New Recession?

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Gee feels like we are not out of this one yet and already some are predicting another:

J
#off topic forum
  • he said "For me a double-dip is another recession before we've healed from this recession. ".

    Well, in the stock market, there is something called a dead cat bounce. Peopple see things getting bad, try to pull out, etc... The market crashes! It often crashes TOO quick! People often see bargains, automatic orders may be tripped. The market can SKYROCKET! THAT is the dead cat bounce. OFTEN, at some point, after that, there may be a rally! Some call it a sucker's rally. People join in, etc... They run out of cash, and the market drops AGAIN!

    The ECONOMY does the SAME, but may react slower.

    As far as I am concerned, we are STILL in the sucker's rally! WAIT until the us isn't pumping more money in, housing prices start climbing, the market goes up, and the fed funds rate starts climbing with no real negative effect, and THAT is the recovery. As far as I am concerned, we have had a recession for the past 11 years, it just got worse. It WAS starting to look like it was recovering until 2001, it went back down, and stayed there. 2008 was just worse.

    HECK, SOME will quote like:

    YEAH RIGHT! And HOW do we determine that? With agencies determining rules on GDP and unemployment, inflation, and pumping money into the economy, those numbers aren't really reliable. Even so:

    U.S.'s $13 Trillion Debt Poised to Overtake GDP: Chart of Day - Bloomberg

    Look at the chart! Since late 2008, the GDP is moving at the same rate even as the debt is accelerating. SO, clearly, the REAL GDP is DROPPING! It is like a family that has $60000 more in the bank than they ever had before, but also has $80000 more in debt. Their REAL change is a LOSS of $20,000, but they may feel like they GAINED $60,000!

    Steve
    • [1] reply
    • That's another good example of how statistics can be used or misused with ease.

      A 4.6% increase in price on a commodity that has fallen 20%-60% in some markets is irrelevent to any meaningful comeback.

      And houses are inexplicitly tied to jobs. Those jobs are nowhere on the horizon, and the jobs that are growing by catagory are service jobs that create zero wealth and only drain the cash availible to afford the services.

      Not a pretty picture.

      ~Bill
      • [1] reply
  • Another recession? The only ones not still experiencing the recession are the severely wealthy. This is not another recession - this is just further decline. Just like the jobs market was tooted to have been getting better when the only thing that was showing up was over 100,000 very temporary census jobs.
    • [ 1 ] Thanks
  • Well actually I made over 60% in 2009 and 2010 it's been much more than a "Dead cat bounce" it has been a 15 month+ bull market. shame you miseed it trying to call it. See it all the time. What the future holds I have no idea. I am never into "predictions"

    • [1] reply
    • I talked about rallies AFTER the dead cat bounce. It never rallied anywhere near 60%. Of course, even in a DOWN market, you could make MANY times what you start with. You just have to pick a REALLY good stock, or keep churning.

      steve
  • Yeah i remember in 2007 when it all imploded everyne said "6 months and we'll be back" Then it ws 12 months, then 2010 etc.....but the world changed in the crash and I do not think it's ever going back to how it was.
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    New Recession?

    Gee feels like we are not out of this one yet and already some are predicting another: J im Rogers, the market sage, has warned the global economy is just two years away from another recession, but remains ill-prepared to cope with the after-effects.