Hey Wariors - Lets have a discussion about the future.

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The future is coming and it's coming fast. I'm linking to this this video as hopefully a starting point in a discussion of business and the future. What are your thoughts?

#discussion #future #hey #wariors
  • Profile picture of the author Jan79
    Interesting video to watch, thx for sharing It will change the way live in ways we can't even imagine right now, but it doesn't have to be bad at all.... in fact I don't really enjoy working 8 hours a day... most of us don't. We should realize that in a world where robots do most of the work the 'money' or riches should be divided in another way then it has been done now (getting paid to do a job).
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    • Profile picture of the author NobleSavage
      ^^^^ agreed. There are some economists who talk about Universal Basic Income. It's actually a hot topic now, but not a new idea. Milton Freedman (a very conservative economist) proposed it a while back calling it a negative income tax.

      There will be a lot of ideological resistance to this i.e. if you don't work you are lazy and therefore deserve to starve to death.

      Usually, when I brink this up with people they immediately dismiss the idea as socialism or communism.

      Consumers drive the economy. If people don't have jobs they don't buy ---- and the economy collapses.
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      • Profile picture of the author Chris Grable
        ....
        Originally Posted by NobleSavage View Post

        if you don't work you are lazy...
        Well... aren't you?

        I guess you MIGHT not be lazy... but how about self centered and inconsiderate?

        But then again..... I would be willing to change "work" to "contribute" in the above sentence... but I would expect whomever the "payer" is would get to to decide how much "contribution" of which type is sufficient.

        Take one from Column One or one from Column Two or one from Column Three.

        vr
        chris
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        • Profile picture of the author lanfear63
          With all these wonderful things that will supposedly free us up, how come, even more we still generally work long hours and are sleep deprived more than ever It does not seem to make sense.

          The continued automation is great but it is always ongoing. Where we automate one process we then think of another one to automate. That is because it makes us more ambitious, so we are always striving to achieve new greater things, Before it is automated we will have jobs, then when it is we will be moving on to something else.

          You must assume then that when robots and software become sufficiently intelligent to modify themselves to apply to ANY new task we throw at them we will have reached that goal.

          The world could get automated enough to provide all our needs but not with the population being as high as it is. Reduce that to 500m - 1 billion max then we would have utopian cities and unlimited supplies of raw materials to work with or the machines to work with. Failing that, we would have to expand out to nearby planets and mine the colossal amount of materials out there for needs.

          The smaller population and the complete catering to our needs by machines etc may make us bored and listless, or would we move on to something else that does not include the need to work ethic!
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      • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
        Originally Posted by NobleSavage View Post

        There are some economists who talk about Universal Basic Income. It's actually a hot topic now, but not a new idea. Milton Freedman (a very conservative economist) proposed it a while back calling it a negative income tax.
        Perhaps a link is in order here.

        Originally Posted by NobleSavage View Post

        There will be a lot of ideological resistance to this i.e. if you don't work you are lazy and therefore deserve to starve to death.
        If you are lazy and won't provide for yourself, you do deserve to starve to death. You don't deserve free health care. You don't deserve $10 per month government cell phone. You don't deserve free housing. You don't deserve other people paying for your food. You don't deserve to vote. Etc.

        Originally Posted by NobleSavage View Post

        Usually, when I brink this up with people they immediately dismiss the idea as socialism or communism.
        That would be because it is.

        Originally Posted by NobleSavage View Post

        Consumers drive the economy. If people don't have jobs they don't buy ---- and the economy collapses.
        Noooo. If people don't have jobs they don't buy, the economy... and politics changes. The politicians in office want to promise jobs so they can keep theirs.

        Joe Mobley
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        • Profile picture of the author Kay King
          There will be a lot of ideological resistance to this i.e. if you don't work you are lazy and therefore deserve to starve to death.

          ...Consumers drive the economy. If people don't have jobs they don't buy ---- and the economy collapses.
          It's much more than that. If people don't work, goods are not created in the factories - food is not processed or delivered to the cities, customer service does not exist but that's OK because before long, there is nothing available to buy. Forget the economy - the society collapses.

          So in urban areas people would get money as a guarantee - but might not find food to buy.

          In rural areas, people would get guaranteed income but have resources to grow and process their own food, perhaps even create their own power (for when the power companies workers stop working).

