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OK, call it. Time of death for the PC, May 28, 2013.

by Joe Mobley
56 replies
IDC had previously pegged the PC market loss at 1.3 percent, but has updated it to 7.8 percent-a record loss for a single year if the prediction comes true.
I know that I am pushing more of my business to the Internet for 2 reasons:

1) To make it easier for VA's to do more of the work I am doing.

2) To see if I can move to a tablet based business.

R.I.P. PC? A Closer Look At Gloomy IDC Forecast - Forbes

Joe Mobley
#2013 #call #death #time
  • Profile picture of the author Steve B
    Joe, if you're saying that PCs won't be relevant tomorrow I think you will wake up and find yourself with a lot fewer prospects.

    Steve
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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
      You're probably right Steve.

      A lot of this depends on how you define PC but you make a valid point.

      I think that this article points out the faster-than-expected decline in sales of the home desktop or tower.

      Joe Mobley


      Originally Posted by Steve B View Post

      Joe, if you're saying that PCs won't be relevant tomorrow I think you will wake up and find yourself with a lot fewer prospects.

      Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author Horny Devil
    Banned
    I wouldn't be overly concerned. There's a big chunk of the global population who don't even own a PC yet, let alone a Tablet, and that includes people in developed countries. The transition period is going to be a long one, by my "guestimation" 5-15 years. Plenty long enough to make your fortune online, and then sit back observing technological developments with a wry smile . . . on your sun lounger.
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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
      I think "death for the PC" may be a bit strong but this article points out what most of know is already underway.

      Joe Mobley

      Originally Posted by Horny Devil View Post

      I wouldn't be overly concerned. There's a big chunk of the global population who don't even own a PC yet, let alone a Tablet, and that includes people in developed countries. The transition period is going to be a long one, by my "guestimation" 5-15 years. Plenty long enough to make your fortune online, and then sit back observing technological developments with a wry smile . . . on your sun lounger.
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    • Profile picture of the author Brandon Tanner
      I can only laugh when I read stuff like this. Show me 1 person out of the millions of professional web designers, programmers, video editors, graphic artists, and the like, who could effectively do their job on a mobile device with a tiny screen.

      Not to mention the millions of office cubicles all around the world, or the millions of retail stores, restaurants, hotels, and countless other types of businesses that require a PC just to function. I could go on and on...

      Sure, mobile devices are getting popular. Crazy popular. But PC's aren't going anywhere. At least not for a very long time.
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  • Profile picture of the author Randall Magwood
    Pure speculation. I doubt if it will ever happen. In the same way that some people still prefer ordering from a telephone instead of online... people will still be using PC's for their day to day and business tasks.
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  • Profile picture of the author Web Etcetera
    It's funny to me when I come upon the "death to the ..." or "is ... dead?" if they were dead or dying would there honestly be that many people still talking about it? While I agree that many people are moving away from the "typical" PC (with tower and monitor) I would say that applies more to the majority of online work from home crowd. But in the offline business world many businesses don't want to hear anything about tablets or laptops. So while they may become tomorrow's dump ground fixtures for those at home I see them staying around for quite some time in the offline business sector.
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  • Profile picture of the author RichBeck
    Joe,

    The Windows PC? Dead?

    If it is dead, I better go tell 99.99% of my clients and the businesses I frequent... They're totally unaware.

    "Technology experts" have been waxing poetic about the move from desktops and laptops to tablets for years.... They are fun "toys"...

    But, trying working for 12 months straight... 70 hours per week on a tablet alone.... Then, come back and tell me how much you liked it... To me, it is an ergonomic nightmare....

    Now, if you're talking about sheer number of devices.... There will be lots more inexpensive tablets and other mobile devices registered than Windows PCs.

    Keep in mind, Granny will not go out and buy a Windows PC.... But, she will have a $100 Android tablet to shop online.

    All The Best,

    Rich Beck BCIP, MCSD, MCIS
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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
      Originally Posted by RichBeck View Post

      But, trying working for 12 months straight... 70 hours per week on a tablet alone.... Then, come back and tell me how much you liked it... To me, it is an ergonomic nightmare....
      My hands and neck hurt just thinking about it.

      I will say that my entire elife (ilife?) is on a laptop and the Internet. If I had to buy another computer tomorrow, it would not be a PC (tower or desktop.)

