JEasy
      Originally Posted by Nick Copy View Post

      On the internet, networks will come and go. This is why it is important for internet marketers to be aware of changing trends in the social media realm and adapt accordingly.

      From an investment prospective, Facebook's most pertinent challenge is revenue growth; which is entirely dependant on their ability to monetize their millions of users. Expect new products (like the rumoured development of a Facebook cellphone) to emerge in future.
      They'll officially jump the shark with this one. When you see this, then it's game over.
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  • Profile picture of the author SocialMediaOwls
    agreed 100%....most peoplea are already "bored" with fb
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  • Profile picture of the author CBusiness
    all Facebook has to do to stay relevant is keep it simple

    their demise came with the layout change... loss of interests were major for that....

    Steve Jobs went all the way to India to learn this key principle... Myspace died for the same reasons.

    Google has stayed strong b/c they've made changes without losing its simplicity
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  • Profile picture of the author John J M
    But even myspace stayed alive a while turning their focus toward musicians...maybe facebook can pick out something specific that will keep some of the crowd around.
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  • Profile picture of the author dwhs
    So will Google mind = blown

    But both won't be replaced with big companies, just a clever idea we thought would never work at this point but with hard work was pushed through.
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    • Profile picture of the author rmoore
      Being popular online for 5 years online...is still a looong time.

      My goal will be to ride that wave for 5 more years, build a massive tribe...and move that tribe to whatever becomes the "next Facebook".

      -Rusty
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  • Profile picture of the author Maxwell Stinson
    In my opinion, Facebook isn't going to just vanish. Slowly, it will go away as newer social networks emerge and as long as people are looking for the next big thing.

    It may die down and experience less activity, but I don't think Facebook will ever vanish completely... Well, at least as long as Zuckerberg comes up with something new and big for it.
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  • Profile picture of the author Peter C
    Mark Zuckerberg also predicted this, that's why he unloaded 1 billion worth of his share
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  • Profile picture of the author emarion1114
    It doesn’t surprise me. I believe that there is always something better that comes along and replaces the other like what facebook did to friendster, and twitter did to myspace. LOL!
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  • Profile picture of the author GeraldNitram
    I bet there are people who were betting that this kind of article would suddenly pop up in the near future. One of the posts here mentioned that even the best things come to an end. I would have to agree to that, and I'll just have to accept the change. It's not like Facebook's the only way to connect with other people.
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  • Profile picture of the author Andyhenry
    There are always people who like the sound of their own voice and want to have something 'controversial' to say.

    This is just noise.
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    nothing to see here.

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    • Profile picture of the author Sandor Verebi
      Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

      There are always people who like the sound of their own voice and want to have something 'controversial' to say.

      This is just noise.
      Andy, you better put it into words than me. Thank you!

      Cheers,

      Sandor
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        ..............................
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  • Profile picture of the author mariyajames
    May be but not sure about it! Facebook has so may users but still there is a possibility for FB to loose the importance for business personals because at this time when Google+ is having so much importance than FB for business purpose..

    So not sureeee about FB's future
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  • Profile picture of the author Bruce NewMedia
    Speaking of which, whatever happened to MYSpace? was it just the competition of Facebook and Twitter, or were they acquired or something?
    _____
    Bruce
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    • Profile picture of the author Cee
      Originally Posted by Bruce NewMedia View Post

      Speaking of which, whatever happened to MYSpace? was it just the competition of Facebook and Twitter, or were they acquired or something?
      _____
      Bruce
      I thought I read somewhere that Justin Timberlake was part of a group that bought MySpace several months ago to try and get it up and running again. I think they paid around $30 million for it. A fraction of what it was once worth.
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  • Profile picture of the author williamk
    Banned
    That is a really good analysis. It seems that facebooks days are indeed numbered.
    But Pinterest is already the next big thing. Lets wait and watch.
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  • Profile picture of the author daddykool
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  • Profile picture of the author prismkuet
    May be Facebook will disappear but not within 5-8 years. More and more people are going busy, they need something like a social networks to stay in touch with their family and friends. Here is the main appeal of facebook and it will keep Facebook alive.
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    • Profile picture of the author madison_avenue
      But the social service it full-fills will remain; that of the need for people to communicate on a personal and emotional level and be interested in what others are doing too.

