Is The U.S. Headed For Another Recession?

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I don't like to be the bringer of "doom and gloom" news, however this is the second expert I've heard say that it's inevitable. The first guy said that it wouldn't happen until 2016, but this guy believes it will happen as soon as next year. Actually, I believe I also read something similar from Ken McCarthy (System Seminar fame and IM legend) a few months ago.

Contrarian's Case: Why US Could Dip Into Recession - ABC News

This guy's entire family have made correct predictions on every major downturn to the U.S. economy all the way back to the stock market crash in 1929.

I've been considering buying less inventory since this winter was so bad anyway. This is even more reason to watch my "Ps & Qs". I'd just placed a huge order right before the War in Iraq began and I couldn't hardly sell anything after that because everyone was afraid to spend any money. I went from doing really well to being out of business in just a few short months. It really messed me up and it took years to repair my credit. I'm taking baby steps these days.

It's definitely worth a read.

Joe
  • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
    The U.S. has had plenty of recessions before and will have a recession again. The question is how bad of a recession will they be?

    Since really, really bad downturns don't happen that often, I predict we won't have another problem like in 1929 or in 2007-2008 again for at least another 40-50 years.

    Here's an image of previous U.S. recessions since 1940...

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    • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
      Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

      The U.S. has had plenty of recessions before and will have a recession again. The question is how bad of a recession will they be?

      Since really, really bad downturns don't happen that often, I predict we won't have another problem like in 1929 or in 2007-2008 again for at least another 40-50 years.

      Here's an image of previous U.S. recessions since 1940...

      I certainly hope you're right about it not being as bad. The guy that predicted it would happen next and the guy that predicted 2016 both predicted an implosion of the housing market, but both said that it would be worse than the last.

      I was shocked to see that many prominent nations are already either in a recession or teetering on the edge of one. This guy's talking global recession - again. I certainly hope that he's wrong, but I'm going to remain a bit more conservative in some areas, just in case. :-)
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      • Profile picture of the author Steven Wagenheim
        I didn't know we were out of the last one.
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        • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
          Originally Posted by Steven Wagenheim View Post

          I didn't know we were out of the last one.
          Although the effects are still being felt from the recession, especially in some markets, the U.S. hasn't been in a recession since June, 2009. The recovery has been painfully slow, I agree with that.

          Great Recession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

          It's hit my industry hard in many ways. Many smaller companies have gone out of business. Some companies that used to be quite large have shrunk down to just the owner and 1-2 helpers. I used to regularly get good sized orders, but they're not as frequent anymore. I'm just doing a lot of cold calling so I can build up my customer base. Spread things around.

          I'm being very diverse these days, as are many of my competitors. Everyone's afraid to put all their eggs in one basket.
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          • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
            The media love gloom and doom since it sells more products, and l have followed a professional corporation with this sort of stuff, and they tended to hype it up or make it sound as bad as possible to sell more books, etc.

            And also considering their predictions about silver stock going up, was wrong as well, put me off them. Silver has taken a few dives since then.

            It should be inevitable, that the US will go under, (their ability to repay or manage their lones, disappeared in 1987).

            But how hard they will fall, and how long is still up in the air?

            A war, or Europe bailing them out, could still give them a soft landing.

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            • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
              Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

              The media love gloom and doom since it sells more products, and l have followed a professional corporation with this sort of stuff, and they tended to hype it up or make it sound as bad as possible to sell more books, etc.

              And also considering their predictions about silver stock going up, was wrong as well, put me off them. Silver has taken a few dives since then.

              It should be inevitable, that the US will go under, (their ability to repay or manage their lones, disappeared in 1987).

              But how hard they will fall, and how long is still up in the air?

              A war, or Europe bailing them out, could still give them a soft landing.

              You said...

              It should be inevitable, that the US will go under,

              (their ability to repay or manage their lones, disappeared in 1987).

              What exactly do you mean "go under?"

              If the U.S. ability to repay loans disappeared in 1987 - as you said above, then why are folks practically standing in line to loan the U.S. money at historically low rates?


              Last I heard it was about $359 Billion in annual interest payments to various creditors that is being paid without a hitch and without doubt unless we get another debt ceiling showdown on the horizon.


              A war for what?



              And..


              Europe does not bail us out we bail them out.


              If there's to be any bailing out, but we can bail our own selves out.



              Thanks!

              TL
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              • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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                Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

                You said...

                It should be inevitable, that the US will go under,
                The Doom and Gloom crowd - still at it. The folks that have nothing good to say about our country. All they can say is, "it's in the toilet." Well, if it is, we know who put it there and who's working as hard as they can to keep it there.