          How long before urban dwellers move out to conquer those who are better off in the countryside?
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        • Profile picture of the author NobleSavage
          Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post

          Perhaps a link is in order here.
          Milton Freedman called it a Negative Income Tax (Same thing as UBI) He argued for it in his book Capitalism and Freedom and also wrote an entire essay on it http://0055d26.netsolhost.com/friedm...03.07.1967.pdf

          Friedrich Hayek who hated socialism and wrote a famous book The Rode to Serfdom stated in his biography, "I have always said that I am in favor of a minimum income for every person in the country"
          Guaranteed minimum income - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

          If you are lazy and won't provide for yourself, you do deserve to starve to death.
          What about wealthy people who inherit their wealth and never work? Do they deserve to starve to death?

          You don't deserve free health care.
          60% of bankruptcies in the US are cause by medical bills and half of those people have insurance. It's a huge drain on the economy. As an employer I don't want to pay for my employees health care. It's easier to start a business in Canada where they have single payer. 1) You are more likely to leave a cushy job and be entrepreneurial - which is good for the economy -- as you don't have to worry about your own health care. 2) As an employer you can count on a healthy work force.

          Not to mention we get completely screwed on the price of our health care in the US. Canada pays 1/2 as much as we do for health care and they have the same health outcomes. Google "medical tourism." People leave this country all the time to go have an operation in a country like India where it costs 1/10 as much.

          Check out these 21 graphs and tell me who is getting screwed: 21 graphs that show America's health-care prices are ludicrous - The Washington Post

          You don't deserve $10 per month government cell phone. You don't deserve free housing. You don't deserve other people paying for your food. You don't deserve to vote. Etc.
          Utah is saving money by giving people homes. "In 2005, Utah figured out that the annual cost of E.R. visits and jail stays for homeless people was about $16,670 per person, compared to $11,000 to provide each homeless person with an apartment and a social worker."
          Utah is Ending Homelessness by Giving People Homes | NationofChange

          I'm sure you solution would be to shoot them instead of putting them in jail and not admitting them to the ER when they are dying -- but that shit is never gonna fly politically. Pure libertarian philosophy is every bit as utopian and unworkable as Communism. We need practical solutions, not ideology.



          That would be because it is.
          You are confusing Socialism with a Welfare State. Under Socialism the government owns the means of production. A Welfare State redistributes income but depends on the private sector as the engine that pulls the car. Most conservatives get this confused because in the 80s Reagan began mixing the two terms.

          In reality, no country has every been pure socialistic or purely capitalistic. Except for failed examples all successful states have had a mixed economy. It makes sense to have government own natural monopolies like power generation. It makes sense to have the government invest in large scale infrastructure that private industry is not interested in - highways, roads, bridges, sewers, water treatment, and basic science (The internet was a DARPA project).

          Noooo. If people don't have jobs they don't buy, the economy... and politics changes. The politicians in office want to promise jobs so they can keep theirs.

          Joe Mobley
          The economy is an ecosystemic feed back loop between consumers and business. People can buy with out jobs if they are given money or live off of dividends -- which is taxed at 15% where work is taxed at 30%
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      • Profile picture of the author Cam Connor
        Originally Posted by NobleSavage View Post

        ^^^^ agreed. There are some economists who talk about Universal Basic Income. It's actually a hot topic now, but not a new idea. Milton Freedman (a very conservative economist) proposed it a while back calling it a negative income tax.

        There will be a lot of ideological resistance to this i.e. if you don't work you are lazy and therefore deserve to starve to death.

        Usually, when I brink this up with people they immediately dismiss the idea as socialism or communism.

        Consumers drive the economy. If people don't have jobs they don't buy ---- and the economy collapses.
        It may be getting "dismissed as Communism", because it's the very definition of Communism. lol
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        • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
          Let me say the video is very good. It is interesting and does a great job at relating current, previous and future technologies.

          Joe Mobley
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          • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
            Originally Posted by lanfear63 View Post

            With all these wonderful things that will supposedly free us up, how come, even more we still generally work long hours and are sleep deprived more than ever It does not seem to make sense.

            The continued automation is great but it is always ongoing. Where we automate one process we then think of another one to automate. That is because it makes us more ambitious, so we are always striving to achieve new greater things, Before it is automated we will have jobs, then when it is we will be moving on to something else.

            You must assume then that when robots and software become sufficiently intelligent to modify themselves to apply to ANY new task we throw at them we will have reached that goal.