      I do think that towers and desktop computers will be the staple of business computers. But then that is another subject, or category altogether.

      Joe Mobley
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  • Profile picture of the author celente
    spot on brandon!

    That is correct, PC are not going anywhere!
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  • Profile picture of the author Marc Rodill
    It won't die. There will just be other options. People still use fax machines after all. And read newspapers. There will just be more media to fragment the market. If anything is going to die, it's going to be the offline media that mostly only the aging population reads. As soon as advertisers stop making their ROI. But that's waaaaaay far out into the future. Way past PC's. Personally I can't stand cell phones and tablets, so you know there's more people like me out there. It makes good gossip though.

    Marc

    PS. Nice hook in your signature. I dig it. Okay you can send me my $20. Just kidding.
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  • Profile picture of the author Warrior X
    Likely the PC will evolve into something we haven't dreamt up yet- but the thing that's going to replace it, nah, haven't seen it yet.
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    • Profile picture of the author Marc Rodill
      Originally Posted by Warrior X View Post

      Likely the PC will evolve into something we haven't dreamt up yet- but the thing that's going to replace it, nah, haven't seen it yet.
      Like a spaceship. Or pretty soon we'll all live virtually inside of our PC's. There's a growing trend of people who stay home all day anyway.
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      • Profile picture of the author celente
        Originally Posted by Marc Rodill View Post

        Like a spaceship. Or pretty soon we'll all live virtually inside of our PC's. There's a growing trend of people who stay home all day anyway.
        yes, already looking at sending the wife away for the weekend so me and teh boys can hang out and drink in our virtual tiddy bar lounge room. Free lap dances for all with any sort of women you want, even red head fem bots.

        I am in love with the future already. Do not let the wife see this post please. LOL :p
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  • Profile picture of the author Warrior X
    Or pretty soon we'll all live virtually inside of our PC's
    Pretty much do that already
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  • Profile picture of the author Marc Rodill
    Celente I hate to admit this but based off of your Warrior username, I thought you were a chick in the first place. But probably when it comes to marketing stuff, you're safe she isn't going to read any of that stuff. That's what you call stereotyping right there. But at least it's somewhat factual.
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    • Profile picture of the author Horny Devil
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      Originally Posted by Marc Rodill View Post

      Celente I hate to admit this but based off of your Warrior username, I thought you were a chick in the first place.
      He/she could be a chick. With a name like that I'd guess, "Madam Whiplash". But he/she is qualified to talk on trends . . .

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  • Profile picture of the author Marc Rodill
    Well played, sir. Well played. Is that really him? That would awesome.
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  • Profile picture of the author celente
    just so you guys know, I am NOT GERALD CELENTE.

    And I a not a female, at least....not the last time I checked!
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    • Profile picture of the author Marc Rodill
      Originally Posted by celente View Post

      just so you guys know, I am NOT GERALD CELENTE.

      And I a not a female, at least....not the last time I checked!
      Only in your dreams. By the way, Gerald, I believe we have all just found a new nickname for you. As long as our PC's don't go obsolete by tomorrow, you might here it from me in the future.

      PS. In response to Mike, we all know Joe is actually Tony Bradley.

      Okay I'm kidding.
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  • Profile picture of the author Mike Anthony
    Joe You've fallen for a link bait title. Even the author is not calling it when you read the article. Best he goes is "perhaps". We are nowhere near the death of the PC and the most likely scenario is that home PCs will just become home servers/entertainment boxes that tablets will sync with.
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  • Profile picture of the author Tim_Carter
    Part of the problem is that if you have a PC that was manufactured in 2007 or later with a dual core processor and decent memory, it does most things people need. They won't upgrade until it dies.

    (Says the guy who runs his internet business on a 2007 dual core with Windows 7. And I do video recording and rendering all month. If I don't need to upgrade most people don't need to either.)
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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
      This is an excellent point, Tim.

      My laptop has a dual core CPU with plenty of memory. While I do not edit videos or play games, my laptop has more than enough power to run well for several more years.

      As an aside, I do not count laptops with the PCs mentioned in the article. I think of a PC as a desktop or tower computer that is pretty much stationary.

      Joe Mobley

      Originally Posted by Tim_Carter View Post

      Part of the problem is that if you have a PC that was manufactured in 2007 or later with a dual core processor and decent memory, it does most things people need. They won't upgrade until it dies.

