Solar Storm-Another catastrophy to hit in 2012

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A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

The prediction is based in part on major solar storm in 1859 caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.

It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.

"A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude.

• Click here to visit FOXNews.com's Space Center.

'Command and control might be lost'

When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm -- the type expected to occur about once a century -- could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.

Stormy past

Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:

-- In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.

-- A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

"Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting."

Rush to prepare

The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.

While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather -- how severe, nobody knows -- will ramp up a year or two before the peak.

Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."

The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.
  • Profile picture of the author Ken Strong
    Originally Posted by valerieSONORA View Post

    ... with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.
    Oh good god, no! Anything but that! :rolleyes: How will we EVER survive?
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    • Profile picture of the author James Liberty
      Originally Posted by KenStrong View Post

      Oh good god, no! Anything but that! :rolleyes: How will we EVER survive?
      This made me laugh. I'm with ya, Ken.

      Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

      WTF are you listening to Fox News for Val? Your brain cells are going to atrophy.
      As opposed to the other outstanding and upright media outlets within our nation? :rolleyes:
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    WTF are you listening to Fox News for Val? Your brain cells are going to atrophy.

    This sun cycle (24) was predicted to be the strongest on record. Um...so far it's a complete dud. It has to really get kicking fast if it's going to become the torrential problem it's supposed to be by then. I would be more worried about the alignment with the center of the galaxy -- and the government. If we don't get them in "alignment" pretty soon it won't matter what the cosmos is doing.
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    Sal
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  • Profile picture of the author Mark Brian
    Reminds me of an upcoming movie which has a totally awesome trailer: 2012 - Official Movie Site
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  • Profile picture of the author gareth
    Duuuuuuh but at present there are not enough such storms and that meand the heliosphere is weakened and if there is no heliosphrere the whole earth will be fried and everything dead and nothing anybody can do about it.
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  • Profile picture of the author Jim Stewart
    That's why I never take off my Tin foil hat.

    Yes, I know it can be a pain to wear in bed and in the shower, but you can never be too safe!
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    • Profile picture of the author HeySal
      Originally Posted by Jim Stewart View Post

      That's why I never take off my Tin foil hat.

      Yes, I know it can be a pain to wear in bed and in the shower, but you can never be too safe!
      Oh Paleazzzze. Tinfoil is soooo yesterday. The new thing is electrostatic bag fashions - much more comfy and just as reliable if not so. Tinfoil is for wallpaper. Tsk.
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      Sal
      When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
      Beyond the Path

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  • Profile picture of the author Patrician
    LOL.

    I know otherwise intelligent and savvy beings that still have cases of Top Ramen from the "Y2K' scare. I hope they will keep for 2012, which I hope is another resounding non-event.

    Yeh. In case any of you are worried about what to do in case of a catastrophy in 2012. Stock up on Top Ramen. You will be fine.
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    • Profile picture of the author Mark Brock
      Didn't the Mayans predict that the world would end in 2012?

      Pretty sure it ended for ALL of them long ago so how much attention should be paid to their predictions?

      If it happens, then it happens! No point worrying about it. Just live your lives to the fullest!
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      AWOL

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    • Profile picture of the author ShayB
      Originally Posted by Patrician View Post

      LOL.

      I know otherwise intelligent and savvy beings that still have cases of Top Ramen from the "Y2K' scare.
      Have you been looking in my pantry again? :rolleyes:
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      "Fate protects fools, little children, and ships called Enterprise." ~Commander Riker
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      • Profile picture of the author HeySal
        Originally Posted by ShayRockhold View Post

        Have you been looking in my pantry again? :rolleyes:
        Oh yeah, Shay -- easy for you to laugh. You've got the US Marines protecting your wild little act.
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        Sal
        When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
        Beyond the Path

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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    Pat - you are a christian so I am surprised you would even have to think twice about 2012. Revelations has the tribulation length as 7 years (although there is discrepancy in thought as to whether Rapture comes before or after tribulation) then Christ is supposed to be here keeping peace for 1000 years. Now seeings that we've only got three years till 2012 - okay, we've been through one major amount of crap in 3 years so we can argue about being in the middle of the tribulation - but um....1000 years of peace? We know we haven't seen that yet. LOL. So If you are right in your religious faith, we've got some time til the end, er.....at least most of us will.