                Hey, can we have another vote on the Affordable Care Act, please? I doubt they're done beating that to death.

                Cutting spending is the worst thing you can do - except for maybe huge tax breaks for the 1% and more giveaways to corporations that don't already pay taxes.

                What a pack of losers.

                Cheers. - Frank
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                • Profile picture of the author Kay King
                  Doesn't do any good to worry about it - an pronouncements of either doom and gloom or blue skies make no difference in the end.

                  I just try to keep my life planned well enough that I can survive for a good while at least no matter what the economy does.
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                • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
                  Originally Posted by BigFrank View Post

                  The Doom and Gloom crowd - still at it. The folks that have nothing good to say about our country. All they can say is, "it's in the toilet." Well, if it is, we know who put it there and who's working as hard as they can to keep it there.

                  Hey, can we have another vote on the Affordable Care Act, please? I doubt they're done beating that to death.

                  Cutting spending is the worst thing you can do - except for maybe huge tax breaks for the 1% and more giveaways to corporations that don't already pay taxes.

                  What a pack of losers.

                  Cheers. - Frank
                  We sure have our hands full with reactionary elements holding a lot of sway in U.S. gov circles these days.

                  BTW...

                  I believe the American people of the 1930s were a lot savvier - in many ways than the crowd we have in the country today.


                  And unfortunately ...

                  Some people have resigned themselves to throwing up their hands and saying it doesn't matter one way or the other because events are out of our control - but I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with that sentiment because as far as I'm concerned...

                  The numbers are in and one group has historically done a much, much better job on the economy and the living standards of the American people than the other.

                  Anyways...


                  Our friend who made this statement...

                  "It should be inevitable, that the US will go under,"


                  ... is from down under...

                  ... so maybe he was only talking about just another recession sooner or later which isn't a bad bet and not another serious financial calamity like the great recession or even the great depression, but I don't get the stuff about the U.S. not being able to service our debt, Europe bailing us out or the possibility a war bailing us out.

                  I have asked him to give us more insight into what he meant.
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                  • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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                    Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

                    Our friend who made this statement...

                    "It should be inevitable, that the US will go under,"

                    ... is from down under...
                    Oh - then who cares? lol

                    I have asked him to give us more insight into what he meant.
                    Please refer to above comment.

                    Cheers. - Frank
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                    • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
                      Originally Posted by BigFrank View Post

                      Oh - then who cares? lol

                      Please refer to above comment.

                      Cheers. - Frank
                      I'm curious.


                      Regarding your signature line about the Borg's "resistance is futile" warning, did you see the episode of Voyager when the Borg started some crap with species 8249?
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                • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
                  Originally Posted by BigFrank View Post

                  The Doom and Gloom crowd - still at it. The folks that have nothing good to say about our country. All they can say is, "it's in the toilet." Well, if it is, we know who put it there and who's working as hard as they can to keep it there.

                  Hey, can we have another vote on the Affordable Care Act, please? I doubt they're done beating that to death.

                  Cutting spending is the worst thing you can do - except for maybe huge tax breaks for the 1% and more giveaways to corporations that don't already pay taxes.

                  What a pack of losers.

                  Cheers. - Frank

                  All I did was share a link from ABC News. When my offline business went under the first time I'd just placed my largest order ever. I didn't pay any attention to what was going on around me and I still don't "obsess" on it. Still, I've been bitten hard and it hurt.

                  The second time my offline business went under, mostly because of the recession, I was more prepared. I had already been working on a backup plan (online) and when things went under that time I was actually making more online anyway, so it wasn't as big of a deal.

                  I have customers all over the country and I just came off the worst winter that I can recall in this industry, maybe the worst since I first got into it over 20 years ago. Not just the winter, though. Even with bad winters things usually begin to pick up again by early to mid May. Not so this year. I had a short burst at the end of May followed by a bad June, though it is starting to pick up now in most areas. Most, but not all.

                  Another thing, I'm hearing more and more of smaller business owners shutting down or selling out and taking jobs for bigger firms. I've lost two customers so far this year for that reason.

                  By the way, much of what I do is indirectly related to the housing market.

                  I'm not trying to be the bearer of "doom and gloom" and I am NOT a loser! I haven't punched a time clock in 14 years and have lived pretty well, even with the setbacks. That's because I work my butt off!

                  If a recession doesn't happen again in the near future I'll be doing backflips. That would make me extremely happy, because I don't want people to suffer anymore. However, having been there, done that and seeing what I've seen the past few months, I'd be a fool not to pay attention.

