Playing For Profit On Slot Machines, Is It Possible, YES!

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Now, a risky thread.

Is it possible to make a living playing very carefully and with great restraint and discipline on the slots.

Most people say the slots are the worst thing to play in the casino. I beg to differ.

The first thing I would say is to treat it like a business, your lively-hood. If you want to make say $100.00 tax free a day and you live near a casino or in a casino state you have all you need. The 100 bucks a day I have picked because its a sort of figure to be able to eek out a living on without the need to work. A lot of people earn about a hundred a day in their work.

Most people go to a casino to have fun. Sensible people visit now and again with bankroll they can afford to lose and play for fun. If they come out with more then they are happy, they may have a big win or lose some of it or all of it. Any outcome cannot be devastating to them because they were prepared for it to go either way. but these people play for the fun and the thrill, not to make a profit. it is not their prime directive for entering one.

Machines have a percentage payout over time which is consistent with whatever laws the state says is the percentage payback rate. This can be perhaps 86 percent to 93 percent. (or perhaps a bit more.) This means that over time they will pay back up to 93 percent of what you put in. So, of course the casino makes a profit.

A figure quoted to me a few years back said each machine in a casino generally makes $120.00 a day profit. So, if you have say 2.5 thousand slots that's and nice earner and of course you can add in the table and keno games etc.

Machines do vary in their play behavior though. Some machines like the traditional 3 lines ones don't pay out that often but when they do its usually a larger chunk of change.

A lot of the newer penny machines (video or otherwise) where you can have multiple denomination bets on the fly have more regular wins but but not high ones, often a little over your bet, or even less than your bet. They also, every so often have bonus rounds, free spins and usually they at that point engineered to at least give you a few wins during the spins. It is these we will be looking at

Now I have looked at mine and others playing behavior. If I put a 20 dollar bill into a machine and start playing, say minimum bet of 30-40 cents covering all lines allways, without fail, you initially go over the 20 bucks, to say 21-22-23. That is, if you look at the readout of money you have to take out you may say to yourself, ohh, I had 20, now I have 23, lets see if we can get this higher. So, you go up and down, up and down. Eventually losing it all.

So like most people, I tended to do the same. On my last visit I just mainly played the fun machines with lots of flashing lights and video clips and gimmicks and enjoyed myself. Losing over time.

On the last morning I thought of something to try out (by the way, have trawled the net for this idea and never found it exactly)

So here it is: I had a hundred left in my pocket in 20 dollar bills. I set a rule, first I chose the simpler Quick-hits type machines with the mechanical six segments. No real distractions except they have a bonus round now and again. Up to 20 free spins with a multiplier.

I put in a 20 and did minimum bet, 30 cents. The other part of the rule was that If I went over the 20 at any time I would CASH OUT! Even if it was just one dollar, CASH OUT.

Then I would start again with a fresh 20 dollar bill, ticket in left pocket, fresh 20 into the machine. Same rule. I had the idea that starting afresh gave you a slight edge of opportunity. a slight position of strength at the beginning. There was a small window of goes you could have to achieve the slight profit amount. Go too low and you would never easily claw your way back but not impossible.

Here's what happened, after half an hour I had eight cash-out tickets in my left pocket, all varying amounts over the 20 bucks investment each time. I never lost a 20. I had from one dollar profit to 3 , up to ten on a few. This takes quite a bit of discipline to do and keeping careful tabs on what you have in the machine. It also takes patience.

So, after 8 20's had gone in and 8 tickets had come out over the 20 I showed them to the wife and cashed them in. I had earned 60 bucks profit. This high amount was possible because once or twice during the session it got a bonus round which paid a little more, plus a few quick-hits. With the amount of goes I was having you would get this periodically.

It must be a fluke I thought, going to try and replicate it. 8 tickets later I cashed out again to the tone of 57 bucks profit. Not bad for an hours work.

I don't live in a casino state so don't get to go that often. For those that do, next time you go, give it a try. There are now video versions of the quick-hits so don't know if they would perform the same.

It would not be called cheating, was just playing the things but with a twist. And like people who buy WSO's, scant people implement them. So, the casinos will continue to make handsome profits.

I would like some feedback of course. I did this twice in a row but really need to do it many times before I can be truly confident about it. Just reporting that a change in my playing methodology seemed to get a result.

Always gamble responsibly.
  • Profile picture of the author yukon
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  • Profile picture of the author Kurt
    No betting method or system can overcome, or even change, the expectation. Every bet made is still made at a 7-15% (on average) disadvantage, depending on the machine played.

    When gambling at a disadvantage, the less you play the more likely you are to win. I don't recommend playing this system for very long.

    For those that go to Las Vegas, I suggest learning video poker instead. Learn basic strategies for the video poker games with the best payouts. You can easily find this info online. This will get you to just about a break even game, maybe even slightly ahead.

    Then sign up for slot clubs at the casinos with the best comps, where you get free and discounted meals and rooms for your play.

