Facebook will disappear?

38 replies
Maybe. Here's an interesting article about the future of the Internet

Phase 1 was portals such as Yahoo, which are aggregators of information. Still around, but way down from their hay day.

Phase 2 is where we currently are, social media, of which Facebook is king.

Phase 3? You guessed it - mobile. The gold rush is ON!

News Headlines
#disappear #facebook
  • Profile picture of the author Always-A-Warrior
    It's just one man's word against 800 million Facebook members. Facebook is already mobile and supposedly coming out with their own mobile phone soon.

    Plus Facebook competitor is not Yahoo but instead its Google so this author of this article is way off course.
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    • Profile picture of the author Huskerdarren
      Smart money is that the Facebook phone will be a huge failure. They may feel forced to get in the game, but the field is set between Android/Samsung and Apple/Iphone. There is no way anyone will want to buy a Facebook dedicated phone or adopt a third operating system. There's no way Facebook will limit themselves on the Apple or Android market in order to force people to buy their branded phone. I just don't get it.

      Facebook Phone Faces Uphill Battle - Mobility - Smartphones - Informationweek

      Plus, Facebook may have 800 million registered users, but how many are active. People recognize that Facebook's main intent is to monetize their personal content and that does not sit well with many. My point is that they're becoming distrusted and therefore disliked by the masses. They should be careful with how they move forward. The price of the stock since the IPO is a good indicator of public opinion surrounding the company. When Google went public, the stock took off like a rocket and split several times.
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  • Profile picture of the author lionel5
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    • Profile picture of the author Dalen
      Originally Posted by lionel5 View Post

      facebook is going dawn, fast...
      I do not understand why you think this?
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      • Profile picture of the author nownzen
        Facebook, sadly much like AOL and MySpace will fade in popularity and wane. Right now a recent article I read said that though over 800 million members, regular usage is down over 40%.

        Our short attention spans will most likely have the masses jump on the next big thing.

        Plus, let's not mention the IPO fiasco, admissions that ad revenues fluctuate dramatically and several big time sellers realizing the ads rarely get read. And General Motors slashed their facebook spending my $10 million . . .
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  • Profile picture of the author storageunits
    facebook will not go anywhere soon. I agree with Always-A-Warrior, facebook is already online. Also, facebook is filled with smart people, do you think they would let facebook die? Tom sold myspace and from that point it was all downhill because newscorp didn't care about myspace as Tom did.

    The only thing that facebook is missing is there's no ad on facebook mobile. But they're addressing the problem as we speak
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  • Profile picture of the author mitosblog
    Facebook will be forgotten just like Friendster, Myspace, etc when an even better social networking site or something even spectacular shows up.
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  • Profile picture of the author beeswarn
    If you accept the article's premise, and you also believe the contention that facebook does not have a viable mobile strategy then you have to accept the conclusion that facebook will fade away. Doing so, however, would require you to believe that facebook's board is almost indescribably stupid and I cannot find any reason to believe that.
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    • Profile picture of the author twersk
      Originally Posted by beeswarn View Post

      If you accept the article's premise, and you also believe the contention that facebook does not have a viable mobile strategy then you have to accept the conclusion that facebook will fade away. Doing so, however, would require you to believe that facebook's board is almost indescribably stupid and I cannot find any reason to believe that.
      There is no way of knowing what will happen...but a board does not have to be stupid for its product or service to go downhill. Look at companies like K-Mart or MySpace or even AOL. It was even mentioned in this thread that MySpace being sold was the probable reason for its failure. (As a "smart" board member, how do you combat greed or other people who ARE stupid?)
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    • Profile picture of the author Ryan Popovic
      Originally Posted by beeswarn View Post

      If you accept the article's premise, and you also believe the contention that facebook does not have a viable mobile strategy then you have to accept the conclusion that facebook will fade away. Doing so, however, would require you to believe that facebook's board is almost indescribably stupid and I cannot find any reason to believe that.
      I don't think you can compare Facebook to Friendster and Myspace. Those guys were pioneers, but they made a lot of mistakes. Facebook has made mistakes and will continue to do so, but they have hit the tipping point of users that makes it very difficult to compete on that level. A quarter of the world is on Facebook.
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  • Profile picture of the author NewParadigm
    Facebook will eventually fade and give way to an open source social network. As soon as they start clamping down and wielding their leverage on members and advertisers/promoters(already started) due to being public, pressured to make more money.
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  • Profile picture of the author beeswarn
    I don't believe that facebook does not have a viable mobile strategy. It just seems evident that one wasn't ready to present at the time of the IPO. I expect to see one presented pretty soon.
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  • Profile picture of the author NewParadigm
    Many boards can be notoriously stupid. I sold a company of mine to a fortune 200 and had to deal with them for a year for post sale transition. I was astonished how stupid they really can be, the old boy network enriching themselves, having a great time on the shareholder dime.