      (Says the guy who runs his internet business on a 2007 dual core with Windows 7. And I do video recording and rendering all month. If I don't need to upgrade most people don't need to either.)
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  • Profile picture of the author Lizzi
    21st march 2034 is my guess ;p
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  • Profile picture of the author Woodward82
    Yes, what is defined as a PC something that isnt mobile?

    Do we consider the way TV's are moving to full internet browser?

    Or

    The fact that desktop technology has slowed down quite a bit while mobile devices and laptops are catching up with them?

    Before I could buy a desktop and in 3 months some programs just wouldnt run on them.. While tech is still rapidly growing its just not as fast in the type of hardware that makes things obsolete as they use to be
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  • Profile picture of the author Brandon Modrov
    I try very hard myself to limit the computer use but I just cant get my work done without one so at least for me I will always use one. I however have gone MAC and haven't looked back!
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  • Profile picture of the author Michel_Snook
    Last time I looked, mobile phones accounted for 17% of all online searches. That means 83% are still being done on a laptop or PC. And that is still a large, majority number.

    If anything, people have become more diversified with technology using both means depending upon their immediate needs at that moment (at a desk or on the go). I cannot imagine being without my laptop PC and the same goes for many others.
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  • Profile picture of the author Rbtmarshall
    remember the y2k scare? :rolleyes:

    I bet the person who wrote that article prepped for it.
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    • Profile picture of the author celente
      Originally Posted by Rbtmarshall View Post

      remember the y2k scare? :rolleyes:

      I bet the person who wrote that article prepped for it.
      oh yeah that was hella bad....we lost the.....and the...... hey hang on a minute it was so calm, and quiet that day, except you could hear all those skeptics laugh in the next town! haha.
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    • Profile picture of the author John Romaine
      Originally Posted by Rbtmarshall View Post

      remember the y2k scare? :rolleyes:
      We had booklets here in Australia with devices that could potentially be "affected".

      On that list .........mowers. :rolleyes:
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      • Profile picture of the author Martin Luxton
        Echoing what Tim Carter said, PC's seem to have a longer life than tablets and phones.

        Check out "planned obsolescence" Planned obsolescence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia to see one of the reasons why.

        In the last 14 years I've only had two PC's. I've been through 8 phones, and never had a laptop that lasted much more than 3 years.

        And beware of the hype about going mobile. A very small percentage of people use their mobile phone for important transactions. And of them, a lot of them wait till they go home to watch a video or do financial transactions on their desktop or laptop.

        Martin
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  • Profile picture of the author GforceSage
    As long as nothing happens to the VCR, I'll be fine.
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  • Profile picture of the author John Romaine
    Try programming 10,000 lines of javascript on an iPad.

    Not happenin'
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  • Profile picture of the author LastingLifeSuccess
    I dough know, Joe. Seems like there are still lots of folks who like to sit down at a desk or table top where their PC is and dig in. I know I do. And, I have a tablet as well, but I do almost all of my real work on my double monitor PC. I really enjoy the pixel real estate!

    Hum. . . .

    LLS
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  • Profile picture of the author troy23
    What is predicted to die in a few years is the tablet.
    Just like the net book came and went.
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  • Profile picture of the author Sarevok
    The popularity of desktops worldwide may be on the rise; but bear in mind that the majority of populations globally without Internet access at this point aren't spending significant quantities of money anytime soon. (What I'm trying to indicate, is that they're in all probability not your target audience).

    On the other hand, developers and gamers will always be on desktops.

    And so will the hardcore nerds.

    And older generation.

    The new kids on the block? They'll prefer their little handheld devices I'm sure.

    I'm already noticing a massive increase in "mobile" impressions each time I blast to my email lists, so yeah it's definitely a variable of consideration.

    But people still love desktops. They're easier man. Can't do much on a tiny screen with a tiny keyboard. (I'm fat fingered and can't imagine reading on anything but my 27" monitors).

    Winner: Mobile Devices, round 3 KO stoppage. We're talking a MMA sanctioned bout of 3 rounds. (Translation, desktops are prominent for another decade at least).

