Chart About Recent Expansions In The American Economy:

42 replies
  • OFF TOPIC
  • |
Not sure if it's the most important chart you'll see this year but it sure is insightful IMHO.

The most important chart about the American economy you'll see this year - Vox
  • Profile picture of the author ThomM
    Signature

    Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
    Getting old ain't for sissy's
    As you are I was, as I am you will be
    You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9560309].message }}
    • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
      Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

      It's a matter of clear public record that...

      ...plenty of congressional millionaires on one side of the isle voted to increase their own taxes when the ACA was passed.

      For example, (Not trying to get political) ...

      ...someone like Mitt Romney will paying about $700K per year in taxes related to the ACA which would be .90% of most if not all income above $250K - I think.

      Also...

      Plenty of millionaires on one side of the isle were in favor of tax rates going back up to 39.5% and...

      ... most if not all of them on the other side of the isle were adamantly opposed to the top tax rates being raised along with the ACA in which their taxes would be raised also.

      IMHO, if one side of the isle with plenty of millionaires had the necessary votes they would raise the top rate higher to about 45% and close the kaleidoscope of loopholes for the wealthy and large corporations.

      BTW...

      I don't have a problem with millionaires entering congress but I do have a problem with people becoming millionaires or increasing their wealth abnormally because they are in congress.

      Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

      That, sadly, is not supported by any evidence. As the chart shows, and in more detail the charts ForumGuru posted, show that the rise in inequality coincides with massive tax cuts.

      So what you posted should have said is:

      Further reading:
      Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk among Us

      Capital in the Twenty-First Century
      The article on Zombie Economics is a must read for anyone interested in what works and just as importantly what has not worked for the American public's standard of living since WW2.
      Signature

      "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

      {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9564764].message }}
      • Profile picture of the author Kay King
        I don't have a problem with millionaires entering congress but I do have a problem with people becoming millionaires or increasing their wealth abnormally because they are in congress.
        Like Pelosi and Reid? Since you didn't want to be political - guess I won't either just as much It's amazing how many career pols start out with a middle class income and end up significantly wealthy after years of 'public service'.

        If there are laws that allow the rich to pay less, they would be fools not to pay less. If you want the rich to pay more - change the tax code. Not rocket science there.

        If you change and simplify the tax code, the loopholes and tens of thousands of pages of minute legal intricacies would be removed. Not even corporations would need cadres of lawyers to figure out their taxes. We wouldn't spend billions supporting a corrupt and inefficient IRS system if we FIXED our tax code.
        Signature
        Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
        ***
        One secret to happiness is to let every situation be
        what it is instead of what you think it should be.
        {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9564881].message }}
        • Profile picture of the author ThomM
          ...plenty of congressional millionaires on one side of the isle voted to increase their own taxes when the ACA was passed.
          Are you forgetting who controlled both houses at that time? So the true statement would be plenty of congressional millionaires on both sides of the isle.
          Signature

          Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
          Getting old ain't for sissy's
          As you are I was, as I am you will be
          You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

          {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9564913].message }}
          • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
            Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

            Are you forgetting who controlled both houses at that time? So the true statement would be plenty of congressional millionaires on both sides of the isle.
            I'm not sure what you're talking about but the fact of the matter is one side of the isle voted for the ACA and the other side did not - as in not one vote for it - in the house or the senate.

            As far as the recent top tax rate going up, one side fought against it for as long as the could - until they were afraid of their position being used against them - they then relented and allowed only the top rates to be raised.

            Before they relented, they said if the top rates were to be raised then all the rates should be raised and even tried to use it as a bargaining chip for cuts in social programs.

            You can call the above couple paragraphs just my opinion if you like, but anyone who's been following what's been happening and doesn't mind being objective knows who supported what.

            Those are the facts of the matter IMHO, which are pretty clear in the public records.
            Signature

            "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

            {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9565118].message }}
  • Profile picture of the author garyv
    Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

    Not sure if it's the most important chart you'll see this year but it sure is insightful IMHO.

    The most important chart about the American economy you'll see this year - Vox

    Really? You mean taxing the rich and giving it to the poor is actually causing rich people to hoard their money? Who'd a thunk it??
    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9560889].message }}
    • Profile picture of the author whateverpedia
      Originally Posted by garyv View Post

      Really? You mean taxing the rich and giving it to the poor is actually causing rich people to hoard their money? Who'd a thunk it??
      That, sadly, is not supported by any evidence. As the chart shows, and in more detail the charts ForumGuru posted, show that the rise in inequality coincides with massive tax cuts.

      So what you posted should have said is:

      Really? You mean giving tax cuts to the rich is actually causing rich people to hoard their money? Who'd a thunk it?
      Trickle-down economics was conclusively refuted by the experience of the postwar economic golden age. During this "Great Compression," massive reductions in inequality brought about by strong unions and progressive taxes coexisted with full employment and sustained economic growth.
      ~
      Whatever the evidence, an idea as convenient to the rich and powerful as trickle-down economics can't be kept down for long. As inequality grew in the 1980s, supply-siders and Chicago school economists promised that, sooner or later, everyone would benefit.
      ~
      The rising tide of wealth has conspicuously failed to lift all boats. Median household income has actually declined in the United States over the last decade and has been stagnant since the 1970s.
      ~
      Contrary to the cherished beliefs of most Americans, the United States has less social mobility than any other developed country.

      Five Zombie Economic Ideas That Refuse to Die
      Further reading:
      Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk among...Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk among...
      Capital in the Twenty-First CenturyCapital in the Twenty-First Century
      Signature
      Why do garden gnomes smell so bad?
      So that blind people can hate them as well.
      {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9563416].message }}
      • Profile picture of the author seasoned
        Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

        That, sadly, is not supported by any evidence. As the chart shows, and in more detail the charts ForumGuru posted, show that the rise in inequality coincides with massive tax cuts.
        OF COURSE! Because so many FREELOADERS game the system, and make the economy look worse, and it becomes reality. The government gives them money, GAMING THE SYSTEM, and it hurts what can be given to those TRULY in need. When they charge more taxes, DUE TO THE FREELOADERS, it leads to inflation, brings down the real value of investments and savings, and makes all poorer, but the VERY poor, having no investments or savings get a COLA which raises their rate, and makes things appear more level. In thelong run, the poor do NOT get any richer, but others get poorer, and that is WHY the idea of COLA was even created!!!!!

        Steve
        {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9563617].message }}
      • Profile picture of the author garyv
        Originally Posted by whateverpedia View Post

        That, sadly, is not supported by any evidence.
        Of course it's supported with the evidence. Welfare and social programs have been increasing exponentially since the 40's. Who do you think pays for that? The more money we throw at the poor, the more poor there seems to be... funny how that works huh?

        {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9565197].message }}
        • Profile picture of the author ThomM
          I'm not sure what you're talking about but the fact of the matter is one side of the isle voted for the ACA and the other side did not - as in not one vote for it - in the house or the senate.
          The fact of the matter is one side of the isle had control in both the congress and the house. A large enough control that the other side voting for or against anything didn't matter. Another fact according to your chart is during that same period the gap between rich and poor widened worse then any other time in recent history.
          Signature

          Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
          Getting old ain't for sissy's
          As you are I was, as I am you will be
          You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

          {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9565237].message }}
          • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
            Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

            The fact of the matter is one side of the isle had control in both the congress and the house. A large enough control that the other side voting for or against anything didn't matter.

            Another fact according to your chart is during that same period the gap between rich and poor widened worse then any other time in recent history.

            I simply pointed out that all the millionaires on one side of the isle - at least in the senate voted to increase their own taxes when they voted for the ACA...



            ... but you then gave me the impression that you believed the ACA was an bipartisan bill when this happened...

            ================

            I said this:

            ...plenty of congressional millionaires on one side of the isle voted to increase their own taxes when the ACA was passed.

            And then you said this in post #11 of this thread when you enclosed my above quote with your quote below:

            "Are you forgetting who controlled both houses at that time?

            So the true statement would be plenty of congressional millionaires on both sides of the isle."

            ================

            I''ll be kind and hope you got the ACA and the top tax rate increase issue mixed up because I sincerely hope you didn't think the ACA was passed with bi-partisan support.

            If so, that would be most troubling for someone as well versed in public policy as yourself.

            BTW...

            If you were trying to say (with your original comment in this thread)...

            ... that the reason or one of the main reasons for the downfall of the American standard of living and/or the negative growth in that chart is because there are too many millionaires in congress who are trying to protect their wealth - I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with you.

            Many folks want to blame the poor, immigrants, the global economy, millionaires in congress protecting their own wealth, free loaders etc. ...

            ... but not a set of counterproductive economic policies and attitudes and I believe I know the reason why.

            BTW...

            There are many economic charts that can easily pinpoint when the wheels really started to come off and we can easily tie the wheels coming off to a particular set of policies and attitudes coming into vogue.


            BTW...

            I think it's safe to say the great recession exacerbated the problems since 2007.
            Signature

            "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

            {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9565389].message }}
            • Profile picture of the author ThomM
              but you then gave me the impression that you believed the ACA was an bipartisan bill when this happened...
              You do have a habit of reading into things something that's not there. But I'll admit I did misunderstand your first statement about voting to raise taxes.
              By the way at the same time they supposedly voted to raise their taxes, they also decided to let their automatic pay raises go through. Kind of makes the raising their taxes a wash really.
              Signature

              Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
              Getting old ain't for sissy's
              As you are I was, as I am you will be
              You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

              {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9565441].message }}
              • Profile picture of the author HeySal
                Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                You do have a habit of reading into things something that's not there. But I'll admit I did misunderstand your first statement about voting to raise taxes.
                By the way at the same time they supposedly voted to raise their taxes, they also decided to let their automatic pay raises go through. Kind of makes the raising their taxes a wash really.
                Exactly. I've gotten used to reading bills and looking at others on the table at the same time because when fingers start pointing at "look what they passed/wouldn't pass, the reason is usually some ulterior motives stuck in there somewhere. Think: the bill to stop Citizens United, which was stuffed with language and aspects that would have taken down the first amendment with it. All I heard anywhere about it was "LOOK what THEY refused to pass." Then when I read it I was damned glad there was a "they" to not pass it.
                Signature

                Sal
                When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
                Beyond the Path

                {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9565881].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                  Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

                  Exactly. I've gotten used to reading bills and looking at others on the table at the same time because when fingers start pointing at "look what they passed/wouldn't pass, the reason is usually some ulterior motives stuck in there somewhere. Think: the bill to stop Citizens United, which was stuffed with language and aspects that would have taken down the first amendment with it. All I heard anywhere about it was "LOOK what THEY refused to pass." Then when I read it I was damned glad there was a "they" to not pass it.
                  YEAH, they pull several tricks to pass bills. Two of the BIGGEST are giving the bill a CUTESY name that is usually the OPPOSITE of what it does. The OTHER is taking an IMPORTANT, or apparently POPULAR bill, and putting phrases in it to achieve ANOTHER goal. It is often CONTRARY to the stated goal, or has NOTHING to do with it.

                  Like the ACA bill having language that STATED that it should provide funds to lower level employees to train them to be doctors and THEN, without any change in their level of work, or position, be paid as a DOCTOR! It was CONTRARY to the ACA stated goal. It ALSO said all should be in a UNION, CONTRARY to the acronym, etc... Or how about a welfare clause tucked into the agriculture subsidies? They recently had to FINALLY tear those things apart to vote separately on them.

                  Of course NATIONAL bills have often contained clauses to support some dumb STATE project.

                  Steve
                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9566675].message }}
              • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
                Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                You do have a habit of reading into things something that's not there.

                But I'll admit I did misunderstand your first statement about voting to raise taxes.

                By the way at the same time they supposedly voted to raise their taxes, they also decided to let their automatic pay raises go through.

                Kind of makes the raising their taxes a wash really.
                Not really since their salaries haven't been raised in years.

                It's been $174K since 2009 but in 2013 they got a raise from $174K to $174,900 - wow.

                House lawmakers vote to block their pay hike

                Members of Congress haven't had a raise in years


                - The ACA was passed in March 2010 and there was no pay increase.

                - The top tax rates were raised in January of 2013 and there was an congressional pay increase of $900 - hardly a wash.

                - I'm sure the passage of the ACA combined with the raising of the top tax rates put plenty of people in a hole and it wasn't a wash with their pay raise.

                - Of course, the more they make - outside of congress with their investments etc, the more those two new taxes will effect them - especially those with million dollar businesses and/or investment portfolios, they clearly took a hit and they voted for it.

                - And there is a new $60 billion per year going into the treasury from the raising of the top tax rates:
                Signature

                "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

                {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9566260].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                  Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

                  Not really since their salaries haven't been raised in years.

                  It's been $174K since 2009 but in 2013 they got a raise from $174K to $174,900 - wow.

                  House lawmakers vote to block their pay hike

                  Members of Congress haven't had a raise in years


                  - The ACA was passed in March 2010 and there was no pay increase.

                  - The top tax rates were raised in January of 2013 and there was an congressional pay increase of $900 - hardly a wash.

                  - I'm sure the passage of the ACA combined with the raising of the top tax rates put plenty of people in a hole and it wasn't a wash with their pay raise.

                  - Of course, the more they make - outside of congress with their investments etc, the more those two new taxes will effect them - especially those with million dollar investment portfolios, they clearly took a hit.

                  - And there is a new $60 billion per year going into the treasury from the raising of the top tax rates:
                  A lot of people would LOVE to get $174K for *********PART******** of their BASE pay for *******PART TIME******* "work" doing essentially NOTHING of merit! And get HUGE vacations where they are expected to do SO much less! AND, as part of their pay, they get a LOT of subsidies, including travel, security, and a pension. GIVE ME A BREAK! If not for the idea of getting your name raked through the mud and having to revisit it every 2-6 years, and have a small window of time to prepare, and having to get so many to help campaign, nearly everyone would be doing it, Of course, again, inflation comes into play! The more people that campaign for the position, the less likely any particular person will benefit, and the more trouble each campaign will be. There too though, the incumbent USUALLY wins.

                  The money is NOT supposed to be there for "welfare", raises, congress pay, etc.... It is supposed to be there for GENERAL WELFARE! The constitution actually STATES what that is!

                  HERE is the detail:

                  The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

                  To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;

                  To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;

                  To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;

                  To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

                  To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;

                  To establish Post Offices and post Roads;

                  To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;

                  To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;

                  To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;

                  To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

                  To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

                  To provide and maintain a Navy;

                  To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

                  To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

                  To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

                  To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;—And

                  To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.


                  MAN, the government has gone against SO much of that, and drifted SO far! It EVEN limits the army to 2 years!!!!!! It is clear that they expected the MILITIAS to take care of DOMESTIC battles! The NAVY was to take care of FOREIGN ONES, on the seas. For the air, of course, an exception must be made, since they had no idea of what was to come.

                  Steve
                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9566649].message }}
            • Profile picture of the author seasoned
              Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

              I simply pointed out that all the millionaires on one side of the isle - at least in the senate voted to increase their own taxes when they voted for the ACA...
              I thought you HATED the "rich"! You ALWAYS BAD MOUTH THEM! They get SO MANY perks, that it is about THIRTEEN TIMES their HUGE salary, and they don't even "work" most of the year. They can't even be bothered to read ONE bill, though they can have a STAFF to read it and summarize it for them!

              They did NOT vote to raise their taxes! They always vote to EXEMPT themselves, give themselves MORE perks, and RAISE their salary that has COLA attached! The COLA means if taxes increase 30%, their SALARY does TOO!

              ... but you then gave me the impression that you believed the ACA was an bipartisan bill when this happened...

              ================

              I said this:

              ...plenty of congressional millionaires on one side of the isle voted to increase their own taxes when the ACA was passed.

              And then you said this in post #11 of this thread when you enclosed my above quote with your quote below:

              "Are you forgetting who controlled both houses at that time?

              So the true statement would be plenty of congressional millionaires on both sides of the isle."

              ================

              I''ll be kind and hope you got the ACA and the top tax rate increase issue mixed up because I sincerely hope you didn't think the ACA was passed with bi-partisan support.
              BELIEVE ME! NOBODY on MY side is taking :credit for it! YOU can have it ALL!!!!!!! I just hope you get the BILL ALSO!

              Many folks want to blame the poor, immigrants, the global economy, millionaires in congress protecting their own wealth, free loaders etc. ...

              ... but not a set of counterproductive economic policies and attitudes and I believe I know the reason why.
              HEY, I have been blaming the "counterproductive economic policies and attitudes" for over 30 years!!!!!

              There are many economic charts that can easily pinpoint when the wheels really started to come off and we can easily tie the wheels coming off to a particular set of policies and attitudes coming into vogue.
              YEAH, I don't know WHY you can't see it!

              Steve
              {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9566212].message }}
        • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
          Originally Posted by garyv View Post

          Of course it's supported with the evidence. Welfare and social programs have been increasing exponentially since the 40's. Who do you think pays for that? The more money we throw at the poor, the more poor there seems to be... funny how that works huh?


          The growth of federal expenditures for medical (the biggest Item of the chart) will be arrested and scaled back according to the CBO because of the ACA - meaning it will not grow in the future as it has grown in the past.

          Isn't that a good thing Gary?
          Signature

          "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

          {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9569929].message }}
          • Profile picture of the author ThomM
            Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

            The growth of federal expenditures for medical (the biggest Item of the chart) will be arrested and scaled back according to the CBO because of the ACA - meaning it will not grow in the future as it has grown in the past.

            Isn't that a good thing Gary?
            From the CBO website.
            Federal spending for Social Security and the government's major health care programs--Medicare, Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act--would rise sharply, to a total of 14 percent of GDP by 2039, twice the 7 percent average seen over the past 40 years. That boost in spending is expected to occur because of the aging of the population, growth in per capita spending on health care, and an expansion of federal health care programs.
            Signature

            Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
            Getting old ain't for sissy's
            As you are I was, as I am you will be
            You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

            {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9571365].message }}
            • Profile picture of the author Kay King
              Congress last had a raise in 2009 - many working people have not had any raise or very little in raises since 2007.

              I think it's good members of Congress have to do without fancy digs in D.C. or budget carefully to get by- their constituents are doing the same.

              Meanwhile, we are approaching 18 trillion in debt. The debt per taxpayer has gone up by $1600 in less than 3 months.

              If things are getting better - they need to get better faster.
              Signature
              Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
              ***
              One secret to happiness is to let every situation be
              what it is instead of what you think it should be.
              {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9571552].message }}
            • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
              Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

              From the CBO website.



              Quote:
              Federal spending for Social Security and the government’s major health care programs—Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges created under the Affordable Care Act—would rise sharply, to a total of 14 percent of GDP by 2039, twice the 7 percent average seen over the past 40 years. That boost in spending is expected to occur because of the aging of the population, growth in per capital spending on health care, and an expansion of federal health care programs.

              I'd love to see your link to the page on the CBO website with your quote.

              And the quote is talking about the actual spending but says nothing about income to the program that will offset some of those costs.


              BTW...

              There was a big hullaballu a couple years ago over this same misunderstanding of this subject with the hopes of the opponents of the ACA being dashed by reality.


              According to the CBO:

              The ACA will not be a financial boondoggle for the federal gov and as a matter of fact it will do one of it's main functions which is to slow and the growth of federal expenditures related to health care.

              Meanwhile, I found this at the link below...

              http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45231

              Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014:

              From the CBO Report:

              "CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have updated their estimates of the budgetary effects of the provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that relate to health insurance coverage. The new estimates, which are included in CBO’s latest baseline projections, reflect CBO’s most recent economic forecast, account for administrative actions taken and regulations issued through March 2014, and incorporate new data and various modeling updates.

              Relative to their previous projections made in February 2014, CBO and JCT now estimate that the ACA’s coverage provisions...


              ... will result in lower net costs to the federal government:


              The agencies currently project a net cost of $36 billion for 2014, $5 billion less than the previous projection for the year; and $1,383 billion for the 2015–2024 period, $104 billion less than the previous projections (see the figure below).


              The CBO has gone from projecting the ACA will cost a little bit like 10 billion per year for the federal government, to a small savings like 10-20 billion per year over the first 10-12 years of the program.

              This recent chart from the CBO and the link below, looks like the growth in federal spending for medical stuff will be arrested and then will level off and decrease a little bit...



              And then after the first 10-12 years, the program will save the feds at least 90 billion per year compared to what its spending now.

              Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014 | Congressional Budget Office

              So it looks like...

              According to the CBO:

              The ACA will not be a financial boondoggle for the federal gov and as a matter of fact it will do one of it's main functions which is to slow and the growth of federal expenditures related to health care as I said when I asked Gary a question.


              In any event I demolished your proclamation/inference that the ACA is not helpful to the effort to contain federal medical expenditures.

              Please don't bring it up again because we've already been over this before. I'm going to cut an save the posting so that I can re-post it the next time and save myself 5-10 minutes of research.
              Signature

              "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

              {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572533].message }}
              • Profile picture of the author Kay King
                I'd love to see your link to the page on the CBO website with your quote.
                Here ya go:

                http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...tlook_7-29.pdf

                Page 9 - first bullet point on the left

                It also says

                The gap between federal spending and revenues would widen after 2015 under the assumptions of the extended baseline, CBO projects.

                By 2039, the deficit would equal 6½ percent of GDP, larger than in any year between 1947 and 2008, and federal debt held by the public would reach 106 percent of GDP, more than in any year except 1946—even without factoring in the economic effects of growing debt.
                Signature
                Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
                ***
                One secret to happiness is to let every situation be
                what it is instead of what you think it should be.
                {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572563].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
                  Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

                  Here ya go:

                  http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fil...tlook_7-29.pdf

                  Page 9 - first bullet point on the left

                  It also says

                  You're taking about total federal budget outlook and I was talking about medical spending.

                  There is a difference.
                  Signature

                  "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572683].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author eeleekowo
                  Banned
                  [DELETED]
                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9574417].message }}
                  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
                    Steve - My point is the excuses won't work every single year. We have some deadlines coming up in the next few months and the govt has had another full year to get the process working.

                    We can - and do - argue this law every few months. IN the end - it will provide health care or it won't. It will be affordable or it won't.

                    With three deadlines for ACA coming in the next 4 months - it's going to be in the news again.

                    As of this month (Oct) insurers are not allowed to renew any insurance plans that are not ACA compliant.

                    t the complaints about dropped policies may start again in the fall of 2014. According to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, plans renewed after Oct. 1, 2014 have to be one of the plans originally "grandfathered in" back in 2010, or they must meet Obamacare coverage standards.
                    In November, the new enrollment begins. The date was changed and the period put off for a month. Conveniently now, it doesn't begin until after the mid term election. Excuse is it "gives insurers more time to evaluate" but reality is if premiums rise sharply we won't know it before the election.

                    January, 2015 - employer mandate kicks in. Can't put it off any longer that I can see. It's been postponed and postponed. Companies have already been reducing benefits and hiring PT instead of FT to prepare for this law. The company I recently left reduced health benefits two years in a row and said it was preparing for ACA implementation.
                    Signature
                    Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
                    ***
                    One secret to happiness is to let every situation be
                    what it is instead of what you think it should be.
                    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9574494].message }}
                    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                      Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

                      Steve - My point is the excuses won't work every single year. We have some deadlines coming up in the next few months and the govt has had another full year to get the process working.

                      We can - and do - argue this law every few months. IN the end - it will provide health care or it won't. It will be affordable or it won't.
                      YEAH, I am STILL amazed at the HUGE free pass they have been given. Just today, a libertarian posted a video about the huge free pass and how people that in 2008 spoke against certain issues are now SILENT when they are even WORSE! I WOULD post it here, but it may be deemed TOO political.

                      With three deadlines for ACA coming in the next 4 months - it's going to be in the news again.
                      Was it ever NOT?

                      As of this month (Oct) insurers are not allowed to renew any insurance plans that are not ACA compliant.
                      NOPE! It was as of the beginning of this year, or late last year! In September, mine had to be renewed, and I Couldn't!

                      In November, the new enrollment begins. The date was changed and the period put off for a month. Conveniently now, it doesn't begin until after the mid term election. Excuse is it "gives insurers more time to evaluate" but reality is if premiums rise sharply we won't know it before the election.
                      Obama recently PROMISED to do something ELSE that may get HARDER after the election! He has ALSO said he won't do it until AFTER the election! GEEEE..... Wonder why! YEAH, it is NOTHING NEW!

                      January, 2015 - employer mandate kicks in. Can't put it off any longer that I can see. It's been postponed and postponed. Companies have already been reducing benefits and hiring PT instead of FT to prepare for this law. The company I recently left reduced health benefits two years in a row and said it was preparing for ACA implementation.
                      Well, THAT is one reason why people's jobs are getting cut back! I am surprised they admitted the reason!

                      Steve
                      {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9574532].message }}
              • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                Instead of playing with the guess work of the CBO here's an actual analysis of how the ACA effects people and business.
                The Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Small Business | NCPA
                The CBO even says it's just an estimate, which you try to turn into a fact.
                My link was from 2013.
                Presentation on Federal Health Care Spending | Congressional Budget Office
                So if you're saying they where wrong then, what's to say they're not wrong now?
                Signature

                Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
                Getting old ain't for sissy's
                As you are I was, as I am you will be
                You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

                {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572570].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author Kay King
                  That is a problem with quoting CBO to bolster an argument on either side of any financial issue.

                  The CBO can only project an outcome using the economic information is it
                  GIVEN. Change the numbers - you change the outcome. That's why both sides of every issue quote only portions of CBO comments and documents...only the parts that agree with them.

                  The CBO doesn't give a "prediction" but a projection that's subject to change.
                  Signature
                  Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
                  ***
                  One secret to happiness is to let every situation be
                  what it is instead of what you think it should be.
                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572665].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
                  Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                  Instead of playing with the guess work of the CBO here's an actual analysis of how the ACA effects people and business.
                  The Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Small Business | NCPA


                  The CBO even says it's just an estimate, which you try to turn into a fact.
                  My link was from 2013.

                  Presentation on Federal Health Care Spending | Congressional Budget Office

                  So if you're saying they where wrong then, what's to say they're not wrong now?
                  I'm saying the quote didn't include income from the program that would be counted against the expenses.

                  But when the income is counted, the picture is quite different.

                  And projections can change based on new information and circumstances but the CBO is clear that if all stats stay basically the same the ACA will help curb medical expenditures of the federal government.

                  And where is your link pointing to the CBO at the CBO saying the ACA will do more harm than good to American businesses as you recently alluded that it would do?

                  You can't say the CBO says the ACA will cost American jobs as some of your friends tried to say I think it was last summer. As a matter of fact the CBO prejects the ACA will help create jobs.

                  BTW... Here's the CBO director on the spot on whether the ACA will cost jobs.

                  Signature

                  "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled. -- Mark Twain

                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572686].message }}
                  • Profile picture of the author Kay King
                    It start all over again soon - let's hope this year is smoother.

                    What Has The Affordable Care Act Accomplished A Year Later? « CBS Pittsburgh

                    There will not be acceptable excuses if the websites don't work - if the income isn't being verified - if the subsidies are incorrect. This year should work as last year was supposed to.

                    Signature
                    Saving one dog will not change the world - but the world changes forever for that one dog
                    ***
                    One secret to happiness is to let every situation be
                    what it is instead of what you think it should be.
                    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572705].message }}
                    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                      Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

                      It start all over again soon - let's hope this year is smoother.

                      What Has The Affordable Care Act Accomplished A Year Later? « CBS Pittsburgh

                      There will not be acceptable excuses if the websites don't work - if the income isn't being verified - if the subsidies are incorrect. This year should work as last year was supposed to.

                      DIDN'T you hear? