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What's oil going to do in the next 6 - 18 months?

by jbolte1976
18 replies
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Hey Warriors just wondering what you thought was going to happen with the price of oil in the next 6 - 18 months. With this huge goverment bailout is the dollar going to go lower? This tends to send oil higher.

I've invested some money in a stock that is drilling in new reserves found in the US, midwest region. Saw a huge runup about the time of $148 oil but (made about 60% in two months) but am down slighty now

I think this is a good long term buy as long as the fundemtals stay strong (I hope).


Any thoughts on what oil going to do??
  • Profile picture of the author myob
    I expect oil price futures to remain comparatively low as demand in the economy slows and more production expectations to come online from offshore drilling.

    My portfolio is heavily into alternative energy stocks and technology, with just a few oil company stock holdings.
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    • Profile picture of the author NMP
      Expect it to drop to 96-98, then way up.
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      • Profile picture of the author ShayB
        I'm not sure what oil prices will do, but I'm buying a bicycle.
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        "Fate protects fools, little children, and ships called Enterprise." ~Commander Riker
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  • Profile picture of the author Indiana
    Banned
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    • Profile picture of the author HeySal
      Can't tell whats going on with OPEC. Indonesia dropped out (or is in the process) and Saudi threatened to walk, too. So I imagine we have to wait to see if OPEC is going to fall apart to start worrying about how much oil will cost.
      I think we should lynch anyone who tries to suppress alternative energy sources. Whether you believe in the C02 scam or not - not being dependent on these yahoos for our transportation is a good thing.

      I myself am sick of people getting in our faces about travel. I don't want to live in my yard 24/7. If we can't have affordable oil, then give us something else - but this "change your lifestyle and stay home" bullshit has got to stop.
      "We drive they starve"? Tell it to the thugs that dissallowed alternatives to surface in industry - I shouldn't have to worry about feeling guilty every time I want to leave town - and it wasn't me that stopped the development of alternatives. We could have more industry, more jobs, and independent energy - but Nooooo - our Admin has major stock in OIL, so that is what they have forced upon us.

      It's time for a few of our own ultimatums. Give us alternatives or get the hell out of our White House and do it NOW.
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      Sal
      When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
      Beyond the Path

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  • Profile picture of the author Andres
    Dude - if you really want to hedge against inflation invest in oil, gold and silver. Precious metals is real money and with the failure of the 700 billion (get me outta jail free card) the dollar will fall in value.

    I plan on investing in Silver it's about $13 per ounce. Gold is about $909 up $40 from last week.

    Anyway that's what I think.
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    and with the failure of the 700 billion (get me outta jail free card) the dollar will fall in value.
    LOL. Yeah ....we're gonna get hammered for this one. LOL. crap.
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    Sal
    When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
    Beyond the Path

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    • Profile picture of the author myob
      Dude,

      LOL! You worried about inflation? The stock market dropped $1.2 TRILLION today. Your get out jail free card is still lying on the floor unpaid.

      PS. I lost a LOT of money today. Do you think my Paulson buddy could bail me out?
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    My hunch is that oil and commodity prices will collapse, and we will enter a long period of deflation rather than inflation. But this is ONLY if the US dolllar holds its value.
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    • Profile picture of the author Andres
      Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

      My hunch is that oil and commodity prices will collapse, and we will enter a long period of deflation rather than inflation. But this is ONLY if the US dolllar holds its value.
      Now that's bleak but you really just don't know what will happen. But in any case it won't be good.
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      • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
        Originally Posted by Andres View Post

        Now that's bleak but you really just don't know what will happen. But in any case it won't be good.
        No Andres, you are mistaken, this is actually good. In Hong Kong as in Japan, we went through years of deflation after our housing bubble burst. Basically shops and restaurants were lowering their prices almost every week. The drop in car prices were even more spectecular. In fact prices of the same greately improved models were much cheaper than 10 years ago.

        So even if your paycheck has decreased, your spending power actually remained the same or even increased. Not only that, the service you get is much better!

        Right now, the situation is that we have high inflation and that is much more threatening, especially if your job is not that secure and your business is not doing that well.

        -Derek
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        • Profile picture of the author Andres
          Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

          No Andres, you are mistaken, this is actually good. In Hong Kong as in Japan, we went through years of deflation after our housing bubble burst. Basically shops and restaurants were lowering their prices almost every week. The drop in car prices were even more spectecular. In fact prices of the same greately improved models were much cheaper than 10 years ago.

          So even if your paycheck has decreased, your spending power actually remained the same or even increased. Not only that, the service you get is much better!

          Right now, the situation is that we have high inflation and that is much more threatening, especially if your job is not that secure and your business is not doing that well.

          -Derek

          Funny thing is that I agree with you. I'm actually against the bailout because it gives these companies in my opinion a 'Get outta jail free card'.

          Case in point the CEO of WAMU who is leaving after 3 weeks on the job is getting $19 million payday. Ok so it wasn't him that saw WAMU allow all these bad loans to make the bank go under but WTF?

          I say bleak because Americans aren't used to hardship. It took Japan nearly 20 years to get out of the recession. That's is a long time, I'm American and 100% proud but once you start messing with the quality of life we enjoy so much - things will look bleak for some time.

          I don't believe the bailout will solve the financial crisis here in the US.

          That's just my opinion.

          Andres
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  • Profile picture of the author bendiggs
    I fully expect that in the next decade we'll see the total collapse of Western civilization and all access to oil and petroleum based products will be virtually non-existant. Being able to manufacture your own biodiesel and work on a diesel vehicle will be the most useful skills to have. I expect it will be a little like this:

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    • Profile picture of the author AndrewCavanagh
      Unless a new, cheap to tap supply of oil is found the cost of oil will continue to rise progressively.

      There may be ups and downs as that price is manipulated by the sellers and buyers of oil but all the indications are that we've reached "peak oil"...the point where we've already used half of the world's easy to tap oil resources.

      The demand for oil is still climbing and as time progresses oil companies will have to tap more expensive forms of oil...deeper oil, shale oil etc.

      So while prices may fluctuate quite a lot expect the price of oil to rise and keep rising in the long term.

      If you're looking at niches to market to this is an interesting area because as oil prices rise the attractiveness of alternative energy sources like solar and wind increases.

      Also other less oil dependant solutions like solar hot water, solar heating, bicycles and home grown food become more attractive too.

      (It's not well known but over half of the oil use for the average household in the USA is expended in growing and transporting the food they eat. As oil prices go up, food and other prices go up leading to inflation.)

      These alternative energy niches and alternative living niches are now experiencing a huge explosion and that is likely to continue.

      Kindest regards,
      Andrew Cavanagh
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      Old School Copy Like This Is BACK & Converting Like Crazy!
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  • Profile picture of the author djarchi
    I don't know but its a shame when here in the USA we have major cities, i.e. Atlanta, running out of gas. That is just inexcusable.
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    Andres, it is just incredible that how polite the waiters and those in customer services became when when had our depression in late 90's. When our economy boomer again, they started being rude again. Now, we can look forward to more decent services again. Of course that is as long as we can afford it!

    Derek
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    • Profile picture of the author myob
      Originally Posted by derekwong28 View Post

      Andres, it is just incredible that how polite the waiters and those in customer servers became when when had our depression in late 90's. When our economy boomer again, they started being rude again. Now, we can look forward to more decent services again. Of course that is as long as we can afford it!

      Derek
      You just hit on a powerful stock indicator! When waiters are polite - buy, because stocks are low, and when they're rude - sell because stocks are high!
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      • Profile picture of the author chicagos
        Banned
        We can to make forecast but I'm sure that a situation now is unpredictable...
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    It is about time that items such as healthcare and education deflates as well. The costs of these have outpaced inflation year after year.

    I would consider the politeness a lagging indicator, since jobs are cut well after stocks recover. I would be much more worried if waiters start talking stock picks to any customers.
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