Are the Cleveland Cavaliers the favorite to win it all?

by Alex Blades 30 replies
I think the Cavs are a favorite to win it all as is, of course I am a homer

Do you think the Cavs can win it all if they land Kevin Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves?
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  • Profile picture of the author GforceSage
    Cavs will get better throughout the season. Wiggins too raw to win it all in year one.

    1.) Spurs (still age defiant)
    2.) Thunder (might need one more something)
    3.) Clippers ( Added Hawes to front line)
    4.) Bulls ( Can Rose stay healthy?)
    5.) Cavs ( Team on the rise)

    Cavs go to the top if Kevin Love joins team. Wiggins will be great in a few years, Love is great now!
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    • Profile picture of the author Alex Blades
      Originally Posted by GforceSage View Post

      Cavs will get better throughout the season. Wiggins too raw to win it all in year one.

      1.) Spurs (still age defiant)
      2.) Thunder (might need one more something)
      3.) Clippers ( Added Hawes to front line)
      4.) Bulls ( Can Rose stay healthy?)
      5.) Cavs ( Team on the rise)

      Cavs go to the top if Kevin Love joins team. Wiggins will be great in a few years, Love is great now!
      I see you know your sports. Can't argue with your order, but I've seen Lebron take a team full of bench players to the Finals in 2007. I think if they get Love they will be the favorites, but without I still think they can come out of the East

      On a side note, if the Cavs met the Spurs in the Finals as is, do you think the Spurs could keep up with the speed and athleticism of Lebron, Kyrie, and Wiggins
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      • Profile picture of the author GforceSage
        Originally Posted by Alex Blades View Post

        I see you know your sports. Can't argue with your order, but I've seen Lebron take a team full of bench players to the Finals in 2007. I think if they get Love they will be the favorites, but without I still think they can come out of the East

        On a side note, if the Cavs met the Spurs in the Finals as is, do you think the Spurs could keep up with the speed and athleticism of Lebron, Kyrie, and Wiggins

        I thought the Spurs were done after the 2013 finals, but Popovich is the best there is at managing his players minutes and making adjustments. He gives his guys time off when they get sluggish so they are not run down when the playoffs start. I don't think the Spurs would let the Cavs run as much as they would like to. The Spurs would control the tempo of the game and make sure they are in a position to pull games out.

        We know Le Bron can carry his team, but it depends on how fast the rest of the Cavs can come together in order to get over the hump. Playoff basketball is much different than the free flow of the regular season and sometimes young players have to experience it for a season before they are able to adjust to it and excel at a championship level.
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  • Profile picture of the author David Maschke
    "Cleveland' and "win it all' have never been in the same sentence, even in an interrogative statement. I knew I felt a disturbance in the force, and I have found it.
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    • Profile picture of the author Alex Blades
      Originally Posted by David Maschke View Post

      "Cleveland' and "win it all' have never been in the same sentence, even in an interrogative statement. I knew I felt a disturbance in the force, and I have found it.
      I'm sure most Cavs fans have used it, especially when Lebron was her the first time
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      • Profile picture of the author TimPhelan
        Even if the Cavs get Love I don't see them being favorites. The Spurs are the best team and they do have young players who can keep up with the Cavs young players. The biggest advantage the Spurs have is their coaching.
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        • Profile picture of the author TimPhelan
          So, did anyone see the Paul George injury? Wow! That reminded me of the college player from last year. Gruesome. I hear George may be out for the year. Too bad for Indiana.
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  • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
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    Originally Posted by Alex Blades View Post

    I think the Cavs are a favorite to win it all as is, of course I am a homer
    Currently the bookmakers/oddsmakers seem to agree with you...

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/futures/

    NBA Championship Betting Odds Roundup | Odds Shark

    Sportsline Futures for the NBA Championship | VEGAS.com

    NBA Basketball Futures - NBA Playoffs Betting at Bovada Sportsbook

    Cheers

    -don
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  • Profile picture of the author Clyde Dennis
    Good question, but in a word... NO.

    The Spurs have to be right? I mean they're literally a Miami Heat miracle away from being repeat champions at this very moment. Five point lead with :27 seconds left and the ball... to win the season?

    Sure the Cav's got LeBron back but how did the one man team work out in June this year. Just sayin.

    That said, if they get KLove and everybody stays healthy they would definitely be in serious contention after playing together for a year.

    They'll make some noise and put some people on notice but I just can't see them as 'favorites' this coming season.

    Should be fun, can't wait!
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  • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
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    @ Tim

    Kurt is basically correct but it is the bettors that validate the preseason odds set by the bookmakers and that is why it is the bookmakers that are the ones that generally get a lot of the "credit" for setting the preseason favorites.

    With regards to setting preseason odds for teams to win it all the odds are set to minimize risk and those odds are then "validated" by the people that place the bets. The odds are set as "pretty" as they can be without crossing that "too risky" line to draw in as many bettors as possible to capture the maximum amount of juice.

    When a gambler places a bet on a team "winning it all" at say 4 to 1 it basically means that the bettor feels so strongly that Cleveland will win it all they are willing to risk their money on such short odds. In this case of course those bets are balanced by all of the money wagered on the other teams in the league.

    If you ask me I think the Cleveland to win it all bet is a sucker bet.

    Cheers

    -don
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    • Profile picture of the author discrat
      No way. Cleveland will not win the NBA Finals. if they couldnt win with Lebron over 7 straight seasons of meshing with same teammates ,what makes you think he can come in with a new set of faces and win it right off ?

      I know he is better than then but I still do not think he will do it first few years

      The Spurs will have an easier time this year than last year to win it all. I am not saying it is a sure bet, whatsoever. It will be tough.

      OKC will be out to win it all.

      But Just saying it will be easier for Spurs. Leonard, Greene, Splitter are young and going to be that much better.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kurt
      Originally Posted by ForumGuru View Post

      @ Tim

      Kurt is basically correct but it is the bettors that validate the preseason odds set by the bookmakers and that is why it is the bookmakers that are the ones that generally get a lot of the "credit" for setting the preseason favorites.

      With regards to setting preseason odds for teams to win it all the odds are set to minimize risk and those odds are then "validated" by the people that place the bets. The odds are set as "pretty" as they can be without crossing that "too risky" line to draw in as many bettors as possible to capture the maximum amount of juice.

      When a gambler places a bet on a team "winning it all" at say 4 to 1 it basically means that the bettor feels so strongly that Cleveland will win it all they are willing to risk their money on such short odds. In this case of course those bets are balanced by all of the money wagered on the other teams in the league.

      If you ask me I think the Cleveland to win it all bet is a sucker bet.

      Cheers

      -don
      Those that set the lines have one goal only, and that's to spread the wagers as evenly as possible.

      I was a bit off when I said they don't make predictions...They do try to predict how the public will bet. And they are very good at this. However, even when the opening odds are a bit off, they will be readjusted as needed. If people keep betting on the Cavs, the odds will drop on the Cavs and increase on the other teams to encourage more action on the other teams.

      The only "validation" the line makers need is by the sportsbooks' bean counters and ownership.

      And every futures bet is a sucker bet with an overall average of 80% payback, compared to 95% for single game bets using a point spread.

      Forgetting the odds, the Cavs may be a good bet now as they look like the only team still in the Kevin Love sweepstakes. While the West has more good teams, they will knock heads in the playoffs and with Paul George having a serious injury, it looks like the Bulls are the only team in the East that has any chance of stopping the Cavs from making the finals.
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      • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
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        Originally Posted by Kurt View Post

        Those that set the lines have one goal only, and that's to spread the wagers as evenly as possible.

        We agree on this! In doing so, generally speaking, they have to set the odds on the favorites short and the odds on the scrub teams long and then they adjust those odds accordingly.

        I was a bit off when I said they don't make predictions...They do try to predict how the public will bet. And they are very good at this.

        Yup, they sure are.

        However, even when the opening odds are a bit off, they will be readjusted as needed.

        Yeah, obviously the odds and lines are adjusted as needed. I have done quite well with my sports wagers over the past 32 years of my adult life and I also did quite well as kid. As a matter-of-fact I used to set the lines and run pools in the middle of the Indian Ocean back in the 80s. We were basically radio silent so we did not have access any of the real lines.

        If people keep betting on the Cavs, the odds will drop on the Cavs and increase on the other teams to encourage more action on the other teams.

        Lol...you don't need to explain this to me, I have had a good understanding of how the oddsmakers do things for decades.

        The only "validation" the line makers need is by the sportsbooks' bean counters and ownership.

        They don't need validation by folks other than their ownership --> but bettors putting the money down does the "odds validation" for them. As you have stated yourself if the bets stop coming in on the Cavs then the odds lengthen and another team will/could become the new favorite...this is exactly how the bettors "validate" the odds.

        And every futures bet is a sucker bet with an overall average of 80% payback, compared to 95% for single game bets using a point spread.

        Yeah, but some futures bets are larger sucker bets than others --> and the Cavs at 5/2 is one of them. The odds should be longer, IMHO.

        I really don't need a sports betting lecture as I have hit right at 85% of my NFL spread bets over the past 10 years. In the 2013/14 DISH NFL pickem (no spreads) I placed 77th in the nation out of roughly 75,000 players and unfortunately for me I got off to a terrible early season start.

        Forgetting the odds, the Cavs may be a good bet now as they look like the only team still in the Kevin Love sweepstakes.

        Again, IMO, at this time 5/2 is too short. C'mon man, 5/2?!?! Give me a break!

        While the West has more good teams, they will knock heads in the playoffs and with Paul George having a serious injury, it looks like the Bulls are the only team in the East that has any chance of stopping the Cavs from making the finals.

        Time will tell.
        Oh, and so you know, I have not made many wagers on the NBA since David Stern turned the league into pure sports entertainment. I prefer to bet on real sports where the officials do not make themselves such a large part of the game and the calls are a bit more legit. Sure it is all entertainment, but some sports and leagues do a better job than others when it comes to making the entertainment part not quite so obvious.

        Happy betting!

        Cheers

        -don
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        • Profile picture of the author Kurt
          Originally Posted by ForumGuru View Post

          Oh, and so you know, I have not made many wagers on the NBA since David Stern turned the league into pure sports entertainment. I prefer to bet on real sports where the officials do not make themselves such a large part of the game and the calls are a bit more legit. Sure it is all entertainment, but some sports and leagues do a better job than others when it comes to making the entertainment part not quite so obvious.

          Happy betting!

          Cheers

          -don


          Just so you know, I predicted over 85% winners for the NFL here in the Warrior Forum picking contest a few years ago. I rarely bet against the spread and instead would bet the money line because I don't believe NFL coaches coach to beat the spread, but rather to win the game.

          Last year I was 7 out of 8 in NBA playoff series predcitions and 3-0 this year, again posted and documented here on the WF. I find NBA playoff series easier to predict than single games, as any random factors such as ref calls tend to even out in a multi-game series. Plus, single game point spreads often come down to whether a few "desperation 3s" are made or not.

          I agree that 5/2 isn't good odds, but I don't pay much attention to futures bets other than for enteratainment purposes. I didn't make my point very well...I really meant that I would have the Cavs as the favorite, simply because IMO there's no real competition in the East, especially with George out.
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  • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
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    To continue a relatively interesting topic...

    The NBA has a clear strong correlation between preseason championship probability rank and playoff results, while the NHL is much weaker. Over the last four years, no NBA team ranked lower than fifth in preseason championship odds has made the finals.
    Clearly, the preseason favorites go further in the playoffs with a much higher frequency in the NBA than in any other sport.






    odds | Lower The Mound

    And then this from Pagel's "Last Team Standing" article...

    Despite all that unpredictability on and off the court, the oddsmakers in Vegas knew what was coming since nearly the first day of the regular season, or at least they saw the outlines of it. Vegas has listed the conference finalists as heavy favorites all along. The NBA is that top-heavy.
    With the NBA’s top teams hoarding the bulk of the odds, its bottom 50 percent has a near-zero championship probability before a single game has been played. The Gini coefficient of the NBA — a way to measure inequality within any data set, be it a league, country, etc. — is far higher (.748) than any of the other major leagues (the next closest is the MLB with .519).


    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...e-no-surprise/

    Cheers

    -don
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  • Profile picture of the author redstickstrategy
    I'm going for the cavs
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  • Profile picture of the author brucetracy
    I'd like them to win more games than they did last season that's for sure. They probably will!
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  • Profile picture of the author Vincentbre
    They need Love and Allen
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  • Profile picture of the author Floyd Fisher
    Kevin Love isn't the ingredient they need.....guys like Robinson will still chew them up.

