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Investing in Corn?

by HN Banned
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Corn is trading near 4-year lows just above $400
The price has been falling for 8 weeks since early May.

Is anyone here investing in Corn?
What do you think of this investment plan?
1/3 at $400
1/3 at $350
1/3 at $300
  • Profile picture of the author ThomM
    Do you understand why corn is dropping?
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    • Profile picture of the author ThomM
      I'll give you a couple hints.
      Crain's Chicago Business : Subscription Center

      GM maize: rise to 90 percent
      In the case of maize, the proportion occupied by GM plants rose further by 2 percent and now totals 90 percent. The field area reaches a record level with 39.3 million hectares. More than two thirds of the GM maize varieties from spring 2013 (71 percent) have several insect and herbicide-tolerances (stacked genes). 2012, the proportion was only 50 percent. USA: Cultivation of GM plants, 2013
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      • Profile picture of the author thunderbird
        Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

        This seems completely insane. Humans don't share the same tolerances to herbicides (unless GMO humans are on the horizon).
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        • Profile picture of the author ThomM
          Originally Posted by thunderbird View Post

          This seems completely insane. Humans don't share the same tolerances to herbicides (unless GMO humans are on the horizon).
          I'm just kind of amazed that China uses strict scientific research to verify the safety statements on imports.
          It would be nice if we (the US) did the same. We pretty much just except the word of the producers.
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          • Profile picture of the author MissTerraK
            Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

            I'm just kind of amazed that China uses strict scientific research to verify the safety statements on imports.
            It would be nice if we (the US) did the same. We pretty much just except the word of the producers.
            No pun intended?


            Terra
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            • Profile picture of the author ThomM
              Originally Posted by MissTerraK View Post

              No pun intended?


              Terra
              Never noticed
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            • Profile picture of the author SteveJohnson
              Originally Posted by MissTerraK View Post

              No pun intended?

              Terra
              That was corny.
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      • Profile picture of the author Floyd Fisher
        Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

        You don't eat GM corn...it's made for cooking oils and biofuels.

        So all that number you're touting means is almost no one in the US is producing corn for human consumption.
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        • Profile picture of the author ThomM
          Originally Posted by Floyd Fisher View Post

          You don't eat GM corn...it's made for cooking oils and biofuels.

          So all that number you're touting means is almost no one in the US is producing corn for human consumption.
          It's also used for corn syrup and high fructose corn syrup, which are in almost everything you eat, so yeah you do eat GM corn and a lot of it.
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          • Profile picture of the author Floyd Fisher
            Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

            It's also used for corn syrup and high fructose corn syrup, which are in almost everything you eat, so yeah you do eat GM corn and a lot of it.
            Not directly.....if you actually tried eating it, you would give new meaning to the words 'projectile vomiting'.

            Frankly, I don't know why people are so afraid of GMO foods anyhow...it's science, so it should be double plus good right?
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            • Profile picture of the author ThomM
              Originally Posted by Floyd Fisher View Post

              Not directly.....if you actually tried eating it, you would give new meaning to the words 'projectile vomiting'.

              Frankly, I don't know why people are so afraid of GMO foods anyhow...it's science, so it should be double plus good right?
              Sure the nuke was science so that should double plus good also.
              If you study the actual science behind it you wouldn't be that comfortable eating it or knowing if it is being grown near you.
              Take for example the Bt crops. The science behind is taking the toxin out of the bacteria and injecting it into the corn cells, then the cells are duplicated (like in tissue cultures). Supposedly the toxin break down in our stomaches rendering them harmless. Now here's the unintended consequences.
              In order to know which cells the toxins took in, an activator is added so only the cells with an active toxin are replicated. The activator doesn't breakdown in our stomachs and effect our own gut bacteria "turning them on" full time and not just when there is food to digest. This leads to leaky bowel syndrome which is now being shown to cause all sorts of problems like Autism. Plus now the insects that where originally targeted to the toxin are becoming immune so stronger toxins are being tried out. One (the only GM corn not approved for human consumption) Doesn't break down in our guts.
              Now look what Round-up ready crops have down. The idea there is to make the plant immune to round-up so farmers can spray multiple times during a growing season as opposed to once before the crop germinates and grows.
              We where told that Glyphosate which is the broad spectrum herbicide in round-up, breaks down into harmless elements when it comes in contact with the soil. That was a lie.
              Glyphosate is so common in the environment now that when the USGS did a study of all the different water (ground water, rain water, lake and river water) in the Mississippi river basin, all of it tested positive for the chemical.
              Glyphosate has recently been linked to different birth defects. Oh yea, we now also have weeds that are immune to round-up which means the bio industry is coming out with crops that are immune to more dangerous chemicals like 2 4 D which is a dioxin.
              If the manufacturers of GM crops followed the actual science behind them and the science that is the result of them, we wouldn't be having this conversation because there wouldn't be the dangerous GM crops that are out there.
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              • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
                Oh, we turned from investing in corn to Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). I'm overcome with NOT surprise.