            The world could get automated enough to provide all our needs but not with the population being as high as it is. Reduce that to 500m - 1 billion max then we would have utopian cities and unlimited supplies of raw materials to work with or the machines to work with. Failing that, we would have to expand out to nearby planets and mine the colossal amount of materials out there for needs.

            The smaller population and the complete catering to our needs by machines etc may make us bored and listless, or would we move on to something else that does not include the need to work ethic!
            Yep, agreed, humans can only take so much complexity until we spit the dummy!

            Some tech, is good, (like press a button, to enter your car) but other tech, where you have to learn another complex system in order to use it, is annoying!


            Home phones with LCD screens, so you can get a weather report is a good example. I would never go near it, since it is just stacking complexity on top of more complexity, for minimal or unnecessary benefits.


            As for the convenience or being able to lock or unlock your doors from your mobile phone, etc.

            Way to dodgy, l have heard of people who came home with their doors wide open, because their neighbor opened their remote controlled garage door.

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    • Profile picture of the author Cam Connor
      Originally Posted by Jan79 View Post

      Interesting video to watch, thx for sharing It will change the way live in ways we can't even imagine right now, but it doesn't have to be bad at all.... in fact I don't really enjoy working 8 hours a day... most of us don't. We should realize that in a world where robots do most of the work the 'money' or riches should be divided in another way then it has been done now (getting paid to do a job).
      I think what you're implying there is called "Communism", or, paying people for no reason. It'll be divided as it's always been divided... the most will be given to those who provide the most value (the notable exception being the bankers who manipulate the system to turn money into something that's easy to manipulate, and then manipulating it, but, as a general rule of thumb, the money will go to those who provide the most value...).

      If robots make it so that many are incapable or providing value, they'll be starved of resources, and the world's population will become smaller, more intelligent, and naturally more efficient. Can't wait.
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  • Profile picture of the author SEO Power
    I see everything remaining as they are for many more years to come. I prefer focusing on the present.
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  • Profile picture of the author Gh0zt
    SEO Power, what do you mean: remaining how they are now?

    So much has changed in the last 10 years, what makes you think anything will stay the same?!
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  • Profile picture of the author socialentry
    This video is an example of why social media should be banned.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kay King
      New series on TV next month - sounds interesting

      Utopia on FOX
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  • Profile picture of the author Cam Connor
    It'll be a LONG time before the decently intelligent people are replaced.
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  • Profile picture of the author Rick Rodd
    I may be late in the discussion, but I found this:

    By 2025, ‘sexbots will be commonplace’ – which is just fine, as we’ll all be unemployed and bored thanks to robots stealing our jobs | ExtremeTech

    They seem like the ones in A.I. wherein Jude Law is a gigolo bot. Would anyone want this kind of future?
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  • Profile picture of the author NobleSavage
    The mail is ripe for automation and the postal service employes 626,764 workers. That doesn't include UPS and FedEx.

    Walmart is the largest employer in the US -- 99% of those jobs can be automated.
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  • Profile picture of the author Rick Rodd
    Humans are never Horses... Robots would not replace us and our liberties; they should take our dignity by force from us. Let them work with what their intended purpose: menial and dangerous jobs. Nothing more.
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    • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
      Originally Posted by Rick Rodd View Post

      Humans are never Horses... Robots would not replace us and our liberties; they should take our dignity by force from us. Let them work with what their intended purpose: menial and dangerous jobs. Nothing more.
      And sex robots. It's my idea of "A greater tomorrow".
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  • Profile picture of the author David Maschke
    They never said if a bots will replace real people in politics, judges in courts, and CEO's in the corporate world. Will never happen.
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    • Profile picture of the author Amanda786
      Originally Posted by David Maschke View Post

      They never said if a bots will replace real people in politics, judges in courts, and CEO's in the corporate world. Will never happen.
      Despite of the fact that machines are taking over the world so quickly and we are becoming slaves to machines. This seems to be impossible that one day machines will take place of famous people in politics, judges in courts and CEO's.
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  • Profile picture of the author seasoned
    That first video was overly simplistic, and just DUMB! For one, the robots that paint cars CAN be taught, and ARE! That has been true for a LONG time, and I am talking several DECADES here! They would have ALREADY replaced many autoworkers jobs LONG ago, but the unions threatened strikes, and the car companies couldn't handle that. THAT is why japan was automated before the US. A robot working at 1/10th the speed is NOT necessarily more cost effective than an employee working at a given speed. A lower output means less business. THAT means more lost business. THAT can kill a company. That music is simplistic, and not artistic. It sounded like a bunch of random notes picked within a certain range. A REAL music writer might use that as a STARTING POINT! AND, the computers in the 60s etc... WERE general purpose. THAT is why they were called computers.

