2.8%?




..........................

I find the question a bit confusing. Doesn't it depend on how many times you've played the system to get the four wins? And isn't the figure of 70% irrelevant?

Alistair's question was relevant; 4 wins out of 4 attempts is far different than 4 wins out of 40.

Yukon possibly multiplied 0.7 by four, but that's unfortunately not the right approach.

Jimbo13 is correct for the case of four wins out of four: 70%^4 = 24%.

Jimbo13 is on the right path for three wins and a loss, but that's just for one permutation. There are actually four different ways to get three wins and a loss, so you'd multiply his answer by four: 4*(70%^3 * 30%) = 41%.

Since there's an 85% chance that you're going to ask for the other three probabilities: Six ways to get 2W+2L: 6*(70%^2 * 30%^2) = 26%, four ways to get 1W+3L: 4*(70% * 30%^3) = 8%, one way to get 0W+4L: 30%^4 = 1%. Sanity check for all 16 permutations: 24% + 41% + 26% + 8% + 1% = 100%. (Yes, there are decimal places, but I'd bet 50/50 that the original 70% figure isn't likely to be accurate to more than one decimal place in the first place.)

And Trader99 needs to chill when asking for help.

4 wins in a row?

I'm no math expert & I answered a math question at 5:30 AM so you get what you get.

I have no idea how anyone would get 24% for OPs question. That doesn't even look remotely correct, even without a calculator.

Why was OP banned? Is math the new religion?

What You Know About Math? - YouTube

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