WHO declares global swine flu pandemic

Here's me thinking Roger Daltry & Co had all gone down with it

Kay, we are talking about the absolute number of deaths, not the percentages. The germ for the black death is still around but we can very competently deal with it now so there is no chance it may recur. This is not the case with influenza yet. In fact, nobody is sure that a pandemic as or more severe than than the one in 1918 will not occur again.

It is a similar situation comparing the worse tyrants in history. You cannot really compare someone like Hitler and Stalin against Genghis Khan and the first emperor of China because Hitler and Stalin had more population to work on.

Also note that the WHO has declared this pandemic to be of "moderate" rather than "mild" severity. Therefore it is expected to cause more problems than the current H3N2 common flu and is expected to become the common flu in due course.

In the past, pandemics lasted 1-2 years but because of the control measures we have now, it is possible that it may be drawn out over a much longer period this time. If you are in a risk group, it would be good idea to get vaccinated when it become available.

Derek

how about the SARS? Its kill also a lot of people. Its also spread in the world.

I would say with the population as large as it is and as tight as people are packed in, if that thing went 1918 strength, we'd have a major problem with cadaver disposal. We have triple the population than they did back then, and millions are living right on top of each other. Good time to read The Stand again for a real chill I guess.

The definition of a pandemic is based mainly on geographic spread rather than the deadliness of the diseases. SARS would probably quality as a "micro-pandemic" However it only caused 8096 known infections and 774 deaths. These numbers are nothing in comparison to what this HN1N pandemic will end up causing.

Having worked with SARS, I can say withiout resercation that the atmosphere was definitely much more scarry then the present swine flu outbreak. For a start, we were dealing with something that was completely new and had a 15% mortality rate in Hong Kong. It also killed healthy individuals indiscriminately. Many of my medical colleagues who worked in hospitals preferred to stay in a hotel rather than to go home because they were scared that they may infect their families. It was like as if a cloud of death had descended upon our city. Ultimately it was controlled because for one, people were so scared of it that they were determined to take all necessary measures. Also, going into the summer months did help a lot. The really odd thing is that the virus is still there among animals in nature but we have not had any problems since then.

In modern times, the only other pandemic that can compare to the 1918 in terms of mortality and size would be the HIV pandemic that had killed at least 20 million persons to date.

Derek

They reckon 1/3 of the new zealand population could catch the disease.

Its meant to be around for 20 months.

Derek,

You seem to be having a fun time with this! Did you notice that the numbers you gave were DECREASING!?!? YEP, I know that technically they are different viruses, but that is still interesting.

Seasoned, virology was my old profession and it was my job to know these viruses. In fact if things gets worse, I might well be recalled to help out.

It is true that the mortality of the influenza pandemics decreased during the last century. But the mortality of the current swine flu virus is thought to similar to the H2N2 virus in 1957 which is more severe than the current H3N2 virus. Therefore based on current projections, we should expect more deaths to occur.

One big problem at the moment is that many countries planned for a pandemic caused by H5N1 virus which they throught would be as bad or worse than the 1918 pandemic. But when a much milder virus appeared, they did not adjust accordingly and imposed some very tough and possibly over the top measures.

Derek