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Will the PIIGS get slaughtered and the Euro fail?

by Joe Mobley
12 replies
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Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the PIIGS) continue to hemorrhage financially. Germany is playing banker to the Euro and I do not think will be able to sustain that effort.

Should Germany need help who will they turn to? The International Monetary Fund? The US? If you think Americans are angry now, they will be screaming for blood if they think one US dollar is going to another banker bailout.

I think the appetite for big business, banker, and failing country bailouts is about done.

Another thought is that China might be suckered... ahh enticed into lending to Germany and other EU countries. The logic being that if the European Union fails the United States would be next.

I think the probability is very high that the economies of the European Union will fail before the end of this year.


Joe Mobley
  • Profile picture of the author mrmarketer1
    Any response to the US debt downgrade and crisis along with the potential for a double bump US recession? This is far from being a Euro specific challenge. Its global...
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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
      First of all, welcome to the Warrior Forum.

      I can see the debt downgrade going one of two ways.

      One is that there is a big ruckus for a week or two but things settle down and the world pretty much carries on.

      Or the downgrade accelerates the global financial mess and there is a collapse of economic markets worldwide by Christmas.

      I believe that the double-dip is already underway. For example, I expect gas to be over $4.00 by first quarter of 2012.

      But hey, what do I know?

      Joe Mobley



      Originally Posted by mrmarketer1 View Post

      Any response to the US debt downgrade and crisis along with the potential for a double bump US recession? This is far from being a Euro specific challenge. Its global...
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      • Profile picture of the author Kay King
        Why are you posting in blue?

        I think the crisis will be dragged into next year. Don't know what will happen but don't think it will be pretty.

        The "double dip" talk is never ending. How do you "double dip" into something when you are still in the first dip? I'd think "deeper dip" might be a better term.
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        • Profile picture of the author HeySal
          Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

          Why are you posting in blue?

          I think the crisis will be dragged into next year. Don't know what will happen but don't think it will be pretty.

          The "double dip" talk is never ending. How do you "double dip" into something when you are still in the first dip? I'd think "deeper dip" might be a better term.
          They're also talking about a major recession coming up - and I missed the fact that the last one ever went away.

          I guess what they are trying to say is that they can't rig unemployment figures to make it seem like we only have single digit percents of people not working anymore.
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        • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
          Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

          Why are you posting in blue?
          Hey, I like blue. Or, my girlfriend left me for a Smurf now I'm the one that's blue. :rolleyes:

          Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

          I think the crisis will be dragged into next year. Don't know what will happen but don't think it will be pretty.

          I see you have mastered the power of the understatement.
          Originally Posted by Kay King View Post


          The "double dip" talk is never ending. How do you "double dip" into something when you are still in the first dip? I'd think "deeper dip" might be a better term.
          I think you are right.

          Joe Mobley
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  • Profile picture of the author GuideKaunas
    It might be a little of topic but i think that EU is a mistake in general. :/
    Why? Well i just put it like this.
    During cold war USA was an opposition to CCCP right?
    EU was made to be an opposition to Warsaw pact. Warsaw pact is gone, EU should be gone too. You might say I am wrong but if you look at it this way...
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    • Profile picture of the author myob
      An excellent and balanced, objective view of this can be perhaps be obtained by reading this newly published book "An Assessment of the Global Impact of the Financial Crisis" by Philip Arestis, Rogrio Sobreira, and Jos Luis Oreiro (Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan, January 2011). It provides the origins and explanations of how we got here, and examines the regulatory implications and how to take the most advantage of the situation as well as how to prosper in this environment.
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    • Profile picture of the author Thomas
      Originally Posted by GuideKaunas View Post

      It might be a little of topic but i think that EU is a mistake in general. :/
      Why? Well i just put it like this.
      During cold war USA was an opposition to CCCP right?
      EU was made to be an opposition to Warsaw pact. Warsaw pact is gone, EU should be gone too. You might say I am wrong but if you look at it this way...
      You are wrong: The Warsaw Pact was created to counter NATO, and it was dissolved in 1991, two years before the European Union actually became known as the European Union. Also, the original predecessor of the European Union was devised many years before the Warsaw Pact was even thought of (and it had no military function in opposition to the Warsaw Pact (after it was created), since that was a role carried out by NATO).
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  • Profile picture of the author David Maschke
    The writing has been on the wall for years for the downgrade of U.S. bonds.

    I'm not an economics expert, but didn't china and russia say they were going to move away from u.s. bonds over a year ago?

    Then a few large investment firms said they were going to stop buying them, then investors like Warren Buffet said they were no longer a good investment.

    How can rating companies say U.S. bonds are a good investment, when so many market movers didn't want them anymore? Their reputation is a stake.

    I believe there are two other credit rating companies, and it's only a matter of time before they downgrade their opinion of U.S. bonds too.

    The question on everyone's mind is, how can countries and large investors get the little guy to buy up these bonds, without the little guy trying to unload their own bonds too.

    No one will want them if the U.S. can't pay back the money borrowed.

    There will probably be a lot of back room deals, somebody will find a few shmuck investment companies to buy up the bonds with 401k money for as long as possible, and countries will be able to dump their bonds on them.

    I know seasoned, heysal, myob and a few other REALLY SMART people will have a more educated view of this topic, and I'd like to hear it
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  • Profile picture of the author Thomas
    Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

    Germany is playing banker to the Euro and I do not think will be able to sustain that effort.
    The Euro has been very good for Germany; they're not about to give it up any time soon and, economically, they can support it, ironically (?) because of the very economic boost Germany has enjoyed because of it.

    Internal German politics are another matter entirely though.
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  • Profile picture of the author Thomas
    Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

    Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the PIIGS) continue to hemorrhage financially.
    Incidentally, usage of the term PIIGS has now been ended by a very large number of media outlets because of it's (obvious, IMO) derogatory connotations.
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    • Profile picture of the author HeySal
      Originally Posted by Thomas View Post

      Incidentally, usage of the term PIIGS has now been ended by a very large number of media outlets because of it's (obvious, IMO) derogatory connotations.

      Um...so does SPIIG mean anything in anyone's language? How 'bout GIIPS? That one should be kewl - like "win one for the gipper".

      So it's been awhile since I looked out my window here, Tommy. Did Ireland finally get sucked into the EU or are you being tanked independently?
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