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Warrior Racing Combination ...

by Alexa Smith Banned
24 replies
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Here you are: don't accuse me of never posting any good sporting news ...

In the 1.50 race at Ayr (that's up in Scotland), Arc Warrior opened at 100/1, shortened to 66/1 and was pulled up with 3 fences still left to jump (i.e. didn't complete the course). :rolleyes:

At Warwick, on the other hand (that's in the middle of England), in the 4.55 race, there was altogether better news for the forum: What A Warrior was the surprise 50/1 winner!
#combination #racing #warrior
  • Profile picture of the author glchandler
    At Warwick, on the other hand (that's in the middle of England), in the 4.55 race, there was altogether better news for the forum: What A Warrior was the surprise 50/1 winner!
    So, how much was your bet?
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    • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
      Banned
      Originally Posted by glchandler View Post

      So, how much was your bet?
      I wish ...

      I don't back under about 4/1 because there's almost never any real value (i.e. reliably assessable difference between true odds and market-available odds) there, and I don't back over about 16/1 because the strike-rates are so low and the losing runs so long that "money management" becomes difficult and dispiriting.
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      • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
        Banned
        War Rom runs tomorrow (there isn't one called "War Room": this is the nearest we'll get), in the 2.40 race at Catterick, a 3-mile-1.5-furlong handicap hurdle. He's a real "stayer" who should go well on the soft ground up there, and won a similar race at Newcastle less than a month ago. His jockey's 7-pound claim will help with the weight and he may go very well ... I'm just saying.
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        • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
          Banned
          Not so bad ... this one came in second at 8/1 (easily backable "each-way" earlier on at 10/1).
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          • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
            Banned
            Just for the sake of listing the system's selections faithfully, Warrior Nation runs tomorrow in the 4.00 race on the "polytrack" all-weather course at Wolverhampton (I wouldn't touch it, myself, for betting purposes).
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            • Profile picture of the author DireStraits
              Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

              (I wouldn't touch it, myself, for betting purposes).
              That horse specifically, or any horse racing on that track?

              And why not? :p

              (I know nothing about horse-racing, but you're a good IM teacher and my ignorance kills me, so spill the beans? ... )
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              • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
                Banned
                Originally Posted by DireStraits View Post

                That horse specifically, or any horse racing on that track?
                Noooooooo, this particular horse, because it's what they call in professional horse-racing circles a "miserable old stinker" (has never actually won a race at all). Nothing wrong with Wolverhampton races, in general.
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                • Profile picture of the author DireStraits
                  Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

                  it's what they call in professional horse-racing circles a "miserable old stinker"
                  LOL. And there was me thinking that that was a label only I used to refer to my "old man".

                  Learn something new every day.
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      • Profile picture of the author JWatson
        Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

        I don't back under about 4/1 because there's almost never any real value (i.e. reliably assessable difference between true odds and market-available odds) there, and I don't back over about 16/1 because the strike-rates are so low and the losing runs so long that "money management" becomes difficult and dispiriting.
        Note to self: Never bet against Alexa. :p
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      • Profile picture of the author ThomM
        Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

        I wish ...

        I don't back under about 4/1 because there's almost never any real value (i.e. reliably assessable difference between true odds and market-available odds) there, and I don't back over about 16/1 because the strike-rates are so low and the losing runs so long that "money management" becomes difficult and dispiriting.
        You should try playing the horses where I go.
        Saratoga Race Course - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

        It's nickname is "The graveyard of Favorites".
        Backing a horse over 16/1 is pretty common there.
        In fact I've seen horses over 30/1 when I'd get in line at the betting window and be down to 4/1 by the time I'd get to the window
        One of the nice things about the track is how close you can get to the jockey's and horses in the paddock before a race.
        I've changed many a bet and won by watching the horses in the paddock before a race.
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        • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
          Banned
          Well, there you have it: Warrior Nation set off at 100/1 and ended up eighth of 12 runners - "held up behind, ridden and effort on wide outside well over 1f out, kept on same pace, never on terms" (which, loosely, translated, means "this miserable old stinker isn't one to watch, for next time out").

          Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

          I've seen horses over 30/1 when I'd get in line at the betting window and be down to 4/1 by the time I'd get to the window
          Eew, talk about an "illiquid market"!!

          Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

          I've changed many a bet and won by watching the horses in the paddock before a race.
          You have to know your horseflesh for this approach; I'm more of a statistical/mathematical player ...
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          • Profile picture of the author ThomM
            Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

            Well, there you have it: Warrior Nation set off at 100/1 and ended up eighth of 12 runners - "held up behind, ridden and effort on wide outside well over 1f out, kept on same pace, never on terms" (which, loosely, translated, means "this miserable old stinker isn't one to watch, for next time out").



            Eew, talk about an "illiquid market"!!