    There's risk to this, but the odds are even and you can get some great comps and have very inexpensive Las Vegas vacations. My brother took my advice, learned basic strategy for two different video poker games, and now goes to Las Vegas 4-5 times a year and has a great time while saving tons of money.
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  • Profile picture of the author Statcode
    You can make profits on slot machines in the short-term, but not in the long run.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kay King
      There are two tricks to winning in a casino:

      1. Have enough money to play until you are ahead

      2. Have enough sense to leave while you are ahead


      I was dealing on a high limit table several years ago. A player was talking to me - going on and on (and on) about how much he loved the $100 slot machines in the high stakes area. He had been told the high dollar slots paid 96% return and he thought that was great. I told him if that made him happy I'd give him $96 for every $100 he gave me all day every day.

      Not sure he got the humor - but it shut him up.
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      • Profile picture of the author Kurt
        Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

        There are two tricks to winning in a casino:

        1. Have enough money to play until you are ahead

        2. Have enough sense to leave while you are ahead
        Bad advice and could be downright dangerous. The "trick" to winning in a casino is to have a statistical advantage and only play games where one has an advantage.

        It's getting harder and harder to do, as the casinos have become even more paranoid over card counters. Some progressive video poker games will give a positive expectation, however there are professional "gangs" that will descend on a bank of machines if there's a positive expectation detected due to a progressive jackpot reaching a certain point.

        Poker is a possibility, since you play against other players rather than the casino. However, table rake, dealer tips and cocktail waitress tips can really eat into any profits. IMO, the table rake in the Colorado poker rooms is so high, it's virtually an unbeatable game.

        The best method is the video poker/com strategy one I posted above. However, it's probably best for Las Vegas only, as many of the casinos in other cities aren't as liberal with their comps. Even Las Vegas is getting much tighter with their comps.
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        • Profile picture of the author Kay King
          That advice came from a an old guy who was a manager for many years in Reno....and it's spot on in my experience. Many people who play table games are up at some point - or get 'back to even'. They don't leave because winning seems easy and they think it will continue - it doesn't.

          The other advice from the same old guy was "never split anything that begins with 'f'".:rolleyes:
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          • Profile picture of the author Kurt
            Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

            That advice came from a an old guy who was a manager for many years in Reno....and it's spot on in my experience. Many people who play table games are up at some point - or get 'back to even'. They don't leave because winning seems easy and they think it will continue - it doesn't.
            No betting system can over-come a disadvantage. If your Reno manager wants to rewrite mathematical fact, he'll need more than just observation.

            But telling someone that's losing to just have more money for gambling is dangerous advice. The gambler is still at the same disadvantage regardless of being up or down. Money management doesn't change this. The fact is, it doesn't matter if a player is up or down or what their bankroll is, in most casino situations they are still at a disadvantage, and this is what matters.




            The other advice from the same old guy was "never split anything that begins with 'f'".:rolleyes:
            This would be correct for a blackjack basic strategy player. However, this would depend on the "count" for a card counter. If the count was very high, meaning a lot of 10s in the deck, and the dealer has a 5 or 6 up, and I have a pair of 4s or 5s, the proper play is to split, especially if double after split was allowed. But this would require a true count (not running count) of +5 or higher in most systems.

            Same for face cards. While basic strategy says to never split 10s, there are times when for card counters it is the correct play mathemtatically.

            However, splitting 10s is a sign the player is either very bad or a card counter, which could result in table heat, so many counters won't split 10s and give up this small advantage to kept their counting more covert.

            On the other hand, I've split 10s at a high count just to piss off other players at the table to try to get them to leave the table, either because they were annoying or I wanted to play with fewer players at the table, which results in a faster game and more accurate counts and strategies for a card counter.
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            • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
              Odd's on there are no mathematical systems for the pokies!

              Using intuition, probably! :rolleyes:

              But l wouldn't bet on it!


              Shane
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              • Profile picture of the author Daniel Evans
                During my college days I played a fruit machine every morning.

                It repeated the same reels each and day without fail for about 15 mins from being switched on

                I'd play it with a friend who discovered it. We'd make £17 between us Mon-Fri.

                The management noticed our pattern and she doubled the price of a credit though it didn't cause too much of a knock to our profits.

                On another note, someone in my family bagged just over £1.4k from a known method which takes advantage of a loophole in the game of 3 Card Bag. The online casino ridded of it a few months later.

                The winning is in loopholes and malfunctions. It's just a case of finding them.
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              • Profile picture of the author whateverpedia
                Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

                Odd's on there are no mathematical systems for the pokies!
                Correct.

                Using intuition, probably! :rolleyes:
                Highly unlikely.

                But l wouldn't bet on it!
                Very sensible.

                I can only speak about pokies (as they are known Down Under) in New South Wales as that is the only experience I have with them (they are banned everywhere except the casino in WA).

                The machines there are programmed to pay out 85 cents in every dollar they have put into them. In other words, they're programmed to KEEP 15 cents in every dollar.

                Wins are possible if you play once in a blue moon, however if you play them regularly, you will be donating a minimum of 15 cents of every dollar you put in to the owner of the premises.

                Anyway, in my 20 odd years living in Sydney, I only played on pokies once. That was after I'd been there about 3 months. I found a dollar coin on the floor of the pub I was in, and thought what the hell, put it in one of the pokies.