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  • Profile picture of the author Social App Zone
    So this is it.. I am working on my P.C waiting for the final hour. Will it be the blue screen of death? or will the army of ipads in the next room drag it out and burn it?
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  • Profile picture of the author Anton543
    I always work on the desktop or laptop when I want to be really productive but use the tablet for browsing, checking emails. For me the tablet is a more of an entertainment device and something to use for convenience, like when you're out and about.
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  • Profile picture of the author Anton543
    By the way, tablets are essentially PCs anyway. For example, when I next replace laptop, I will buy one of those laptop/tablet hybrids. To me that's just a laptop (PC) that you can take with you when you are out or feel like working while laying down on the bed. It's all the same really.
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  • Profile picture of the author Paul Clark
    I think the time to worry will be when the market for external keyboards, mice and large monitors dries up...
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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
      Interestingly, I use a wireless keyboard and mouse with my laptop.

      Joe Mobley

      Originally Posted by Paul Clark View Post

      I think the time to worry will be when the market for external keyboards, mice and large monitors dries up...
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  • Profile picture of the author Virtualghost
    Sorry I like my commodore 64 and refuse to give it up no matter what other people are using.
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  • Profile picture of the author keyon
    I think there will always be a healthy Marketplace out there for technology that is supposedly obsolete. The only thing different now is that big business giants who made their fortunes with the older technology are now making a couple billion dollars less each year then they used to. But they're still making billions of dollars.
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  • Profile picture of the author Sornie Samante
    Not sure..
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    • Profile picture of the author Fredbou
      Just retired my trusty desktop PC, but have 2 laptops that will be my workhorses. My tablet is just a fun/relaxation thing for me, too small and inadequate for serious work.
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  • Profile picture of the author kinyash
    PC's are not going anywhere in the near future. There are lots of users whose work cannot be carried out on the tablet.
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  • Profile picture of the author malia
    Here's what I think:

    As the tablet use replaces computer use for the lower hanging fruit of computer users, you will see a great chasm between those who can master computer use vs those that are tablet/device reliant.

    It will be like it was in the 80s and 90s where there was a digital divide between those who HAD computers and internet and those who didn't.

    I get where people are going, but there is a tendency to think that people glued to devices are equally as competent with a computer and most are not. This is going to fool the device dependent into thinking they have skills that they do not have.
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  • Profile picture of the author dsouravs
    So that article only included the G8 group of nations.

    What about developing countries of Asia, E.Europe, USSR, Latina and Africa...
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  • Profile picture of the author Victor Edson
    Before the tablet takes over, something new will likely arise.

    Google glass, which bombed.... wasn't that thing.

    But what's coming next? (dun, dun, dunnnnn)
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  • Profile picture of the author Brian Tayler
    In relation to the tablet vs PC debate (internet vs desktop hosting)... I think we'll also see a shift (not sure if small or large) from "cloud computing" a recent fad that doesn't deliver on its promises and not really needed in most applications (but really just selling now for no reason other than marketing).
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    • Profile picture of the author JohnMcCabe
      Originally Posted by Martin Luxton View Post

      In the last 14 years I've only had two PC's. I've been through 8 phones, and never had a laptop that lasted much more than 3 years.
      I've had the opposite experience. I can't seem to get more than 2-3 years out a tower, but my wife is still using the laptop we bought in 2005. That would be 2003, but the hinges broke on the screen lid.

      I finally made the switch to a laptop, but when I'm at my desk there is a keyboard, mouse and second monitor plugged in.

      Originally Posted by Martin Luxton View Post

      And beware of the hype about going mobile. A very small percentage of people use their mobile phone for important transactions. And of them, a lot of them wait till they go home to watch a video or do financial transactions on their desktop or laptop.

      Martin
      I think that as more stories hit the news (and fictional TV shows) about crooks using electronic snoopers to steal credit card numbers and such from the chips in the cards, coupled with the new phone gimmick where you can transfer files by touching the phones together, people will be more paranoid about using phones for sensitive transactions.
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  • Profile picture of the author wisdomoto
    Don't even get me started. You can do so much more on a PC than you can on a tablet.

    The "apps" on tablets are a lot of the time more limited than their desktop counterparts.

    Tablets are good for surfing the web on the couch, reading an ebook or editing the odd word doc but try using Photoshop efficiently on a tablet.

    Not to mention that PCs are a whole lot more powerful, and individual parts can be upgraded. When faster components like processors come out PCs can be upgraded while with a tablet you would have to keep buying newer and better tablets to keep up.

    Tablets are great and they will keep getting better but PCs will have an edge in many areas for ages to come.
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