    How is mobile going to help facebook with ad revenue? Either there is mobile adverts or there isn't, facebook trying to create an ecosystem such as google is a fail, since they do not have the most key component, search.

    Facebook could have the potential to be even more relevant though, if they crack the code of monetizing peer recommended adverts, but that is in the content. The highest value endorsement of a product or service is one of your friends/family recommending. The question is, how do you reward that, promote it and monetize it while making it organic and not turning everyone into an MLM salesperson selling each other all kinds of stuff?
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  • Profile picture of the author mindofmoses
    I don't think they will disappear. I think the demographic will shift away from young professionals and more towards kids & those with kids - namely those for whom the ability to share photos is the primary draw to social networks.

    I'm *hoping* that mobile browser power increases to the point where it's a truly viable app platform in itself. Then, competition can really kick in and deliver a social network with "mobile first" design.
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  • Profile picture of the author taylorsmith
    about Facebook i think if they can something like apple technology did they probably have a potential to succeed, about the pinterest is very good example its only a year old but the graphic shows that its growing even faster than Facebook did.
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  • Profile picture of the author prismkuet
    Actually, I don't think so. Mobile could not be the competitor of facebook rather, wide use of smartphone will increase the popularity of facebook. And appeal of these are also different. For searching something you have to go to Yahoo or Google not to facebook.
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  • Profile picture of the author BlackIrish
    It won't disappear, just lose it's relevance. But that happens to all industries once 5-10-20 years go by.
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  • Profile picture of the author Habibie
    ive just see it on twitter trending topics "R.I.P. Facebook"

    people are sick with facebook with timeline, fake account and many of them are selling shoes, phone and etc. Many people just love facebook for they photo album, and so do i. and yes twitter are give new way of communication thats makes facebook looks so old fashoned.

    i think facebook will die in developed countries, and live in poor countries... CMIIW
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  • Profile picture of the author seoconsulting1
    If facebook ever disapears there will always been another social network that takes its place. It's an invaluable place to store photos for holiday makers that are scared they are going to loose there camera. Also an amazing place to keep in contact with friends all over the world. Unfortuantly alot of government agencies are using it as a source of data to keep tabs on people. I doubt these picture orientated social networks will overtake facebook like pinterest.
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  • Profile picture of the author KingMedia
    Since FB's IPO, their price for running advertising has tripled.

    So it seems they only care about the deep pockets and not the small time marketers like most of us here.

    Plus they did away with sending your traffic to a direct app on your page.

    And their timeline is a clunky CPU hog!

    Something else will come along eventually and most folks will gravitate towards that.
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    • Profile picture of the author Huskerdarren
      Originally Posted by KingMedia View Post

      Since FB's IPO, their price for running advertising has tripled.

      So it seems they only care about the deep pockets and not the small time marketers like most of us here.

      Plus they did away with sending your traffic to a direct app on your page.

      And their timeline is a clunky CPU hog!

      Something else will come along eventually and most folks will gravitate towards that.
      I'll be interested to see how this plays out. How will Facebook get us to look at ads? Will they do popup windows that won't close for a few seconds? There's always the sidebar, but I don't think that's very successful. I found it telling that GM pulled out just before the IPO because they don't think it is worthwhile advertising. People like Facebook for their friends and photos, but the advertising needs to be careful that it doesn't get to be a big annoyance. Then the fringe users just start to fade away.
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  • Profile picture of the author William Maloney
    It is true, those 3 phases are real but they will always exist. Yahoo - it's phase 1, but still - they are online and making a lot of money; now, we're at phase 2 - the social media is gaining more power as days pass by, Facebook can't fall - they are way too high and too powerful. There will be a lot of phases but all of them are important in their way, none will collapse. At least, that's my opinion.
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  • Profile picture of the author rezaafriadi
    Someday, Facebook will be forgotten like the other social networks before its time.
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  • Profile picture of the author Amod Oke
    Timeline was the stupdest thing ever. No one wants to see when I was born or what I did 10 years ago.... and even if anyone does, FB wants users to scroll down to find it!!??? Don't they know how lazy people are!