                After one spin I clocked up $10. I cashed that in immediately. That's the first, last and only time I've ever played them. So yeah, I'm a winner.

                If I'd put a dollar into them every day after that, I'd be 15% (at least) poorer though. Guaranteed.
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      • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
        Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

        There are two tricks to winning in a casino:

        1. Have enough money to play until you are ahead

        2. Have enough sense to leave while you are ahead
        Kay; That makes perfect sense. The problem is, the math is never wrong. And it doesn't matter if you are ahead. Your advice is something I thought about myself. My logic was "even though you eventually must lose money,there will always be times when you are ahead...so if I just quit when I'm ahead, I won't lose." Doesn't that sound reasonable? It did to me. The flaw in my logic was including the word "always". The problem is, sometimes you don't win. I mean in some sessions, you are never ahead. These sessions may not be frequent, but they are frequent enough to ruin any system you can think of.

        A hard thing for me to accept (after losing money I couldn't afford to lose, over several years), was that the math stays the same, no matter what system you use.

        And there is no advantage to stopping and starting a session. It's counter-intuitive, but it's true.

        Casinos are built out of the money from systems players.
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  • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
    Originally Posted by lanfear63 View Post

    So here it is: I had a hundred left in my pocket in 20 dollar bills. I set a rule, first I chose the simpler Quick-hits type machines with the mechanical six segments. No real distractions except they have a bonus round now and again. Up to 20 free spins with a multiplier.

    I put in a 20 and did minimum bet, 30 cents. The other part of the rule was that If I went over the 20 at any time I would CASH OUT! Even if it was just one dollar, CASH OUT.

    Then I would start again with a fresh 20 dollar bill, ticket in left pocket, fresh 20 into the machine. Same rule. I had the idea that starting afresh gave you a slight edge of opportunity. a slight position of strength at the beginning. There was a small window of goes you could have to achieve the slight profit amount. Go too low and you would never easily claw your way back but not impossible.

    Here's what happened, after half an hour I had eight cash-out tickets in my left pocket, all varying amounts over the 20 bucks investment each time. I never lost a 20. I had from one dollar profit to 3 , up to ten on a few. This takes quite a bit of discipline to do and keeping careful tabs on what you have in the machine. It also takes patience.
    My friend; Casinos sell gambling books. They love system players.

    Use your system ten times, and then report your results.

    You are not the first one to try your system, I promise. Your impression is intuitive, but math isn't intuitive. If the slots pay out 98%, that means you average a 2% loss at every spin, no matter your system, timing, or starting fresh.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kurt
      Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre View Post

      My friend; Casinos sell gambling books. They love system players.

      Use your system ten times, and then report your results.

      You are not the first one to try your system, I promise. Your impression is intuitive, but math isn't intuitive. If the slots pay out 98%, that means you average a 2% loss at every spin, no matter your system, timing, or starting fresh.
      Correct. The 2% is of the total ACTION, not the bankroll. Action is calculated by multiplying the (amount bet) x (play rate).

      Because of this, a $50 "bankroll" can result in $1000s in action.

      A slot machine can be pulled over 1000 times an hour. Using round numbers, a 25 cent slot played 1000 times an hour is $250 in action. At 2%, this is an expected loss of $5 per hour.

      However, most slots are probably closer to 6-10%. So the $5 per hour is more likely $15-25 per hour. And the rate of play is more than 1000 spins per hour.

      The result is the expected loss for an "average" slot machine is closer to $30 an hour. And for a dollar slot machine, the expectation is about $120 an hour.

      And for the guy playing the $100 slot machines at 96%, the expected loss is well over $4000 an hour.

      It always amazed me how people that are smart enough to be able to afford to play $100 slots are too stupid to know not to play $100 slots. I can think of a lot more fun ways to spend $4000 an hour other than pushing a button and listening to bells and whistles.

      The reality is, most people gamble based on the possibility of winning, not the probability of winning. And the major problem with slots isn't really the payback, but how fast the game is played, resulting in very high action.
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  • Profile picture of the author garyv
    My system is - bring an amount you're willing to lose, and leave your debt and credit cards at home.

    But I'm with Kurt, I like playing the games with a higher statistical advantage. I don't go much at all any more, but I once loved playing black-jack and Texas Holdem. I was never a card counter, but I did have a great memory for the cards that were already played. And I did become pretty good at being able to stop while I was ahead. There were a few times that I popped into the casino for a few hours on a Friday night just to make enough for a weekend getaway.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kurt
      Originally Posted by garyv View Post

      My system is - bring an amount you're willing to lose, and leave your debt and credit cards at home.

      But I'm with Kurt, I like playing the games with a higher statistical advantage. I don't go much at all any more, but I once loved playing black-jack and Texas Holdem. I was never a card counter, but I did have a great memory for the cards that were already played. And I did become pretty good at being able to stop while I was ahead. There were a few times that I popped into the casino for a few hours on a Friday night just to make enough for a weekend getaway.
      When people first move to Las Vegas, they play the slots. However, over time those that still gamble gravitate to video poker, because they learn the hard way it pays better.