    They need a defensive center.....or for their current centers to man up and play D.

    Like I said before, it's going to take two years for King James to beat this into shape, next year is going to be a nightmare for non Cavs fans.
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    • Profile picture of the author TimPhelan
      Originally Posted by Floyd Fisher View Post

      Kevin Love isn't the ingredient they need.....guys like Robinson will still chew them up.

      They need a defensive center.....or for their current centers to man up and play D.

      Like I said before, it's going to take two years for King James to beat this into shape, next year is going to be a nightmare for non Cavs fans.
      Nate?

      I think James will be downgraded to a prince within a couple years. His finals record is only 2 wins and 3 losses, and that record was a second/inch away from being 1-4. The Cavs can easily make it to the finals the next few years and can very easily lose several more finals. I can see Lebron's finals record being 2-6 or 2-7 before winning another and that ain't no King.
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      • Profile picture of the author Floyd Fisher
        Originally Posted by TimPhelan View Post

        Nate?

        I think James will be downgraded to a prince within a couple years. His finals record is only 2 wins and 3 losses, and that record was a second/inch away from being 1-4. The Cavs can easily make it to the finals the next few years and can very easily lose several more finals. I can see Lebron's finals record being 2-6 or 2-7 before winning another and that ain't no King.
        LOL....for some reason I was thinking of David...stupid me, the guy I'm referring to is Tim Duncan.

        As far as LeBron's finals record, I don't think people are going to put the knock on him for that....at least one of those finals was with an undermanned Cavs team, and that last one was simply Tim Duncan brandishing his championship rings as brass knuckles.

        Cleveland won't make it this year, but next year is going to be a year to watch. I hope the Cavs coach told those kids James will be playing with to bring hard hats to camp, they will need them.
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        • Profile picture of the author Alex Blades
          Look who was in Cleveland today, meeting with the Cavs GM and Coach... Shawn Marion.

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  • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
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    @ Kurt

    Got ya. Have a good day.

    -don
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  • Profile picture of the author Alex Blades
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    • Profile picture of the author TimPhelan
      Originally Posted by Alex Blades View Post

      OK, is that betting odds or real life odds?
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      • Profile picture of the author Alex Blades
        Originally Posted by TimPhelan View Post

        OK, is that betting odds or real life odds?
        Well I'm homer, so you have to take that in account, born and raised in Cleveland. A core of Lebron, Kyrie, and a possible Love, and young talent like Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. I think they can win atleast 3 of the next 5 years.

        As far as betting odds, that is just Vegas covering their ass. I remember Vegas had the Cavs at 90-1 odds before LBJ decided to come back, and they changed it to 4-1 because people were placing bets on the 90-1 odds. They didn't change because they knew Lebron was coming back, they changed it incase he did came back and had to pay all those people 90-1

        People get the wrong idea about Vegas, they think Vegas knows what is going to happen. The truth is, Vegas is just looking out for Vegas
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        • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
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          Originally Posted by Alex Blades View Post

          As far as betting odds, that is just Vegas covering their ass. I remember Vegas had the Cavs at 90-1 odds before LBJ decided to come back, and they changed it to 4-1 because people were placing bets on the 90-1 odds. They didn't change because they knew Lebron was coming back, they changed it incase he did came back and had to pay all those people 90-1
          Bovada had the Cavs at 33/1 on June 15th and the odds moved to 4/1 once he signed. They were at 7/2 on July 14th and they are now at 5/2. Oh yeah, let us not forget that Miami has skyrocketed from 3/1 on June 15th to 33/1 currently.

          It's the old LBJ 33/1 switcharoo...

          Remember when Manning signed with the Broncos? That moved the Broncs from 75/1 to 10/1 in a blink of an eye. Yeah, Peyton came close but no cigar but he and his boys did win 11 straight to close out that first season, and we all remember what happened to Manning in the Superbowl last season.

          Cheers

          -don
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          • Profile picture of the author Alex Blades
            We'll have to see how it plays out ForumGuru, a basketball championship is alot easier to win than a Superbowl
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