Video Marketing Controversy - Where Do YOU Stand?

I own about every video marketing course and software that has come out over the last three years. Many of them are great, some of them OK, a few of them are really, really bad.

I buy them because:

1. I publish a lot of videos and I like to stay up-to-date.
2. Even the really, really bad ones sometimes have a "Golden Nugget"
3. Usually they're inexpensive.

There are a lot of different opinions in these courses on how to get and stay on Page 1 of Google and as you probably know...

There is no right way - there are just good and not so good ways.

There is one controversy that has continued since I became involved in video monetization that has to do with keyword research.

One theory says that if there is not a video for your keyword on Page 1 then Google for some reason does not rank videos on Page 1 so don't waste your time trying to rank your video for that keyword (unless there are just no videos for your keyword (or very weak videos).

Another theory says the opposite. If there are no videos on Page 1, then go for it. You will have an easy time ranking.

A third theory says if there are videos on Page 1, don't waste your time trying to rank a new video. Go after another keyword.

Finally, a fourth theory says it's good if there are videos on Page 1 because it proves Google likes videos for that keyword and your SEO abilities will allow you to outrank the other videos.

I have spoken with several other video marketers and we all seem to have our own firm opinions as to which theory is true (including me).

I'm curious what other warriors believe and if they have any examples to back up that belief.

Examples or not, what do you think is the right theory?