      And those that are willing to memorize a few basic strategies can get the payback expectation to over 99%. Why play a game that has a 94% payback when you can play a game with a 99.5% payback? Some games can ever reach a positive expectation of 100.7 payback. Pure laziness is the only reason.

      Like I said above, the best gambling strategy for the vast majority of players it to learn a video poker strategy, then play at casinos with good slot clubs. With the free comps you'll get for your play, plus your breakeven odds at video poker, the game has a pretty good positive expectation and has a much smaller learning curve than poker or card counting.

      Video Poker - Wizard of Odds
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  • Profile picture of the author Chris Worner
    Is card counting even possible anymore?

    I used to work at Crown Casino here in Melbourne as a blackjack dealer and not long before I quit, they were training everybody to get used to using 6 deck continuous shuffling and dealing machines. I would assume that most if not all Casinos these days use such technology?

    -Chris
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    • Profile picture of the author Kurt
      Originally Posted by Chris Worner View Post

      Is card counting even possible anymore?

      I used to work at Crown Casino here in Melbourne as a blackjack dealer and not long before I quit, they were training everybody to get used to using 6 deck continuous shuffling and dealing machines. I would assume that most if not all Casinos these days use such technology?

      -Chris
      It was possible to count at a few places last time I was in Las Vegas, but that was a few years ago and the trend is definately in that direction. The 6 decks won't stop a counter, only slow them down a bit. However, the continuous shuffling will foil a counter.

      It's ironic, because it wasn't until Thorpe wrote "Beat the Dealer" (the first card counting book) that blackjack became popular. It wasn't that everyone became a card counter, just that it was proven that blackjack was beatable.

      Before Thorpe, in Las Vegas craps tables out numbered blackjack tables something like 6:1. After Thorpe, the numbers became totally reversed with blackjack tables out numbering craps tables 6:1.

      It's just a bunch of paranoia from the casinos IMO. In all the years I counted cards, I only saw a couple of other counters. And even as a card counter at the table, if there's one other "average" player at the same table, the table is still at a positive expectation for the casino because the average player will lose at more than twice the rate a counter will win at.

      I quit playing blackjack and poker years ago, when I figured out the Internet had much better odds.

      Tip to dealers: If you really want to detect a card counter, watch how they play 16 vs dealer 6. This is a borderline decision and a counter will play it differently at the slightest count differential. One time, if there's a single extra 10 out of the deck, a counter will hit it. If the deck is even or positive, a counter will stay.
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      • Profile picture of the author Chris Worner
        Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

        Tip to dealers: If you really want to detect a card counter, watch how they play 16 vs dealer 6. This is a borderline decision and a counter will play it differently at the slightest count differential. One time, if there's a single extra 10 out of the deck, a counter will hit it. If the deck is even or positive, a counter will stay.
        I only ever encountered 1 card counter in the 9 months I was dealing, and he was f*cking godlike. On the 6 or so separate occasions I encountered him at the tables, it seemed as though he couldn't loose. He had a lady with him, whether she was in on the action I don't know, but it was interesting to observe this man. He wasn't even subtle, he was very methodical, observed everything, did the calculations in his head(He didn't hide this) hit and sat tight in situations most unsophisticated players would do the opposite. And seemed to know when I as the dealer would go bust.

        It was incredible. How this guy was never detected, at least while I was working there, still boggles my mind.

        -Chris
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        • Profile picture of the author Kurt
          Originally Posted by Chris Worner View Post

          I only ever encountered 1 card counter in the 9 months I was dealing, and he was f*cking godlike. On the 6 or so separate occasions I encountered him at the tables, it seemed as though he couldn't loose. He had a lady with him, whether she was in on the action I don't know, but it was interesting to observe this man. He wasn't even subtle, he was very methodical, observed everything, did the calculations in his head(He didn't hide this) hit and sat tight in situations most unsophisticated players would do the opposite. And seemed to know when I as the dealer would go bust.

          It was incredible. How this guy was never detected, at least while I was working there, still boggles my mind.

          -Chris
          You'd be surprised what a good card counter will observe. If I sat first base, I could often see the the "burn card", when the dealer put it in the discard tray. Sitting third base, you can often see the reflection of the burn card in the tray. This gives counters one more piece of info.

          Back when dealers would check for blackjack with either a 10 or A showing, this would cause 10s and A's to bend in the opposite direction of all the other cards. Again, sitting either first base or third base (as all counters do) you could often detect if the undercard was an A or 10, because of the direction of the curve in the bend of the under card.

          The tough part was often applying this. For example, I hold a 19, the dealer had a 10 up and the under card has is "bending" up in the middle, indicating the under card is a 10. There's a good chance the dealer has a 20 and I have a 19. I wouldn't hit this, even though I knew I had a sure loser. It wasn't worth bringing additional heat to the table.

          On the other hand, when the dealer had a 5 or 6 up, and a 10 under, I'd be a more likely to double, split, etc.

          Simply, 10s and Aces would eventually bend up in the middle, while the other value cards would bend up at the edges. These were suttle indicators, but were definately there.

          For counters...

          First base = better betting correlation (big bet, small bet)

          Third base = better playing strategy correlation (hit, stay, double, etc)

          Most counters sit at third base, but I prefered first base. Counters rarely will play at any other position at the table.
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          • Profile picture of the author Chris Worner
            Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

            You'd be surprised what a good card counter will observe. If I sat first base, I could often see the the "burn card", when the dealer put it in the discard tray. Sitting third base, you can often see the reflection of the burn card in the tray. This gives counters one more piece of info.

            Back when dealers would check for blackjack with either a 10 or A showing, this would cause 10s and A's to bend in the opposite direction of all the other cards. Again, sitting either first base or third base (as all counters do) you could often detect if the undercard was an A or 10, because of the direction of the curve in the bend of the under card.

            The tough part was often applying this. For example, I hold a 19, the dealer had a 10 up and the under card has is "bending" up in the middle, indicating the under card is a 10. There's a good chance the dealer has a 20 and I have a 19. I wouldn't hit this, even though I knew I had a sure loser. It wasn't worth bringing additional heat to the table.

            On the other hand, when the dealer had a 5 or 6 up, and a 10 under, I'd be a more likely to double, split, etc.

            Simply, 10s and Aces would eventually bend up in the middle, while the other value cards would bend up at the edges. These were suttle indicators, but where definately there.

            For counters...

            First base = better betting correlation (big bet, small bet)

            Third base = better playing strategy correlation (hit, stay, double, etc)

            Most counters sit at third base, but I prefered first base. Counters rarely will play at any other position at the table.
            Interesting except in Australia, when dealing we don't deal a second card to the dealer initially, only one. We would draw the second card after the players had finished making their decisions.

            -Chris
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            • Profile picture of the author Kurt
              Originally Posted by Chris Worner View Post

              Interesting except in Australia, when dealing we don't deal a second card to the dealer initially, only one. We would draw the second card after the players had finished making their decisions.

              -Chris
              Because they don't want to give observant players any additional info.

              And...quite a few years ago, Las Vegas dealers switched to only checking their hole card if they had an Ace up. Then they came up with electronic card readers so dealers didn't have to bend any cards to check under cards.
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              • Profile picture of the author lanfear63
                First I'd like to thank you all for the science and maths, the probability factors and all the rest of your sensible contributions.

                Even though Shane and I have repeatedly debunked it all as pure hokum, time and time again you still insist on doing it. :-)

                But seriously, I feel like Jodie Foster in Contact at the moment, completely debunked for what she reported. Anyway, after the public debunk a video phone call takes place in that movie where two top aids say well there is the matter of the eight hours of recorded static. Hmm, yes says the other, interesting. Something like that.

                Perhaps our top scientists, Claude and Kurt have secretly PMed each other and said, well there is the matter of him putting 16, 20 dollar bills into a machine one after the other and making profit on each one and not losing any!.

                I will have to go back and try it 10 times over as suggested to see if it repeats itself or I'm kidding myself. Probably the latter but need to know.

                I have still not received an offer from Claude to pick me up in Houston on his private Jet and wisk me away to Louisiana so it may be a while yet. Will report back at a later date, win or lose. that's a promise.

                A few observations.

                Slot machines are just software, software and algorithms are written by humans, humans are flawed so I suspect a few bugs are still present. I have seen many a slot glitch in software terms in casinos.

                One you can possibly answer, electronic random number generators never used to be much liked as a way to generate true random numbers. Has that improved?

                Slot software has a brief to pay out a percentage back over a time period. What that time and payout distribution is no one knows, down to the programmers I suppose. it may pay back in a lump sum like a jackpot and not pay out much for a while or it may be more even in its payback. I watch some of the vids on you-tube of people who record their play. One guy won 2.5k on a 50 cent bet, the minimum on a machine where you could bet up to 5 dollars.

                When playing the slots I seem to get a couple of scenarios. You might have 10 goes and not win a thing and move on. More often than not I get my money doubled (or more) by a series of reasonable wins close together, then as you keep playing the wins drop slightly and are lesser amounts and more spaced out, then the machine drops down into a relatively cold period. Wondering if this is some sort of bait and switch programming to get you hooked, then it drops down a little and gives you some back, then goes cold, occasional wins only. Have seen and experienced this time and time again. If it only wants 120 bucks a day profit it can take its time getting their. Your hopes and expectations are first raised then dashed.

                The only other thing I can think of is that part of the programming could be in part, based on data from peoples playing habits, most people just tap blindly away at them, like robots. Hoping for a good win. They may not, at least on some of the older machines thought that people would play in such a controlled way trying to get such miniscule wins like I was. And the truth is, most people don't.

                I am probably dramatically overestimating the thought that goes into programming these things anyway. Just speculating.

                Anyway, the burden of proof on my little method is on my shoulders!
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                • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
                  Originally Posted by lanfear63 View Post

                  First I'd like to thank you all for the science and maths, the probability factors and all the rest of your sensible contributions.

                  Even though Shane and I have repeatedly debunked it all as pure hokum, time and time again you still insist on doing it. :-)

                  A few observations.

                  When playing the slots I seem to get a couple of scenarios. You might have 10 goes and not win a thing and move on. More often than not I get my money doubled (or more) by a series of reasonable wins close together, then as you keep playing the wins drop slightly and are lesser amounts and more spaced out, then the machine drops down into a relatively cold period. Wondering if this is some sort of bait and switch programming to get you hooked, then it drops down a little and gives you some back, then goes cold, occasional wins only. Have seen and experienced this time and time again. If it only wants 120 bucks a day profit it can take its time getting their. Your hopes and expectations are first raised then dashed.

                  Anyway, the burden of proof on my little method is on my shoulders!
                  Well, l did say mathematical!

                  If you combined maths and intuition then it is possible!

                  It is best to use the stop gap method, whereby you play 3 times, (whatever rows, etc) and if you get at least one win, out of those 3 plays then do it again.

                  When you don't have any wins out of those 3 plays, then it is usually a good sign, that the machine will not pay out anything worthwhile, or as you have said, go downhill.


                  Stockbrokers use this to limit speculative investments, and overall it tends to work, but occasionally l have kept going for some more decent wins!


                  Shane
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                • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
                  Originally Posted by lanfear63 View Post

                  But seriously, I feel like Jodie Foster in Contact at the moment, completely debunked for what she reported. Anyway, after the public debunk a video phone call takes place in that movie where two top aids say well there is the matter of the eight hours of recorded static. Hmm, yes says the other, interesting. Something like that.

                  Perhaps our top scientists, Claude and Kurt have secretly PMed each other and said, well there is the matter of him putting 16, 20 dollar bills into a machine one after the other and making profit on each one and not losing any!.
                  The difference between Contact and Kurt & I, is that we aren't hiding the truth. We are explaining it to you. And I must admit, Kurt sure knows more about it than I do. My only ability is finding flaws in logic. I'm not a gambler.

                  As far as winning in a streak like that? We talked about that. Your theory works, until you get a session where you don't gain at all. Laws of probability always work out, given large enough numbers. If you tried your system in 100 sessions, you would lose. Like flipping a coin...there are streaks of getting heads...but it always evens out.

                  I don't know if I will die this year. But an actuary can tell the exact percentage, of men my age, that will die this year.

                  It's one of the few facts that I understand intellectually (meaning that I know it's true), but it's very counter-intuitive to me. Flipping a coin will eventually always be 50/50? And whatever results you had before, do not influence future coin flips? But it always ends up 50/50?

                  My mind rebels at what that means. Who made up that rule?

                  It's the closest thing I have to a spiritual feeling.
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                  • Profile picture of the author lanfear63
                    Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre View Post

                    The difference between Contact and Kurt & I, is that we aren't hiding the truth. We are explaining it to you. And I must admit, Kurt sure knows more about it than I do. My only ability is finding flaws in logic. I'm not a gambler.

                    As far as winning in a streak like that? We talked about that. Your theory works, until you get a session where you don't gain at all. Laws of probability always work out, given large enough numbers. If you tried your system in 100 sessions, you would lose. Like flipping a coin...there are streaks of getting heads...but it always evens out.

                    I don't know if I will die this year. But an actuary can tell the exact percentage, of men my age, that will die this year.

                    It's one of the few facts that I understand intellectually (meaning that I know it's true), but it's very counter-intuitive to me. Flipping a coin will eventually always be 50/50? And whatever results you had before, do not influence future coin flips? But it always ends up 50/50?

                    My mind rebels at what that means. Who made up that rule?

                    It's the closest thing I have to a spiritual feeling.
                    Now there you go again, spouting your (already debunked) 50/50 probability stuff.

                    Now whats the probability of you turning up at Conroe airport in your private Jet in the next 48 hours to wisk me of to Louisiana Cochatta Casino Resort.

                    Actually a stretch Limo would be fine provided it has a bar and a Jucuzzi.
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                  • Profile picture of the author Kurt
                    Originally Posted by Claude Whitacre View Post

                    The difference between Contact and Kurt & I, is that we aren't hiding the truth. We are explaining it to you. And I must admit, Kurt sure knows more about it than I do. My only ability is finding flaws in logic. I'm not a gambler.
                    Neither am I. I only bet when the odds are in my favor.

                    It's one of the few facts that I understand intellectually (meaning that I know it's true), but it's very counter-intuitive to me. Flipping a coin will eventually always be 50/50? And whatever results you had before, do not influence future coin flips? But it always ends up 50/50?

                    My mind rebels at what that means. Who made up that rule?
                    Not exactly...

                    For example, the outcome of tossing a coin won't always be 50%. As a matter of fact, if you flip a coin an odd number of times, it's impossible to come out at exactly 50/50.

                    And according to the laws of statistics, while the percentage of flips will approach 50% heads/tails over time, the difference will increase.

                    For example, if you flip a coin 100 times and get 45 heads and 55 tails, heads came up 45% of the time, and 10 less times than tails.

                    However, over time the 45% will approach 50%, but the difference of 10 will likely increase. For example if we flip a coin a total of 1000 times, we may see that we have 485 heads and 515 tails.

                    While the percentage of heads has increased to 48.5%, the difference between heads and tails increased from 10 to 30. Again, this is just an example, but it demonstrates how this paticular statistical law works.

                    Actually, getting exactly 50% flipping a coin any number of times is a long shot, as there are many other outcomes. If we flip a coin four times, we can have:

                    0 heads 4 tails
                    1 head 3 tails
                    2 heads 2 tails
                    3 heads 1 tails
                    4 heads 0 tails

                    Only one of the possible 5 outcomes will result in 50/50.

                    What is true is that no matter what the past results were, the next flip is 50/50, assuming no bias in the coin. There are no Oddz Godz keeping track of every time a coin is tossed, influencing the outcome because of some past event.

                    If you notice, the games I posted above that are "beatable", all use a deck of cards: Video poker, poker and blackjack.

                    The difference between cards and RNGs, dice, roulette, etc, is that a deck of cards has what is known as a "mathematical memory". What this means is what has happened in the past DOES influence what will happen in the future.

                    For example, you are at a blackjack table and are the fifth player to be dealt. In a single deck game, if the four players before you are all dealt Aces, it is impossible for you to be dealt a blackjack.

                    Skilled people use the concept of a mathematical memory to their advantage.
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                    • Profile picture of the author David Beroff
                      Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

                      Actually, getting exactly 50% flipping a coin any number of times is a long shot, as there are many other outcomes. If we flip a coin four times, we can have:

                      0 heads 4 tails
                      1 head 3 tails
                      2 heads 2 tails
                      3 heads 1 tails
                      4 heads 0 tails

                      Only one of the possible 5 outcomes will result in 50/50.
                      Urm, with all due respect... if you count up the 16 different possible results from flipping four coins, you'll see that the chances of reaching those five outcomes is 1:4:6:4:1. So, six out of 16 is 37.5%, or more than a third of the time, on average.
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                      • Profile picture of the author Kurt
                        Originally Posted by David Beroff View Post

                        Urm, with all due respect... if you count up the 16 different possible results from flipping four coins, you'll see that the chances of reaching those five outcomes is 1:4:6:4:1. So, six out of 16 is 37.5%, or more than a third of the time, on average.
                        With all due respect, I didn't say anything about the odds of any of the events happening. I simply said only one of the possible outcomes results in a 50/50 outcome. And as you pointed out, having exactly a 50/50 outcome is a longshot.
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                        • Profile picture of the author David Beroff
                          Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

                          With all due respect, I didn't say anything about the odds of any of the events happening. I simply said only one of the possible outcomes results in a 50/50 outcome. And as you pointed out, having exactly a 50/50 outcome is a longshot.
                          Well, some might misread your earlier statement. I did. Sorry.
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  • Profile picture of the author Kurt
    RNG in slots and video poker machines uses timing. The number is generated based on the milisecond the "play" button is pushed.

    The average human reaction time is around .75 seconds. An exceptional, elite athlete may reach .25 seconds in reaction time.

    Since the RGN "rotates" numbers at .001 seconds, it is much faster than is humanly possible. While an RGN software program may not be completly "random", the time the "play" button is pushed is.

    People think a machine is "hot" or "cold". In reality, what matters is the precise 1/1000th of a second they press the play button. And no human comes close to having the reaction time to manipulate the RGN in this way.
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    • Profile picture of the author HeySal
      Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

      RNG in slots and video poker machines uses timing. The number is generated based on the milisecond the "play" button is pushed.

      The average human reaction time is around .75 seconds. An exceptional, elite athlete may reach .25 seconds in reaction time.

      Since the RGN "rotates" numbers at .001 seconds, it is much faster than is humanly possible. While an RGN software program may not be completly "random", the time the "play" button is pushed is.

      People think a machine is "hot" or "cold". In reality, what matters is the precise 1/1000th of a second they press the play button. And no human comes close to having the reaction time to manipulate the RGN in this way.
      That's why when I play a machine if it is "cold" I'll either stop playing for a minute or so or play faster. Change the rhythm. It doesn't always work, but very often it does.

      Another thing about odds - machines aren't all set on the same percentages. There will be several on the lowest payback allowed (I think in CO that was 76% if I remember rightly) and several on the highest, with different machines set on different payouts throughout the casino. The ones that are set the highest are usually set in strategic areas of the casino - near doors to restaurants or bars or the front door so people who are not playing already will see a lot of "action" going on. The machines are also set to make a decent amount of noise every time they hit and someone can be hitting very low - like cherries which give only double the bet back then let you play two or three more times before hitting them again, so that it sounds like a person is just raking it in when they are remaining about even. There's just all sorts of little gimmicks casinos use like those.

      I lived with a professional poker player for 7 years, and truth be told, I can't stand to play cards anymore. I like the slots but never would try to play them for profit.

      Even if you could play for a living -- is sitting forceably in a casino for 8 hours or more a day any worse than going to a job for that many hours? I can think of one heck of a lot of jobs that I'd rather have than that.
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      • Profile picture of the author lanfear63
        Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

        That's why when I play a machine if it is "cold" I'll either stop playing for a minute or so or play faster. Change the rhythm. It doesn't always work, but very often it does.

        Another thing about odds - machines aren't all set on the same percentages. There will be several on the lowest payback allowed (I think in CO that was 76% if I remember rightly) and several on the highest, with different machines set on different payouts throughout the casino. The ones that are set the highest are usually set in strategic areas of the casino - near doors to restaurants or bars or the front door so people who are not playing already will see a lot of "action" going on. The machines are also set to make a decent amount of noise every time they hit and someone can be hitting very low - like cherries which give only double the bet back then let you play two or three more times before hitting them again, so that it sounds like a person is just raking it in when they are remaining about even. There's just all sorts of little gimmicks casinos use like those.

        I lived with a professional poker player for 7 years, and truth be told, I can't stand to play cards anymore. I like the slots but never would try to play them for profit.

        Even if you could play for a living -- is sitting forceably in a casino for 8 hours or more a day any worse than going to a job for that many hours? I can think of one heck of a lot of jobs that I'd rather have than that.
        Lets say that I went back and what I was doing worked consistently. Just to find out how long I would have to stay there and what I wanted to walk out with. If I was just after the 100 bucks a day, based on how long I spent last time it would be under an hour. So you could do 8 hours one day a week. and get 800 bucks.

        I live in a state where slots and casinos are not allowed. They have a coach that takes 3.5 hours to get there and you can catch one back 5 hours later or stay overnight if you wish and catch one back the next day. It cost 16 bucks return (subsidized by the casino) When you get there they put 16 bucks on your players card. It has a restroom and plays movies. Quite comfortable.

        Did it once and was surrounded by people in their sixties and I got the impression that some welfare checks were going south.

        If I was doing this on a regular basis I would not be using my players card, vary the days and keep as low a possible profile. Otherwise after a while they would start to notice that this guy comes in once a week and walk out with 800 bucks on a regular basis. They might start to watch you. Not that they would find anything untoward

        Last time I went there it was Presidents Day weekend. On Saturday night, out of the 2800 machines, hardly one was spare. They had some big draws. based on people using the machines and players card usage. Called out names, Fred Jones, you have won 10 k.

        So Saturday nights not a good time to play. Best in the mornings or afternoons when you have the run of the machines to choose from.

        A what if scenario all this and of course there are far more satisfying and creative ways to make money!
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  • Profile picture of the author rondo
    We have poker machines everywhere here in my state. Every pub in every suburb has them, and the many RSL (veteran) and sport clubs each have 100's of them too.
    I don't usually play them but about a year ago I won $2000 on the first push of the button!! a $6 bet.

    Andrew
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  • Profile picture of the author Kurt
    Here's an interesting "gambling system" I just stumbled upon that looks like it has lots of potential. I havent' tried it, but it claims to be a scientific system to win at Rock, Paper Scissors...sorry, no mention of Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizards, Spock.

    It looks interesting and if it does work, you may not get rich, but you could possibly always get "shotgun" when taking a ride in a car, get the other guy to pay for dinner, get the last slice of pizza, etc.

    It's kind of sneaky, but I like the "no one plays best of one" suggestion and I want the last slice of pizza!

    How to win at 'Rock, Paper, Scissors' - Technology & science - Science - LiveScience | NBC News
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    Kurt - just some FYI for ya - Remember when gaming commissioner in Central City (his last name was Wahl) was arrested and jailed? He had his casinos running about double the number of highest payout machines allowable by law, which is the reason why his casinos were always loaded. His customers were winning more often. Being the commissioner he had access to change the machine payout rates somehow. He was finally nailed and arrested..........well for that and for bilking his partner out of a few mil. LOL
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  • Profile picture of the author RickCopy
    The only casino game that can mathematically be "beaten" is table poker, and that's because you're not playing the house. Every other game has an inherent, mathematical house edge.

    obviously you can win... but the casino doesnt care about wins. The games are designed to return a profit overall. you could win a million dollars on that first pull, but if you pull it a million more times the casino could actually calculate down to a couple bucks how much money you'll have left.

    It doesnt matter if you win then get up and go to a new machine...same house edge. In the casino's eyes its the same game. As long as you're not playing poker the casino actually averages out your overall losses based on the house edge of all games in the casino.

    Noodle on this...

    you're playing roulette and black has hit 50 times in a row. There's absolutely no statistical advantage of betting on red (or either of the 2 greens) on spin 51 whatsoever.

    This is also why the popular "martingale" system (and all its variants) is also complete and utter BS.

    if you want to make money at the casino, learn to play poker...well.
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    • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
      Originally Posted by RickCopy View Post

      you're playing roulette and black has hit 50 times in a row. There's absolutely no statistical advantage of betting on red (or either of the 2 greens) on spin 51 whatsoever.

      This is also why the popular "martingale" system (and all its variants) is also complete and utter BS.

      if you want to make money at the casino, learn to play poker...well.
      True, Roulette's recorded record was 28 blacks in a row, in 1913, (well early 1900's).

      But all systems will ultimately fail, since the Roulette ball is random. Random meaning, find a pattern and it will fall apart over time.

      The only way to win at Roulette with a mathematical system is to give it a try and if you end up ahead, then quit!


      Shane
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