Is it typical for conversion rate to drop the 2nd week of each month?

12 replies
I recently launched my information product business and have had pretty consistent conversion rates around 1.5 - 2% almost every day.

But last month my rates were almost 0% from the 8th - 15th, and this month I'm at about 0.3% from the 8th until now (13th).

My conspiracy theory is that people with lower incomes get a paycheck on the 1st and then run out of money around the 8th, after paying rent plus 1 week of expenses. Then they get another paycheck on the 15th and are good to buy stuff for the rest of the month.

Anyone else see this pattern?
#2nd #conversion #conversion rate #drop #information product #marketing #month #rate #typical #week
  • Profile picture of the author lotsofsnow
    Interesting theory but most likely not the correct reason.

    Information products are not necessarily bought by people with lower incomes.

    Actually people with lower incomes run out of money by Monday as they get paid on Friday. Once somebody has a monthly income they are usually no longer in the very low bracket.

    And that you assume people get their monthly paycheck on the 15th is also just some (random) assumption. Some get it on the 1st, others on the 30th. Other on the 4th and others on the 20th.

    The most likely reason: not enough traffic.

    If there is not enough traffic the numbers are simply too low to read any significance into or out of them.
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    • Profile picture of the author brianac
      Originally Posted by hpgoodboy View Post

      Interesting theory but most likely not the correct reason.

      Information products are not necessarily bought by people with lower incomes.

      Actually people with lower incomes run out of money by Monday as they get paid on Friday. Once somebody has a monthly income they are usually no longer in the very low bracket.

      And that you assume people get their monthly paycheck on the 15th is also just some (random) assumption. Some get it on the 1st, others on the 30th. Other on the 4th and others on the 20th.

      The most likely reason: not enough traffic.

      If there is not enough traffic the numbers are simply too low to read any significance into or out of them.
      I was actually thinking of people who get paid twice per month. Once on the 1st, and again around the 15th. The 1st paycheck would be gone quickly because they have to pay rent. The 15th paycheck would last through the month. Hence, lower conversion rates only on the 2nd week of the month.

      Anyway, I thought it was strange because I had consistent sales every day for 3 weeks straight, sandwiched between 1 solid week of almost no sales before and after. It seemed consistent enough to mean something is going on. Just a theory though. I suppose it could just be not enough traffic to mean much.
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      • Profile picture of the author Alaister
        What sample size are you looking at?

        Perhaps the volume isn't statistically significant to be comparing it on a weekly basis like that.

        Where does your traffic come from?
        Has your traffic sources changed? The traffic source is often a big factor in a change of conversions.
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        • Profile picture of the author brianac
          Originally Posted by Alaister View Post

          What sample size are you looking at?

          Perhaps the volume isn't statistically significant to be comparing it on a weekly basis like that.

          Where does your traffic come from?
          Has your traffic sources changed? The traffic source is often a big factor in a change of conversions.
          I have about 500 visitors per week. Is that volume too small to be comparing on a weekly basis?

          It is a pretty drastic difference though from about 2% per week to about 0.4% per week ( I just confirmed these numbers).

          Conversion rates by week:
          4 weeks ago: 0.2%
          3 weeks ago: 1.8%
          2 weeks ago: 1.8%
          1 week ago: 2.1%
          This week: 0.4%

          This is just traffic from my main bing campaign. The only changes I made recently were to pause some keywords that weren't performing well. So I haven't changed the keywords that were converting.
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  • Profile picture of the author hustlinsmoke
    It is typical for conversion rate to fluctuate yes and even hit a dry spell. I think it may be coincidence though that it hit the same time as the last month.
    Only time will tell.
    I myself don't see a difference over long term. We have no idea what your lead product is or your target audience and that could make a difference, I mean maybe its something they need at the first or end of the month.
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    • Profile picture of the author brianac
      Originally Posted by hustlinsmoke View Post

      It is typical for conversion rate to fluctuate yes and even hit a dry spell. I think it may be coincidence though that it hit the same time as the last month.
      Only time will tell.
      I myself don't see a difference over long term. We have no idea what your lead product is or your target audience and that could make a difference, I mean maybe its something they need at the first or end of the month.
      Yeah I think you guys are right, it's probably just fluctuating. I hope you're right. It's just scary to see it drop like that just when you thought you got your first business off the ground.

      FYI its a "how to" guide in the spiritual health niche.
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      • Profile picture of the author Victor Edson
        Originally Posted by brianac View Post

        FYI its a "how to" guide in the spiritual health niche.
        Take a look at the lunar alignment & compare that
        instead of the dates then.

        You'll be really surprised at what you can find in the
        stars that explain the ups and downs of people's
        desire of enlightenment.

        AHHHH... I'm just messin with ya !

        Probably.

        I'm probably messin around.
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  • Profile picture of the author JCorp
    It's different for everyone...

    Whenever I roll out something you new... I'll see what my conversion rate is for every 100 visitors... but that only gives me a basis to work from... it's best to look at conversions over the long haul, say a 30 day period, which gave you X amount of visitors who saw your offer, and then X amount of people who bought which = what conversion rate?

    So it is interesting to see a fairly consistent conversion rate and then all of a sudden a big drop... it happens, but not often.

    One thing to consider and to really look at is what did you change, if anything? What traffic source are you using? And what could have changed with the traffic source? Just some things to think about.
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  • Profile picture of the author actionplanbiz
    what kind of tracking your using?
    did you change up your advertising?
    what made you those sales in the past?
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    • Profile picture of the author brianac
      Originally Posted by actionplanbiz View Post

      what kind of tracking your using?
      did you change up your advertising?
      what made you those sales in the past?
      I have been and still am using Bing ads. All I did is pause keywords that never got any conversions.
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  • Profile picture of the author Alaister
    Yeh I wouldn't be worried.

    But it's good you are noticing things like this. It's important to always know what is going on in your business. At this stage I would be concentrating on building more targeted traffic.
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  • Profile picture of the author ryanbiddulph
    Neat correlation but I'd focus on targeting folks who have more money. This works around your theory, and also, helps you to jump around it

    All the best!
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