      So these forces will remain. Whether Facebook is will be the dominant the receptacle for these impulses, probably not, because of the rapid changes in technology something else could easily emerge, maybe video led , voice led, smaller more niched, offering more power etc Fashions may change people might start wanting privacy and exclusive access.

      But some other applications and websites will full-fill that demand, as marketers we will just go to the new wrapper. Facebook itself is not really an issue.
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  • Profile picture of the author mandude002
    I want to make the next facebook! But maybe Google+ will actually take over.. I havent really used it but it seems better and not so "beta" like now.
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  • Profile picture of the author HFlame7
    Facebook's business model never really seemed like a long-lasting one.
    Of course it would take another site to come out to beat it, and don't see Google Plus doing that anytime soon (or ever for that matter).
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  • Profile picture of the author Wendy Maki
    I don't know what the future holds, and there seems to be a regular turn-over of the big players, so that's as likely as anything else.

    Here's what I SEE, at least around me: kids in the 18-23 age group use FaceBook... almost exclusively...plus texting. They don't use email. They do search. On FaceBook, they use the clever little games and such indiscriminately, without any privacy or data concerns. The number one way they communicate is texting, #2 is FB and a lot of the facebooking is on their cellphones. (It's so annoying, they barely lift their faces up from their phones )

    So, what happens when they become more important in an economic sense?

    PS. I don't see them Google+ing either.
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  • Profile picture of the author RohitShah
    I have to disagree with the article. It may have a partially valid point but Facebook is not one of those companies which would loose easily. I think this is determined by how they look at their biggest threats. Facebook was smart enough to buy Instagram (even though they had to pay crazy sum) just because it seem threat to them (photos + mobile). Unless Facebook stops buying and adapting new technologies its hard for them to disappear.

    Off course Facebook will die in few years but only if they do not evolve (which I highly doubt they wouldn't). The key is to keep adapting new technologies and make use of it in simplistic way which I think Facebook is doing (take latest example of Instagram).

    So to sum up, I highly doubt that Facebook wouldn't be here in next 5 years. Infact I believe it would be bigger and stronger than ever.

    Again, this is just my opinion just like the author of the article.

    Time will tell.

    P.S: Yahoo example is something I wouldn't buy. They can compare Yahoo with Facebook when Facebook starts playing "change the CEO" game.
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  • Profile picture of the author Scootek
    I agree with nicholasb, even if FB dissapears, something else will take it's place, like the way MySpace users moved on. However, for now the reality is FB is still pretty huge. I don't have enough experience to predict these things, but if I were making a prediction about FB, I would predict that it would get smaller in size and settle down, rather than completely dissapear.
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    • Profile picture of the author cashp0wer
      I think the only way Facebook will go away if something even better comes out and then I think it will take a long while for people to move from Facebook to something else. So many people have been using Facebook for so long that they are comfortable there.
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  • Profile picture of the author BlackWar
    Banned
    I don't think that Facebook will disappear within next few years.
    Because now a days peoples are more busy than past,
    they've not enough time to connect with every well wisher individually,
    so here you must have need a common social network to save your valuable time.
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  • Profile picture of the author celente
    I am reading these comments and agree.

    But I listen to a very talented forecaster, and he has been spot on with many things, and scarily accurate with what is happening in the economy. He even called the stockmarket crash before it happend.

    Here is what he is saying about facebook......watch it, it is a VERY INTERESTING!

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  • Profile picture of the author Big Al
    There was an ancient online civilization called Friendster...

    http://youtu.be/7mFJdOsjJ0k

    If real civilizations rise and fall, why are we surprised that online ones don't do the same?!
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    • Profile picture of the author ViveK kathiriya
      We need to wait for next action of face book....i think it will not happen its come in new edge,Because most of the business need support of facebook
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    • Profile picture of the author TiffTips
      Dave Ramsey doesn't have much faith in FB.

      Just like all social sites, sure, it won't last much longer. It's all about the newest, hottest thing. But with the money he's made, I wouldn't care. :p
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  • Profile picture of the author Brian Tayler
    AOL... Sixdegrees... Friendster... Myspace... Yes facebook will be a thing of the past as well
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  • Profile picture of the author vanforum
    I believe Facebook will manage to stay the market leader within social media for quite a while mainly because I believe they will take the step to the next level in a very short while. They will launch their own technical platforms for app developers and soon enough we will have even more multi billion dollar businesses that solely rely on Facebook as their distribution channel. I don't think MySpace ever had companies like Zynga etc beneath them to provide that kind of foundation. Neither did they ever have $10B in cash.
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    • Profile picture of the author Des Lau
      I can't even remember the last time I wrote on my wall on Facebook, these days it's just a spontaneous browse above the first refresh and if there's nothing of care, I just close.

      I find myself emailing my close friends more than on Facebook of late. Maybe it's an age thing, you just don't care what people think as you get older!

      I was actually thinking today if they could break up the market and have an over 30's facebook. I for one, currently do not accept friend requests from mums, uncles nor friend's parents as this is just going over the line for privacy - I'd imagine with the need for business and advertising with the older market, this could probably work.......or not
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  • Profile picture of the author hanyulong
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  • Profile picture of the author JerrickYeoh
    Those analyst i base on the Facebook IPO drop . It not only show in CNET , it show in mashable and webpronews as well.
    Human behavior change might not lose technology. I believe Facebook can survive more 5 years atleast but 10 years might see Facebook might face like Friendster.
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  • Profile picture of the author richgrad
    Google plus tried to rival facebook but failed spectacularly...

    Unless something MUCH better comes along, I believe facebook will still be around for quite some time to come...
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  • Profile picture of the author Punit12
    As like everything comes to end one day, so will Facebook,

    But that wont be an end of Facebook!

    In better words Facebook will have a NEW Face, something more Innovative will be there on Zuckerberg's Mind. So no worries!

    Because Business is All about Analyis & Optimization!
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  • Profile picture of the author powerofschool
    Some day if Fb lost the place.

    Some alternate will occupy that place.

    May be fb come to the top again.

    Every one will jump according to the Trend.....
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  • Profile picture of the author sergwhite
    Is this something we should be worrying about now? I'm just starting to get to grips with social stuff (I'm doing the affiliate marketing)...
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  • Profile picture of the author quercus5
    Probably depends if there is something to come along to replace it, much like FB did to myspace. FB could simply shift gears into another type of website (much like myspace) in order to survive. History shows that it will most likely be knocked down at some point because of either internal holes or external competition.
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  • Profile picture of the author seo-it-right
    If you look at the traffic Facebook receives which is far higher than Google, it will be interesting to see what they do with it, considering the search is powered by Bing makes it very interesting.
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  • Profile picture of the author John Romaine
    Everything great eventually comes to an end. Its inevitable.

    Anyone thinking otherwise is a fool.

    Look at marshmallows. They were cool back in the 80's, now barely anyone eats them.
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  • Profile picture of the author achukuttan
    Hey, Anyway facebook has 900 million active customers. So if get down, I am sure there will be another one like that where all these will go....So no probs...
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  • Profile picture of the author JohnMcCabe
    tl;dr

    Analysts only have two jobs:

    a) Make predictions

    b) Explain what went wrong with a)...

    :p:p
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    • Profile picture of the author DigitalBay
      ..............................
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  • Profile picture of the author PPC-Coach
    5 years online is an eternity for a site to last. I know as I've got one that is about to turn 5 in September. If Facebook doesn't evolve and upgrade it will die. Good ideas work well for years, then people get bored and move onto the newest shiny object. UNLESS the site can evolve and offer them what they want.

    Predicting the demise of Facebook is just the latest gimmick for analysts who want face time on the talking head shows. It's really not that bold of a prediction given that there are a finite number of people on this dirtball and most have Facebook accounts already.

    What's happening though is the big advertisers are seeing less ROI on their facebook ads versus other traditional online mediums. So they're leaving. It's not the little affiliate marketers that matter, (although they cause the most work for FB employees), it's the big dogs leaving that hurt. The big huge corporations are branders typically and if they took that same money and developed some creative direct response campaigns they'd do far far better.



    So will Facebook die? Naw, but something will come along that is more popular. Who knows maybe someone on these very forums will be the owner that thing.
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