                  I won't stop spending. I have to buy in order to sell. I'm just not going to stick my neck out by placing large orders just to stock inventory.
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                  • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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                    Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

                    I'm not trying to be the bearer of "doom and gloom" and I am NOT a loser! I haven't punched a time clock in 14 years and have lived pretty well, even with the setbacks. That's because I work my butt off!
                    Joe - being a 'loser' has nothing to do with how much money one has. To me, it has to do with a mind-set. Some folks think that Donald Trump is a god because he's uber-rich. To me - total loser. If folks knew how he got rich then wouldn't be so enamored. Then again, probably many of them would because they are total losers just like he is.
                    I won't stop spending. I have to buy in order to sell. I'm just not going to stick my neck out by placing large orders just to stock inventory.
                    The fastest way to have a recession is for everyone to stop spending. You appear to be taking what sounds like a prudent course of action. There's nothing wrong with being cautious. It's when we allow fear to immobilize us that we get into trouble.

                    Cheers. - Frank
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                    • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
                      As mercenary as this sounds, there are always opportunities.

                      If the economy is great, sell stuff, people are buying.

                      When the economy is starting to dive, that's when to buy, because people are scared.

                      As an example. In 1999-2000 there was a huge demand and supply of whole house air purifiers. They cost $300 wholesale and sold for $600 retail. I sold them out of my retail store.

                      Then, the company had trouble, dealers were stuck with tons of inventory, and couldn't move them. There was still demand, but not like it was...

                      Soooo....

                      I ran a classified ad saying "We pay cash for Alpine air purifiers, new or used. Any quantity call....."

                      People would call. We offered $150 for new new and $100 (or a tad less) for used ones.
                      75% of the people thought we were evil. Many thought we were going to buy at retail.
                      But 25% took the deal. Small classified newspaper ads in 5 different counties. Total cost of advertising per month, a little under $100.

                      We bought them by the hundreds.

                      At exactly the same time...in the same newspapers, we ran another classified ad. It said "Alpine air purifiers. Like new, $350. Call...."
                      And, when they called, I told them that we had like new purifiers for $350, and new ones for $499. We sold hundreds every month for a couple of years.

                      Supply and demand.

                      And no, for some reason, nobody ever mentioned that they saw we had two ads in the same paper. Weird.

                      In every economy, there are people who need to sell something...and will accept almost any offer. And there are people who will buy, if it's a good deal. Always.
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                    • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
                      Originally Posted by BigFrank View Post

                      Joe - being a 'loser' has nothing to do with how much money one has. To me, it has to do with a mind-set. Some folks think that Donald Trump is a god because he's uber-rich. To me - total loser. If folks knew how he got rich then wouldn't be so enamored. Then again, probably many of them would because they are total losers just like he is.
                      I agree about "The Donald". I recall Ken McCarthy talking along the same lines. I didn't get the whole story, I just recall him not being fond of the guy.


                      Originally Posted by BigFrank View Post

                      The fastest way to have a recession is for everyone to stop spending. You appear to be taking what sounds like a prudent course of action. There's nothing wrong with being cautious. It's when we allow fear to immobilize us that we get into trouble.

                      Cheers. - Frank
                      I agree with what you're saying, but it starts at the bottom. When customers stop buying or stop buying as much, I really would be a fool to stock up on too much inventory when I already can't sell everything I've got. I'd just be putting myself in debt and risk being stuck with a lot of stuff that could become devalued. Fortunately, I'm in a position where I can drop ship most items. I'm going to stick with that as much as possible.

                      By the way, I'm not saying that business is "bad", just that it's slow compared to last year. Also, much of the things that I've had on the shelf for awhile are odds and ends that I had to stock when my primary dealer installed a minimum order requirement. I used to be able to drop ship anything in any quantity, but not anymore. Oh well...
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      • Profile picture of the author bluecoyotemedia
        Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

        I certainly hope you're right about it not being as bad. The guy that predicted it would happen next and the guy that predicted 2016 both predicted an implosion of the housing market, but both said that it would be worse than the last.

