When do you think this recession will over ?

39 replies
I was talking to a friend the other day, and i asked him when he thinks this recession will end, and he told me an interesting thing.

He told me that in his opinion this recession can be long up to 10 years. I know most of people thinks that it will end in 2010 but how can a person be sure ?

How can you survive it these 10 years if it's true?
What action will you take to prepare yourself?

Kinda scary.

shlomi
#recession
  • Profile picture of the author Andyhenry
    There being a recession doesn't mean that everyone has to worry or that things will be bad for you.

    I've found no difference whatsoever in my situation or potential so far and I still think that whatever lies ahead of me is much more in my control than anything to do with the economy or recession.

    So, to be honest - I don't care how long it lasts, it's not something I plan to base my decisions on.

    Andy
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    • Profile picture of the author Daret
      Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

      There being a recession doesn't mean that everyone has to worry or that things will be bad for you.

      I've found no difference whatsoever in my situation or potential so far and I still think that whatever lies ahead of me is much more in my control than anything to do with the economy or recession.

      So, to be honest - I don't care how long it lasts, it's not something I plan to base my decisions on.

      Andy
      I agree with Andy here, you should always be prepared and don't get carried away with the paranoia.
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      • Profile picture of the author Dan C. Rinnert
        There were companies that did well during the Great Depression.

        The companies that hurt the most were those that cut back on their marketing budgets and tried to hunker down for the long haul.

        The companies that prospered kept their name out in front of consumers. People were still buying. They may have been buying less and there may have been fewer buyers, depending on the products and services, but there were buyers. I think the national unemployment rate in the U.S. hit a high of 25% overall, which meant that 75% still had jobs. In some areas, unemployment rates were higher. In Ohio, for example, there were 60-80% unemployment rates in some cities.

        And, that made it all the more important for a company to keep their name out there, so that the people that were buying would remember them and think of them when making a purchase.

        Radio and print media (magazines, newspapers) also experienced growth during the Great Depression. Where did they earn their revenues? Advertising.
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    • Profile picture of the author dmarze
      Originally Posted by Andyhenry View Post

      There being a recession doesn't mean that everyone has to worry or that things will be bad for you.

      I've found no difference whatsoever in my situation or potential so far and I still think that whatever lies ahead of me is much more in my control than anything to do with the economy or recession.

      So, to be honest - I don't care how long it lasts, it's not something I plan to base my decisions on.

      Andy
      Great post Andy. Like you said... it is all in our control.
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  • Profile picture of the author koolwarrior
    Banned
    It'll be over when the rich are SUPER rich...and the poor and middle classed are SUPER poor.

    Too much financial fear is driving people to pull out of the stock market, which decreases a company's overall value.

    It's that herd mentality. When one pulls out of a company...everyone follows suit out of fear of why someone else did it.

    And when that happens, companies go out of business, and people lose jobs. Unemployed people cling to their money and stop spending and investing, and that does damage to companies that THEY used, and then THEY go down.

    The cycle will continue until every business that people are afraid to spend money in or on is GONE...and the brave are ready to start businesses that are truly set to meet the actual DEMANDS coming from the people.
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  • Profile picture of the author BizBooks
    the word "upheaval" means things at the top might sink to the bottom... but SOME THINGS will be on top when the smoke clears. (when? I don't know. Neither does anyone else. if they did, and they could prove it, they would be a trillionaire.)

    its an opportunity.... like no other in our lifetimes.
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  • Profile picture of the author Sheila
    You can make money in any market. It's just that different products sell well during different cycles. Take a look around you, see what people want, then find a way to supply them with something that will benefit them.

    There are always hungry markets that will exchange their money for a product that meets their wants. This might surprise you, but the industry that had the greatest growth during the depression in 1929 was the entertainment industry!

    If you're having a difficult time with the recession, change your mindset and start looking for opportunities where you can help. For instance, people are really interested in home buisness opportunities now - they want to improve their life - and something tells me you know where to find a few products to sell to that niche :-) So, why not help them and help yourself at the same time?

    . . . that's how you "survive" a recession - no matter how long it lasts - you improve the lives of others around you! Then, before you know it, you might notice the negativity around you, but you won't be personally caught up in it.

    Best of success to you!
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  • Profile picture of the author firstdrum
    When written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger and the other represents opportunity.
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    • Profile picture of the author tommyp
      Originally Posted by firstdrum View Post

      When written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger and the other represents opportunity.
      You don't even have to go into Chinese (whichever language or dialect) to extrapolate that from the word.

      In English

      Crisis:

      1. a stage in a sequence of events at which the trend of all future events, esp. for better or for worse, is determined; turning point.


      from the Greek

      Krísis:

      separation, judgment


      People generally don't know most words by their real definitions but instead define words according to some context by which they came to have an understanding of it.