    OH YEAH, "smart" cars DO get slow and dumb! Even if it is just because a battery runs down, it gets a bug, is hacked, or has a breakdown. And they are FAR from as perfect as the video implies. Lawyers don't necessarily know what they are looking for, and a computer wouldn't either. They DO consider a pattern, and use computers to assist in finding it. They DO have computers identify some specified patterns. But searching for such things will likely always involve a person. And "bots" DON'T "teach themselves" to do things like trading. There may be "EXPERT SYSTEMS" that trade with a standard on a network that are programmed with criteria they can identify. They can then trade on that. If a given criteria is violated, they can scan other potential patterns, and trade according to one that matches. Expert system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia I don't know if that article mentions this, but expert systems work in a small area of expertise. So you may have one that trades, but can do nothing else.

    That said, the people that figure that their job won't change, or that computers won't limit work options are probably the same type that figured computers would be a FAD. One thing I point to is how one contract I was on changed a department with 21 workers to one with 4. They did less work, and got more business. It was a simple program, but laws made some work manual, and it will likely remain so for another decade or two, at the current rate. ALSO, there are no standard interfaces, so THAT will likely remain manual for a few decades. Politicians will NEVER vote themselves out of office. They will claim they are NEEDED for the very same reason that they really never were. But they come up with HIGHLY convoluted ideas that mean you need accountants and lawyers. YEAH, accounting programs do accounting well, FOR LAST YEARS NEEDS, but what about NOW?

    As for judges? Did we ever REALLY need them in jury trials, etc...? The idea of a jury is SUPPOSED to be to weigh things against a social standard within the law, and try to determine the veracity of what was stated by both sides. THAT is why the constitution says "OF PEERS". This requires things that a computer could NEVER be taught to consider. Oh SURE, you could do that NOW, but the need was MONTHS ago! And such modifications would be never ending. And how do you program such a device to determine the correct answer on its own? How do you have them debate to come up with a consensus that is not contrived? A lawyer and judge must kind of work things back and see a pattern. this pattern is almost NEVER obvious. If it were, the case could be used as a precedent, and the outcome is often a given. If there is a dispute, the judge, or opponent may ask for clarification on the pattern. How would a computer do all that. How could a computer determine what happened, and decide the truth?

    All of THAT said, MY job was ONE job! Before I started, it was given a title implying it was 2 jobs. NOW, it is over 6 jobs! MORE PEOPLE! MORE RESTRICTIONS! Things run SLOWER! What USED to be done in a day may now take MONTHS! I am not kidding! I was on a project one time that was delayed over a week because a 1 second operation had to be done by a person that already took off for the holiday! I COULD have done it CORRECTLY in a second, but didn't have rights. HE took over a week to do it INCORRECTLY! I wonder what the next guy thought when he saw the funny names on the table. I used what I was given, even if it WAS DUMB! So things will just move SLOWER!

    CEOs start/finance companies, etc... Saying a CEO will be replaced by a robot is like saying they will create a robot to eat all the food. The food is NOT to be consumed, it is to feed the people and animals! The CEO is NOT to be the owner of the company, but to be the one to finance and control it.

    BTW they HAVE sex robots! I saw a documentary once where a guy ordered a custom one that looked like his wife. They sat together nude, and you couldn't tell the difference! Apparently for SEX, it is similar Somehow, I think I would prefer the human though. .

    Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author socialentry
    They could maybe make a robot that could eat all the food to troll hippies on hunger strike.
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  • Profile picture of the author jameyson72
    As a major technology buff, this is pretty fascinating stuff. But I won't say it's not also pretty scary. I used to do physical labor in a plant that manufactured chassis for Ford F150s. I remember when they got their first machine-run assembly line. Everyone knew we would be out of a job and sure enough, a year later, about 300 of us were unemployed. That was why I began learning web development and marketing. Fortunately today I have a decent job in marketing, but who knows what the future holds. I may need to start learning how to create job-replacement programs like the guys in the video. Then I'd be guaranteed a job!
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