                6. Consider the Additives

                The five most prevalent GMO crops of corn, canola, soy, cotton and sugar beets end up as additives in all kinds of packaged foods as corn syrup, oil, sugar, flavoring agents, thickeners and other additives. Over 70% of packaged food products in North America contain GMOs. Choose organic or Non-GMO Project Verified.
                GMO: Your Right to Know | Whole Foods Market

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                • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                  Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

                  Oh, we turned from investing in corn to Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). I'm overcome with NOT surprise.

                  GMO: Your Right to Know | Whole Foods Market

                  Joe Mobley
                  Well I did point out that one possibility of why corn was dropping is because of countries refusing to buy our G.M. corn, so it does tie into the original question.
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                  • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
                    According to the National Corn Growers Association, about eighty percent of all corn grown in the U.S. is consumed by domestic and overseas livestock, poultry, and fish production. The National Corn Growers Association also reports that each American consumes 25 pounds of corn annually. The crop is fed as ground grain, silage, high-moisture, and high-oil corn. About 12% of the U.S. corn crop ends up in foods that are either consumed directly (e.g. corn chips) or indirectly (e.g. high fructose corn syrup). Cornhas a wide array of industrial uses including ethanol, a popular oxygenate in cleaner burning auto fuels. In addition many household products contain corn, including paints, candles, fireworks, drywall, sandpaper, dyes, crayons, shoe polish, antibiotics, and adhesives.
                    Bold is mine.

                    Major Crops Grown in the United States | Ag 101 | Agriculture | US EPA

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                    • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                      Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

                      And if our overseas markets are refusing shipments wouldn't that effect the price of corn futures?
                      One theory is China is rejecting shipments just to manipulate the price of corn, using the "not approved gm type" as an excuse.
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              • Profile picture of the author HeySal
                Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                Sure the nuke was science so that should double plus good also.
                If you study the actual science behind it you wouldn't be that comfortable eating it or knowing if it is being grown near you.
                Take for example the Bt crops. The science behind is taking the toxin out of the bacteria and injecting it into the corn cells, then the cells are duplicated (like in tissue cultures). Supposedly the toxin break down in our stomaches rendering them harmless. Now here's the unintended consequences.
                In order to know which cells the toxins took in, an activator is added so only the cells with an active toxin are replicated. The activator doesn't breakdown in our stomachs and effect our own gut bacteria "turning them on" full time and not just when there is food to digest. This leads to leaky bowel syndrome which is now being shown to cause all sorts of problems like Autism. Plus now the insects that where originally targeted to the toxin are becoming immune so stronger toxins are being tried out. One (the only GM corn not approved for human consumption) Doesn't break down in our guts.
                Now look what Round-up ready crops have down. The idea there is to make the plant immune to round-up so farmers can spray multiple times during a growing season as opposed to once before the crop germinates and grows.
                We where told that Glyphosate which is the broad spectrum herbicide in round-up, breaks down into harmless elements when it comes in contact with the soil. That was a lie.
                Glyphosate is so common in the environment now that when the USGS did a study of all the different water (ground water, rain water, lake and river water) in the Mississippi river basin, all of it tested positive for the chemical.
                Glyphosate has recently been linked to different birth defects. Oh yea, we now also have weeds that are immune to round-up which means the bio industry is coming out with crops that are immune to more dangerous chemicals like 2 4 D which is a dioxin.
                If the manufacturers of GM crops followed the actual science behind them and the science that is the result of them, we wouldn't be having this conversation because there wouldn't be the dangerous GM crops that are out there.
                You forgot the fact that the pesticide in the cell is self-replicated so turns the intestinal track into a living toxin factory. This toxin has been shown to cause massive tumors, too.

                In the environment - that glysophate kills everything - including the microbes that make soil. No soil = no life. Those fields are sterile, no animals, no soil bacteria - and for the most part no insect life, except for the ones that eat the corn, which have mutated so they can live eating that toxin.