      That's why in the case of the word 'crisis' people think negatively because the context in which they learned the word was most likely negative. Another example of such a word might be 'judge', etc.

      That's what I've come to think anyway.
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  • Profile picture of the author iplusgold
    One important thing to define, firstly, is what exactly a recession is...for those of you that are not aware, a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. The problem with anything like that is you only know your in a reccession after its already started.

    IMHO the recession will last until we stop the logjam on the global financial credit markets and this is something that is going to take some time. The credit markets are almost at a standstill at the moment and the stimulus packages are only now starting to push and have an effect.

    I personally think that we will see a recession until late 2009. I'm almost expecting that the final quarter for the year will be a positive one just before christmas.

    anyway thats my 2 cents
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  • Profile picture of the author Izethas
    Don't kow about 10 years , but for now it gets deeper and it will last for at least 18 more months. Recession affects middle class the most, because wealthy people are still wealthy. Try not to focus on that! There are smart people that are taking advantage in times like this and actually thrive. Im trying to be one of these people
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  • Profile picture of the author BizBooks
    I participate in the recession.... but not in the way others are.

    George Soros is participating too... did you see how much he made in the last year?
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  • Profile picture of the author cncbuss
    Well put, Jason. Choose not to participate. I'm from the Montreal region and cannot say the current economic crisis has affected me much. I still have my house and job. But I have preaching the same thing from the very beginning of the bad news - There is opportunity in bad economic times.

    So, the fact that most of us are doing something to advance our personal wealth says that we are not the type to sit back and just wait for a recession to end before opening up for business.

    Remember one thing. In any economic climate, there is always a market for Jags, Mercedes and RollsRoyces.
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  • Profile picture of the author Oracle_320th
    I participate in the recession.... but not in the way others are.

    George Soros is participating too... did you see how much he made in the last year
    BizBooks is right, use this recession for your own advantage. I know several groups that are buying houses all over US since the price is so low now. Don't get me wrong, they are not millionaire or anything like that. They combine their savings and forming one group so they can have enough fund to buy many houses.
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  • Profile picture of the author bgmacaw
    I think that there is a strong political incentive by some to continue the current economic crisis for many years, just as there was in the 1930's. As some have said, "No reason to waste a good crisis." (Yes, I'm of the Hayek, Rothbard and Rand school of thought).

    Political power calculations aside, I do think that we will have some economic fallout until 2010 but things should continue to improve throughout this year. This recession will be a bit longer and deeper than recent ones but we're already beginning to see some signs of recovery.

    As for 'not participating in the recession' there are two things to consider.

    First, while you may not be participating, your customer base may well be. Therefore, your marketing will need to take the current economic climate into account. Secondly, the government may make you a participate even if you don't want to. Somebody's got to pay that bailout bill and guess who's going to get stuck with the check.
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  • Profile picture of the author Steadyon
    If you are one of the herd then yes the recession can be bad news.

    If you decide to not let it affect you and take steps accordingly then no real problems. In fact probably more opportunities.

    The recession will end when the REAL powers that be decide it should end and then they will allow the media to promote the good news etc...

    Only when they have put in place more banking rules and regulations, took greater control of offshore banking, created "good" reasons to put up taxes and done whatever else they have in mind for the masses, will they allow the recession to end.

    Cynical? Yes.

    True? Yes.
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  • Profile picture of the author Michael Oksa
    Not everything is in recession. It just depends what you're measuring.

    There is always growth somewhere.

    It seems like a frivilous exercise to ask when the "recession" will be over. None of us will be right anyway, and, ultimately, it doesn't matter.

    The better question is: How can you profit in any type of economy?

    All the best,
    Michael
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    • Originally Posted by Michael Oksa View Post

      Not everything is in recession. It just depends what you're measuring.

      There is always growth somewhere.

      It seems like a frivilous exercise to ask when the "recession" will be over. None of us will be right anyway, and, ultimately, it doesn't matter.

      The better question is: How can you profit in any type of economy?

      All the best,
      Michael
      so how really can we profit in any type of economy?
      that's the right question
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  • Profile picture of the author new guy
    You are all free to proceed as you like but I have decided not to participate in the current recession.

    In fact, I see it as a good thing because I should have a larger pool of talent to outsource to.
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  • Profile picture of the author JMB
    There is room to profit from a recession; so many job-cuts have led consmers to alternatives: i.e. making money from home, and thats where we supply the demand :-)

    But, if you have an offer, the opportunity cost is to lower your prices significantly, otherwise there is no hope in capturing any 'consumer surplus'. With targeted traffic, affordable prices, there is definately no recession to stop you making money!

    Furthermore, a long recession could lead to a depression, in turn increasing demand for making money alternatively...

    :-)
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  • Profile picture of the author Kunle Olomofe
    Positive thinking aside folks (and I'm a PT man myself), there IS a recession in economic terms, the fact you haven't felt it means your world is pretty small compared to the whole world. People are losing their jobs and livelihoods because of this stuff. Tell THEM there is no recession and don't offer an immediate solution and you're just a preacher making positive noises. Having said that, there are some ways to make money while many of the other ways open to many folks are closing up... not all of them will find the way. I think it's a little pompous to say the least to talk like nothing bad is happening to others beyond their control. Pride comes before every fall, ask the world governments, they thought they had it all under control, PT, and all the pecks... also ask the titanic, you have to be ON THE BALL during any period recession or no, and when things are tight for millions of more people BECAUSE world economy is suffering it's not cool to be so smug about it... situations have a way of reversing themselves beyond our control.

    Anyway having said all that, look for ways out, but don't be overconfident, not all your ideas and businesses will work especially if you will be dealing with the real world.

    As to the OP's question, I don't know, how can I know, if I knew that, I'd rule the world.

    No one knows, if they did, THEY'd rule the world.

    I heard a rumor though, but I'm not adding to the speculations, just get your house in order, don't be smug and/or complacent, and help as many others in cash and kind as you can... I'm sure's there more to say, I'll let someone else say it.

    Gotta jet,

    Kunle
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    • Originally Posted by Kunle Olomofe View Post

      Positive thinking aside folks (and I'm a PT man myself), there IS a recession in economic terms, the fact you haven't felt it means your world is pretty small compared to the whole world. People are losing their jobs and livelihoods because of this stuff. Tell THEM there is no recession and don't offer an immediate solution and you're just a preacher making positive noises. Having said that, there are some ways to make money while many of the other ways open to many folks are closing up... not all of them will find the way. I think it's a little pompous to say the least to talk like nothing bad is happening to others beyond their control. Pride comes before every fall, ask the world governments, they thought they had it all under control, PT, and all the pecks... also ask the titanic, you have to be ON THE BALL during any period recession or no, and when things are tight for millions of more people BECAUSE world economy is suffering it's not cool to be so smug about it... situations have a way of reversing themselves beyond our control.

      Anyway having said all that, look for ways out, but don't be overconfident, not all your ideas and businesses will work especially if you will be dealing with the real world.

      As to the OP's question, I don't know, how can I know, if I knew that, I'd rule the world.

      No one knows, if they did, THEY'd rule the world.

      I heard a rumor though, but I'm not adding to the speculations, just get your house in order, don't be smug and/or complacent, and help as many others in cash and kind as you can... I'm sure's there more to say, I'll let someone else say it.

      Gotta jet,

      Kunle
      nice words mate
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      • Profile picture of the author Hammerman
        Probably when all the gloom and doom stories that are being thrown around by the news media start to be replaced by some more positive stories. Granted, there are some definite underlying factors that have caused a retraction in spending and in perceived values of real estate and commodities, but the fear and uncertainty caused by all the negative talk has caused people to just stop spending. Even if they have the money, and need the products, they don't buy. That, in turn causes a downward spiral. Uncertainty, no spending, lower profits, cost cutting measures, layoffs, hyped up stories about lay-offs, more uncertainty, less consumer confidence, more scaled back spending, lower profits still, more cost cutting, more lay-offs, more gloom and doom stories and so on and so on. I realise that this is an oversimplification, but but it really cuts to how it got this bad, this quickly. As they say, sometimes too much information can be a bad thing!
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        • Profile picture of the author Kunle Olomofe
          Originally Posted by Hammerman View Post

          the fear and uncertainty caused by all the negative talk has caused people to just stop spending. Even if they have the money, and need the products, they don't buy. That, in turn causes a downward spiral. As they say, sometimes too much information can be a bad thing!
          Very true hammerman,

          I even heard somewhere and i agree, that rather than hoard your money in the hopes of saving it, spend it wisely on fresh investments that are likely to bloom because it is likely that saved money will depreciate in value rather than appreciate.

          This is really happening with people I've met, they are saving money rather than investing it, and guess what, everyday that has gone by has caused their savings to be worth less in forex terms and often generally locally.

          Spend it. But spend it wisely. You may make mistakes but it's better to take a calculated chance than to wonder if you ever did have a chance at all.

          Cheers,

          Kunle
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      • Profile picture of the author Mark McClure
        It'll be over when:

        1- TV's Talking Hairdo Set Are Fully and openly invested in Gold, other PMs and commodities.

        2- The doom market for copywriters has been incinerated :-0

        3- Your CC Payment processor offers RMB as the currency of choice :->

        (The above is for edutational use only and should not be taken as financial advice for numbskills ready to go into hock for the rest of their natural born lives etc.)
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  • Profile picture of the author Kunle Olomofe
    Positive thinking aside folks (and I'm a PT man myself), there IS a recession in economic terms, the fact you haven't felt it means your world is pretty small compared to the whole world. People are losing their jobs and livelihoods because of this stuff. Tell THEM there is no recession and don't offer an immediate solution and you're just a preacher making positive noises. Having said that, there are some ways to make money while many of the other ways open to many folks are closing up... not all of them will find the way. I think it's a little pompous to say the least to talk like nothing bad is happening to others beyond their control. Pride comes before every fall, ask the world governments, they thought they had it all under control, PT, and all the pecks... also ask the titanic, you have to be ON THE BALL during any period recession or no, and when things are tight for millions of more people BECAUSE world economy is suffering it's not cool to be so smug about it... situations have a way of reversing themselves beyond our control.

    Anyway having said all that, look for ways out, but don't be overconfident, not all your ideas and businesses will work especially if you will be dealing with the real world.

    As to the OP's question, I don't know, how can I know, if I knew that, I'd rule the world.

    No one knows, if they did, THEY'd rule the world.

    I heard a rumor though, but I'm not adding to the speculations, just get your house in order, don't be smug and/or complacent, and help as many others in cash and kind as you can... I'm sure's there more to say, I'll let someone else say it.

    Gotta jet,

    Kunle
    Signature
    Celebrity Marketing Formula - How To Quickly Become A Celebrated Authority In ANY Industry/Niche... Coming Soon.
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  • Profile picture of the author Bev Clement
    How do you know there is still a recession, how do you know that today isn't the day it turned around? Only because of the hype you are being fed. Only in hindsight will you know when it ended, and what if that day was today, are you missing it because you're worried about when it will end.
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  • Profile picture of the author tj
    Well - IBM is acting like normal - sending 5000 more jobs to India. So there cannot be recession.

    Timo
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  • Profile picture of the author James Schramko
    don't worry about things you cannot change.

    You can however change how you react to it.

    Most of your success will come from your own mindset and attitude.

    Find a way to deliver value to lots of people.

    In my case, I am sticking with my continual goal of solving peoples problems.
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  • Profile picture of the author jayden.fellze
    Global recession is just a challenge, and i think 10 years is not a correct counting that we may be uplifted. It is but a challenge for us, and i think everyone is trying their best to stand up from the downfall.
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  • Profile picture of the author Quentin
    I reject your reality and substitute my own which I think was a quote from the Myth Busters.

    Having visited many countries around the world I can say with confidence that it can get a lot worse yet or it could get better.

    The point is not when it will end or how deep it can go but what are you going to do as a human being to make your world more effective in helping those around you. Money has very little to do with this.

    I have seen people happy who have virtually nothing which is an attitude not an economic state. In the last few months I have seen people here in Australia who thought they were safe loose every thing as their investments crashed. Nobody is safe.

    Just now on the news another big investment company closed it doors which will affect a lot of people.

    In the hills in one country I met boys and girls who had lost their entire family and had nothing but they banded together and formed a new family. Sure there were scars but their parents had taught them the importance of family and looking out for each other.

    Get you brain, your heart and your priorities in order then no matter what happens you will survive.

    Quentin
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  • Profile picture of the author Steadyon
    Perhaps we should start the bartering system up again.

    I am in the middle of developing plans to grow my own wheat, raise chickens, a few cows, a couple of goats and a few pigs.

    I also have a number of rows of potatoes all ready to go.

    By the way, I have a large patch of tulips in my garden and before anyone asks, 1 tulip is worth 5 cows or 11 pigs or 12 goats.
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  • Profile picture of the author Rajul kaushik
    If you consider my 2 cents:

    The recession has actually emerged from US. Why is that? It's because the governance there runs after power. What drives power? It's the money! More money induces greed and this greed one day surfaces as a stark, blatant truth and it's then: everyone starts taking corrective measure> tightening controls, checking expenditure, watching bonus payouts etc etc.

    This recession is a result of weak sentiments. The rich class is getting weary of losing: so they are not spending and to safeguard their wealth: they are penalising the lower class.

    Every govt. should follow the foot steps of Singaporean govt: strict directive to industry: no lay offs........just cut pay all across the board>>> higher cuts at higher levels and lower percentage cuts at lower level. If this approach is adopted then the recession would get over within a year...........otherwise it might take a couple of years.
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