    MARK - yeah - they disappeared all right - indications are that it happened suddenly, as in many ruins were found with dinners still on tables, etc. Soooo - maybe they know more about ascension than modern society is willing to admit? Their philosophies and even daily schedules were based on what the energy flows for each day were - longer cycles were 56 years, but that wasn't long enough for some things they were giggin' on so they had to build a mathematically co-adherent longer calendar, and that mathematical breakdown is what the thousand some odd year calendar we have from them is all about. Were they here, they'd put out another - so the questions seem to come down to "Why aren't they here?" and is the end of the calendar in 2012 a prediction of some cyclical energy event such as the one that "disappeared" them?

    As far as sun cycles - this was predicted to be the strongest ever, and so far it's a complete wash out. It can rev up at any time but the fact that it wasn't already into cycle by May says it might not ever gain great proportions. Maybe the galactic alignment will blow a nice dust cloud around it in 2012 and what will happen is an explosion. Being instantly vaporized might be the same as ascension, ya think? LOL.
    Then again both Christains and Mayans predict an ascension like event - and as far as I have read I can't find the idea that the Mayans thought they were predicting the end of the world rather than an ascension.

    Electrostatic ski suits should be selling pretty well right now.
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    Sal
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    • Profile picture of the author Patrician
      Well Sal - since you are talking dirty - (religion is a banned subject) a "year" to us is a minute to the G-word - or some equation like that. So I don't see any relationship to anything at all. 7 'years' is 70000000 'years' - WTF ever.

      Live until you die or fly off.

      Simple. Nothing we can do either way so why even worry about it.

      As it also says NO ONE can know the day or the hour, and since 'wars and rumors of wars', earthquakes, Y2K and all have been going on for hundreds and thousands of our years, SO FAR, again, the only thing to worry is if you have enough Top Ramen in the event of a disaster worse then everyday life.

      LOL - die a quick death with sodium and msg and don't worry about solar junk.

      Don't worry be happy.

      Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

      Pat - you are a christian so I am surprised you would even have to think twice about 2012. Revelations has the tribulation length as 7 years (although there is discrepancy in thought as to whether Rapture comes before or after tribulation) then Christ is supposed to be here keeping peace for 1000 years. Now seeings that we've only got three years till 2012 - okay, we've been through one major amount of crap in 3 years so we can argue about being in the middle of the tribulation - but um....1000 years of peace? We know we haven't seen that yet. LOL. So If you are right in your religious faith, we've got some time til the end, er.....at least most of us will.
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      • Profile picture of the author myob
        The world really is going to end. It has been prophecied and predicted for every century since at least as early as 5,000BC. Sometimes there were two or three end times in one century, so be very afraid if nothing happens at all in 2012. There's 2036, 2099, and many more centuries coming up that we need to watch out for. Doomsayers will be right someday, and vigilence must remain eternal.
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  • Profile picture of the author valerieSONORA
    I had never even heard of a solar storm before. And now it's supposed to happen in 2012 when all this other bad stuff is predicted to happen.

    I hope that doesn't happen. No phone, internet , no government :p, no trade, no heating/air, everything modern is broken

    Let's see, the world could end and the world could blow up and everyone dies, alaska can shift to be on top of the equator, or there could be a disruptive solar storm or what else? I hope nothing happens and ppl were worrying for nothing. I wasn't the least bit scared over "Y2k". :p

    And the tin foil hats are to prevent aliens from reading your mind If you wanna look fashionable, just paint the tin foil pink.
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