    FB owes its success to status updates, that's how they gobbled up orkut and other networks. And now the timeline is so complicated to view with posts on both sides instead of the simple linear look. Something like what G has done to the serp's, adwords and other cr** everywhere!! Give me some results G!

    It happens to all big companies who are greedy and go for an IPO. That's why I always support small family owned and run businesses! At least, someone cares in there!
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  • Profile picture of the author MotiveTeresa
    I think someday FB will fade, just like everything else. But it's not at that stage yet, so don't worry too much about the future and focus on the present! Right now you can make money on both FB and mobile!
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  • Profile picture of the author layer
    Now that FB has gone public I think they will disappear as more and more pressure is put on staff to add more and more ads. It's on it's way out.
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  • Profile picture of the author BlackWar
    Banned
    I don't think that Facebook will disappear within next few years.
    Because now a days peoples are more busy than past,
    they've not enough time to connect with every well wisher individually,
    so here you must have need a common social network to save your valuable time.
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  • Profile picture of the author vigossqi
    Even if google and yahoo disappear, facebook is still exist on Internet. This article is absolute nonsense, so I dont wanna say any more.
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  • Profile picture of the author Media spider
    The IT world is moving, in the future facebook will disappear.
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  • facebook is going to be around because they can adapt....just as long as they can adapt then they will be king
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  • Profile picture of the author 4webmaster
    It will never disapear but will not be as the leader in social network as it is now. That's the fact on each and every strartup we've seen since the web exist. There are Yahoo then now Google. There was Myspace then now Facebook. There was Napster then now Megaupload (closed) then many other... So as far as there will always be genius tech guys and big IT business it will never end to a fixed web business. Facebook is at his top since years just like Google but things can change with people using internet differently everyday, if they don't adapt to end user, they will die or a competitor will kill them. The problem with Facebook is that it is really niche to a specific kind of uses (post, make friends, comment...) look at recent pinterest that is also specific and is growing because end users is seeking for something different. As you see Instagram bought by Facebook because people are not just doing FB but other stuff and it can harm FB in future so they bought it just in case.
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  • Profile picture of the author Alex Mensah
    Facebook or myspace will probably be forgotten about exactly like Friendster, Myspace, etc any time a straight superior social network website or even one thing perhaps amazing occurs. acebook will certainly sooner or later lose colour and allow strategy to the wide open source facebook and myspace. When that they commence clamping down.
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  • Profile picture of the author JagSEO
    I'm looking forward to seeing a social network with capability of Facebook connecting with people, capability of twitter with its real time and capability of Youtube with it's video. All in one. I will call it Updatez. Updating what's going on with your life through video using mobile phones.
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  • Profile picture of the author teamheroic
    it may be true that facebook will be replaced, but no matter what there will be another social networking site available. social networking is a way of life, hundreds of thousands of people use social networking sites for multiple hours a day, every day!
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  • Profile picture of the author seosoldier
    I keep hearing how great it is (or was) to advertise on Facebook but when I tried it I found it to give me much less success than AdWords even though Facebook allowed me to target certain areas and age ranges. Anyone else find Facebook ads less than effective? (This was in a health related area.)
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    • Profile picture of the author Huskerdarren
      Originally Posted by seosoldier View Post

      I keep hearing how great it is (or was) to advertise on Facebook but when I tried it I found it to give me much less success than AdWords even though Facebook allowed me to target certain areas and age ranges. Anyone else find Facebook ads less than effective? (This was in a health related area.)
      I've never used it but I have read articles that say it isn't very effective. Personally, I find ads targeted at me to be very intrusive and annoying, probably because I am on my own personal Facebook page and know that they are mining my data to serve up the ads. Not looking at them is sort of a backlash. GM pulled all of their ads prior to the IPO, so that was certainly newsworthy.
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  • Profile picture of the author WillR
    Facebook was one of the biggest IPO flops ever. If that's any sign of things to come...
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  • Profile picture of the author marketwarrior06
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    It made me laugh nothing else
    I am not saying that FB will be gone and its impossible. I think the popularity will be decreased like HI5 or others but its impossible to be gone
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