        I was shocked to see that many prominent nations are already either in a recession or teetering on the edge of one. This guy's talking global recession - again. I certainly hope that he's wrong, but I'm going to remain a bit more conservative in some areas, just in case. :-)
        Joe

        never ever listen to anyone on an internet forum.. no one really knows what goes on.. because we normal people are always lied to and left in the dark..

        the only thing you can do is do your own diligence and piecemeal info and then look over history.. and finally use your common sense.. to come to your own conclusions.

        you have seen this before .. its just a matter of taking abirds eye view and use your own critical thinking cap.
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        • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
          Originally Posted by bluecoyotemedia View Post

          Joe

          never ever listen to anyone on an internet forum.. no one really knows what goes on.. because we normal people are always lied to and left in the dark..

          the only thing you can do is do your own diligence and piecemeal info and then look over history.. and finally use your common sense.. to come to your own conclusions.

          you have seen this before .. its just a matter of taking abirds eye view and use your own critical thinking cap.
          I didn't get the information from a forum. I'm not that naive. :-)

          It came from ABC News. It was just released yesterday. As I implied, I'm not going to live in fear, but after what I experienced before I plan to be very conservative moving forward. I won't stop working, but I'm going to refrain from buying large quantities of items if I can avoid it.
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  • Profile picture of the author travlinguy
    Another recession? Did I miss something?
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  • Profile picture of the author hardraysnight
    so im supposed to sell my shares and buy gold, or is it the other way around

    pity even i am not far enough away from the profits of doom
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  • Profile picture of the author celente
    for the last few decades, the market has been crashing every 7 - 8 years

    U DO THE MATH!!!

    #hashtag - GETREADY

    You guys do not have to be nostradamus to predict this one. :-)
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    • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
      I just always assume that there are sharks in the water.

      If we were always going to be in a recession...what would you do? How would you change your life?

      I run my business as though it will always be an uphill battle. The good stuff is just a pleasant surprise.
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      • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
        Is The U.S. Headed For Another Recession?

        I don't know if it will be a recession or hyper-inflation (probably one leading to the other) but yes, financial upheaval is coming... and it will be devastating.

        Joe Mobley
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        • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
          Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

          Is The U.S. Headed For Another Recession?

          I don't know if it will be a recession or hyper-inflation (probably one leading to the other) but yes, financial upheaval is coming... and it will be devastating.

          Joe Mobley
          Is there any time frame with your prediction of financial upheaval?

          Will it be as bad as times of 29 or 9?

          Another big, big money grab? Awww, we just had one.

          I'd love to know.

          Give us something to work with as far as a time frame is concerned.


          BTW...

          I think it could be 40-50 years before something like 29 or 9 happens again but...


          IMHO...

          ... it could happen a lot sooner if someone I know, gets control of the U.S. legislative and executive branches at the same time and has it for like 12 years in a row.

          That's not going to end well.
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          • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
            Thanks TL for the questions. Also, thanks for the civil tone. I know we do not agree politically and my responses are not intended to push any agenda.

            Remember that I am a simple man. I tend to look at issues as a card game.
            I try to see the cards on the table. Reading the writing on the wall, so to speak.
            I look at the cards I am holding.
            I try to play the best hand that I can.

            Perhaps this is a slight variation of Kay King's comment,

            I just try to keep my life planned well enough that I can survive for a good while at least no matter what the economy does.
            I am not a financial historian by any stretch of the imagination. I do like Prof. Niall Ferguson and his prospective on finances in history.

            https://encrypted.google.com/#q=Niall%20ferguson


            Professor Ferguson has created to excellent documentaries that are worth a look for those who are so inclined.

            The Ascent of Money, niall ferguson ascent of money - YouTube
            The War of the World, niall ferguson war of the world - YouTube

            Moving on...

            Time frame, I have no idea. I do think there are many issues that could trigger "a real big mess, real quick."

            Bad as 29 or 9? Again, any view on that would be subjective. I would think that anyone going without eating, being devastated by health issues or being homeless would think things are real bad.

            As far as politics go, I think it makes little difference which party holds political power. I see very few individuals with the leadership abilities necessary to restore the Republic.

            Either way, I think you are correct.

            Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

            That's not going to end well.
            Joe Mobley

            Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

            Is there any time frame with your prediction of financial upheaval?

            Will it be as bad as times of 29 or 9?

            Another big, big money grab? Awww, we just had one.

            I'd love to know.

            Give us something to work with as far as a time frame is concerned.


            BTW...

            I think it could be 40-50 years before something like 29 or 9 happens again but...


            IMHO...

            ... it could happen a lot sooner if someone I know, gets control of the U.S. legislative and executive branches at the same time and has it for like 12 years in a row.

            That's not going to end well.
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  • Profile picture of the author Jarrod
    We are ALWAYS either in a recession or headed for one. It's part of our our screwed up economy works.

    So yes, we are headed for another recession. I for one will not be participating.
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