            You have to know your horseflesh for this approach; I'm more of a statistical/mathematical player ...
            I can read a racing form better then a newspaper
            But for some reason when you're at the track at Saratoga the stats don't always hold up. That's why it's called the graveyard of favorites
            I'm also good friends with a trainer who has taught me a lot about 'reading' horses. Still I have a coupe of rules I follow when playing the horses.
            First I only go to the Saratoga track where you can get up close to the horses. Second I only bring the amount of money that I can afford to loose.
            Anybody into horse racing really needs to go to Saratoga at least once.
            Everybody I've talked to from owners to trainers and jockey's say there isn't another track like it.
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            Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
            Getting old ain't for sissy's
            As you are I was, as I am you will be
            You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

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            • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
              Banned
              A bit late announcing it now, but What A Warrior ran again today in the 4.45 race at Uttoxeter and was placed at 11/2 ... :rolleyes:

              On a brighter note, the horse is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, and may be worth following next time out ... :confused:
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              • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
                Banned
                Here's my top racing tip for the weekend:-

                Saint Helena, in the 5.10 race at Leicester (UK), on Saturday 16th April. If this one doesn't win the race (assuming it actually runs), I'll be extremely surprised. The most confident (if not the only) tip I've ever offered.

                (Edited to add: this one won effortlessly ).
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                • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
                  Banned
                  There's another relevant selection for this Warrior system tomorrow (Sunday 24th July) ...

                  Green Warrior runs in the 2.25 race at Carlisle. (Won a race at Musselburgh on Tuesday, and might be able to follow that up, though not a certainty like the previous selection: forecast price about 4/1).

                  Edited to add: this one was a non-runner, so no bet there, after all.
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            • Profile picture of the author hardraysnight
              Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

              I can read a racing form better then a newspaper
              But for some reason when you're at the track at Saratoga the stats don't always hold up. That's why it's called the graveyard of favorites
              I'm also good friends with a trainer who has taught me a lot about 'reading' horses. Still I have a coupe of rules I follow when playing the horses.
              First I only go to the Saratoga track where you can get up close to the horses. Second I only bring the amount of money that I can afford to loose.
              Anybody into horse racing really needs to go to Saratoga at least once.
              Everybody I've talked to from owners to trainers and jockey's say there isn't another track like it.
              obviously you have never been to Tauherenikau breacecourse
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  • Profile picture of the author hardraysnight
    I will have a look at Australia and New Zealand next weekend, if I remember
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    • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
      Banned
      Looks like this fine "system" has another selection running tomorrow (Monday), in the 5.35 race at Ballinrobe: Traffic Article. Ridden by that nice Peter Carberry - must have chances.

      Sporting Life - Racing | Racecard, Ballinrobe 19-09-2011 P. Flannery Plant Hire Group London Steeplechase
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      • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
        Banned
        If anyone's interested, Waking Warrior runs tomorrow, in the 3.20 race at Southwell.

        He's won two of his last three on this fibresand surface, most recently when winning comfortably over this same course and distance last time (and the horses which came 2nd and 3rd in that race have both won since, which is nice collateral form). Ridden tomorrow by a decent jockey with a weight-claim, he's effectively only one pound higher than he was on his last win here. (Don't expect a big price, though, because the form's obvious for everyone else to see, too.)
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        • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
          Banned
          These selections are on a roll (with apricot marmalade and some lightly salted Jersey butter).

          Today Waking Warrior runs again in the 5.00 race at Wolverhampton, on the "all-weather surface".

          The odds look like being around 6/1, and he clearly has a respectable chance. The "Oddschecker" website describes him as "one to consider". The Racing Post says "Running well, latest over C&D; e/w shout again" (translation: he's improving, his last run was over this same course and distance, and they think he should at least be placed in the race).
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          • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
            Banned
            The last one won effortlessly, last time out.

            Tomorrow (Thursday 28th Feb) Elusive Warrior runs in the 4.50 race at Southwell (6 furlong handicap on the all-weather surface), if anyone's interested. Has no apparent chance at all, and could easily go off at about 25/1. Not a horse for backing, this time, but clearly worth a mention here, given his name. :p

            Edited to add: this old dodgepot actually came in 5th out of 13 runners, at 33/1 (slightly better performance than I expected).
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            • Profile picture of the author jimbo13
              Keep Up the good work.

              Dan
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              • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
                Banned
                Scotch Warrior runs tomorrow, in the 5.10 race at Perth (the one in Scotland, not the one in Australia), and has won there 6 times in the past. Currently 7/1 available.

                However, the race is a 3-mile handicap chase, and he's never won over this distance before (his last win was at 2 miles 5 furlongs). But that's doubtless why he's 7/1 rather than about 3/1 as you might expect for a Perth race with so many previous wins there. :confused:
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                • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
                  Banned
                  Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

                  Scotch Warrior runs tomorrow, in the 5.10 race at Perth (the one in Scotland, not the one in Australia), and has won there 6 times in the past. Currently 7/1 available. However, the race is a 3-mile handicap chase, and he's never won over this distance before (his last win was at 2 miles 5 furlongs). But that's doubtless why he's 7/1 rather than about 3/1 as you might expect for a Perth race with so many previous wins there.
                  You can't win them all: this old stinker came in only 6th of 10 runners at 13/2: "mid-division, not fluent 6th or 10th, mistake 13th, soon outpaced, hampered 3 out, never on terms opened 7/1". (Loosely translated, that means he was very unlucky in running but also jumped badly and never had any real chance of winning it anyway, even without the bad luck ).
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