                It's a freaking mess.
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                • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                  You forgot the fact that the pesticide in the cell is self-replicated so turns the intestinal track into a living toxin factory. This toxin has been shown to cause massive tumors, too.
                  Actually Sal it's more a case of the activator turning our gut bacteria into non stop toxins.
                  Our gut bacteria act in a similar way to the bacteria the toxin is taken from. They lie dormant until food we eat passes by which they then commence to chow down on. Their "poop" is the nutrients that are transfered to us through our gut walls.
                  It's almost exactly the way bacteria and microbes attach to plant roots forming a symbiotic relationship with the plant. The microbes get a place to live and in return they eat the substances in the soil, transferring the nutrients directly to the plant in a form that the plant roots can use.
                  Our gut bacteria do the same. When the activator from the Bt crops enter our guts it "turns on" our gut bacteria making them active all the time. When there is no food passing through the gut for them to eat they attack the gut wall eating it.
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                  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
                    Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                    Actually Sal it's more a case of the activator turning our gut bacteria into non stop toxins.
                    Our gut bacteria act in a similar way to the bacteria the toxin is taken from. They lie dormant until food we eat passes by which they then commence to chow down on. Their "poop" is the nutrients that are transfered to us through our gut walls.
                    It's almost exactly the way bacteria and microbes attach to plant roots forming a symbiotic relationship with the plant. The microbes get a place to live and in return they eat the substances in the soil, transferring the nutrients directly to the plant in a form that the plant roots can use.
                    Our gut bacteria do the same. When the activator from the Bt crops enter our guts it "turns on" our gut bacteria making them active all the time. When there is no food passing through the gut for them to eat they attack the gut wall eating it.
                    Yep - that, too. The corn is supposed to make the insect's stomach's explode. Cows that are eating it are getting pretty sick. So the factory farms have just gotten it through the USDA that they can sell the meat with soars, tumors, etc for us to ingest.

                    No thanks. The meat I eat is humanely raised - and organically fed.
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          • Profile picture of the author seasoned
            Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

            It's also used for corn syrup and high fructose corn syrup, which are in almost everything you eat, so yeah you do eat GM corn and a lot of it.
            The same type of corn can be used for sugar, food, OR ethanol. But it loses a LOT of value as a food without the sugar and starch, In fact, if you get rid of the sugar and starch, almost ALL the value is GONE!!!! And you need the sugar and starch to make ethanol. So this means that the user must PICK ONE! A given kernel of corn can be used for ethanol, HFC, or food, but NOT for all three unless you want degraded value elsewhere.

            Of course cobs and plants can be used for ethanol and the kernels for others. Then again, I THINK the cobs and plants are used for animal feed also. COWS and the like are better able to extract such nutrition.

            Steve
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            • Profile picture of the author ThomM
              Originally Posted by seasoned View Post

              The same type of corn can be used for sugar, food, OR ethanol. But it loses a LOT of value as a food without the sugar and starch, In fact, if you get rid of the sugar and starch, almost ALL the value is GONE!!!! And you need the sugar and starch to make ethanol. So this means that the user must PICK ONE! A given kernel of corn can be used for ethanol, HFC, or food, but NOT for all three unless you want degraded value elsewhere.

              Of course cobs and plants can be used for ethanol and the kernels for others. Then again, I THINK the cobs and plants are used for animal feed also. COWS and the like are better able to extract such nutrition.

              Steve
              The majority of the corn grown, especially on the large corporate farms just goes into grain elevators and is distributed from there. There's not a lot of separation going on. Plus corn is wind pollinated so cross contamination is rampant. That's the reason Mexico has recently banned all gm corn from their country. Mexico is one of the very few countries (maybe the only one) that places a high value on their traditional corn varieties and in keeping those strains as pure as possible.
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              • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                The majority of the corn grown, especially on the large corporate farms just goes into grain elevators and is distributed from there. There's not a lot of separation going on. Plus corn is wind pollinated so cross contamination is rampant. That's the reason Mexico has recently banned all gm corn from their country. Mexico is one of the very few countries (maybe the only one) that places a high value on their traditional corn varieties and in keeping those strains as pure as possible.
                The separation I spoke of is done by the USER. THEY MUST pick one. If they use it for ethanol, it won't be used for food.or byproducts.

                Steve
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                • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                  Originally Posted by seasoned View Post

                  The separation I spoke of is done by the USER. THEY MUST pick one. If they use it for ethanol, it won't be used for food.or byproducts.

                  Steve
                  I see what you're saying.
                  I think the only exception is with what we used to call cow corn. Which maybe what is also used to make ethanol (have never really researched it)
                  Cow corn or feed corn (if you will) is a type of corn that when picked the sugars is quickly converted into starches. I would eat it a lot when I was a kid. Fresh picked and raw it was pretty good. When we cooked it we would get a pot of water boiling then pick some corn and immediately throw it in the pot. Even just waiting an hour the corn would loose some of it's sugar.
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                  • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                    Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                    I see what you're saying.
                    I think the only exception is with what we used to call cow corn. Which maybe what is also used to make ethanol (have never really researched it)
                    Cow corn or feed corn (if you will) is a type of corn that when picked the sugars is quickly converted into starches. I would eat it a lot when I was a kid. Fresh picked and raw it was pretty good. When we cooked it we would get a pot of water boiling then pick some corn and immediately throw it in the pot. Even just waiting an hour the corn would loose some of it's sugar.
                    But STARCHES can ALSO be converted to ethanol.

                    Steve
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                    • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                      Originally Posted by seasoned View Post

                      But STARCHES can ALSO be converted to ethanol.

                      Steve
                      I know. What I was getting at was the feed corn coverts more quickly then sweet corn varieties.
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  • Profile picture of the author HN
    Banned
    I've got no idea at all.

    This?
    Prices remained under pressure after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday that domestic corn stockpiles totaled 3.854 billion bushels on June 1, 39% higher than the year-earlier level.

    The price fell by more than $20 on Monday, biggest loss in several months.
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    • Profile picture of the author ThomM
      Originally Posted by HN View Post

      I've got no idea at all.

      This?
      Prices remained under pressure after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday that domestic corn stockpiles totaled 3.854 billion bushels on June 1, 39% higher than the year-earlier level.

      The price fell by more than $20 on Monday, biggest loss in several months.
      Stands to reason we would have huge stockpiles when other countries that are major importers of our corn don't want it and more and more farms are refusing to feed it to their animals.
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      • Profile picture of the author Kay King
        Didn't we increase corn production in the past few years due to a previous shortage caused by using corn for ethanol production?

        I remember the price of corn went up drastically but only for a couple years - then the production rose to meet the demand. If ethanol demand continues to drop we could end with low corn prices.

        There's always a way to look at these things to support what you want to see...question is, which can you trust?
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        • Profile picture of the author ThomM
          Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

          Didn't we increase corn production in the past few years due to a previous shortage caused by using corn for ethanol production?

          I remember the price of corn went up drastically but only for a couple years - then the production rose to meet the demand. If ethanol demand continues to drop we could end with low corn prices.

          There's always a way to look at these things to support what you want to see...question is, which can you trust?
          I don't know if the demand has dropped or if the market has become saturated. It's almost impossible to find gas around here that doesn't contain ethanol.
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  • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
    That $400 is actually $4. You can trade a "contract" of corn at about $4.20 per bushel (this morning) on the CBT, Chicago Board of Trade. There are also "options" on corn.

    Since 1 contract is 5,000 bushels, how are you thinking of investing?

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agri...iration=301-U4

    Joe Mobley



    Originally Posted by HN View Post

    Corn is trading near 4-year lows just above $400
    The price has been falling for 8 weeks since early May.

    Is anyone here investing in Corn?
    What do you think of this investment plan?
    1/3 at $400
    1/3 at $350
    1/3 at $300
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    • Profile picture of the author HN
      Banned
      Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

      That $400 is actually $4. You can trade a "contract" of corn at about $4.20 per bushel (this morning) on the CBT, Chicago Board of Trade. There are also "options" on corn.

      Since 1 contract is 5,000 bushels, how are you thinking of investing?

      http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agri...iration=301-U4

      Joe Mobley
      I trade at Plus500. Yes, the price is quoted in US cents, so that's 409 cents, not dollars. 1 contract at Plus500 equals however 100 bushels, and the unit amount is 5 contracts, so 500 bushels. The leverage is 1:152
      Commodities | Corn | ZC

      So 5 contracts would require $13.15 (initial margin) and price change of 1 cent per bushel would result in $5 gain or loss.

      Possible scenarios
      Buy 10 contracts (A) at $400
      Price falls to $350, that's $500 loss on first investment A, Buy another 10 contracts (B)
      Price falls to $300, that's $1000 loss (A) and $500 loss (B), Buy another 10 contracts (C)
      Price falls to $100, that's total loss $7500 [-$3000 (A) -$2500 (B) -$2000 (C)]

      But if only orders A and B get filled and price rises to $550 that would be $3500 profit
      $1500 on investment A and $2000 on investment B.

      But if only order A is filled and price starts going up and reaches $500, that would be $1000 profit on $26 investment.
      $26 because as soon as the price starts going up, I no longer need to keep the security margin in this account and can invest it into other instruments or withdraw. And only the initial margin ($26) will remain tied up in this investment.
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    Monsanto and a few other GM companies own that 90% of the corn. Because we are having a hard time getting GMO labeling on our food, and because people are sick of what GMO is doing to our environment, there's a move on to drop stocks of the GMO producing companies.

    That's why stocks are falling. As people wake up to the fact of what they are supporting with corn financials - they are going to continue to drop the stocks of these companies. It's going to drop like a brick of cement in water as the movement to get rid of these crops grows.

    Also - the EU just dropped GMO corn completely. They've refused any contracts and Monsanto is moving out of the EU...not sure about Syngenta or Dow, but with contracts being denied, they probably are out, too.

    I'd say that the moral thing to do right now - and the most ecologically correct, is just to forget about GMO crop investing. If you want to invest in corn - give the money to an organic grower and help re-establish crops that don't kill everything and anything they come near.
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    • Profile picture of the author Alexa Smith
      Banned
      Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

      I'm just kind of amazed that China uses strict scientific research to verify the safety statements on imports. It would be nice if we (the US) did the same. We pretty much just except the word of the producers.
      I suspect that's a kind of historical/social problem, caused in part by the prevalence of people opposed to regulation, or what they might see as "government interference".

      Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

      I'd say that the moral thing to do right now - and the most ecologically correct, is just to forget about GMO crop investing. If you want to invest in corn - give the money to an organic grower and help re-establish crops that don't kill everything and anything they come near.
      This.
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      • Profile picture of the author ThomM
        Originally Posted by Alexa Smith View Post

        I suspect that's a kind of historical/social problem, caused in part by the prevalence of people opposed to regulation, or what they might see as "government interference".



        This.
        I don't know Alexa, if that was the case we wouldn't have the thousands and thousands of regulations that we currently have. I think it's more a case of the corporations lobbying the govt. for regulations that are to their advantage and the govt. setting up trade agreements that are to their advantage.
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        • Profile picture of the author Kay King
          Thom - There have been an increasing number of studies and papers released in recent months questioning the usefulness of ethanol....and questioning whether ethanol is BAD for the environment contrary to early studies.

          You can't buy gas without ethanol right now - but if the studies gain traction it wouldn't take much for ethanol to be "out"...that would shake up some farm markets!

          http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamescon...-is-of-no-use/
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          • Profile picture of the author seasoned
            Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

            Thom - There have been an increasing number of studies and papers released in recent months questioning the usefulness of ethanol....and questioning whether ethanol is BAD for the environment contrary to early studies.

            You can't buy gas without ethanol right now - but if the studies gain traction it wouldn't take much for ethanol to be "out"...that would shake up some farm markets!

            It's Final -- Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use - Forbes
            Ethanol is *********EXPENSIVE*********! I mean if you look at ethanol as cheap fuel, it LOOKS cheap, and THAT is why it caught on. ALSO, farmers can have a lot of it ROT and STILL be usable! SOUNDS GREAT! Sounds like a WIN/WIN, RIGHT? It IS! It is a WIN/WIN/LOSE/LOSE!

            So WHO looses? Corn becomes more expensive, real estate usage gets hurt, and OTHER crops get less attention. Fewer people get fed.

            So ethanol IS a problem. BTW HISTORICALLY goes has been 10-15% ethanol. More than that and many engines that are like 1970-2001 start to get hurt. But they HAVE tried to create flex fuel vehicles that flip that and are 85% ethanol. It is called E85. NOW, they are having second thoughts, because it IS expensive!


            ALSO:

            E85 vs. Gasoline Comparison Test

            Using their sign, and the milage changes specified:

            GAS: 3.499
            E85: 4.665 (normalized to equivalent MPG)

            So even HERE, and the COST, it is EXPENSIVE!

            Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    They want cheap fuel? Hemp. Screw the GMO corn scam.
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    Sal
    When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
    Beyond the Path

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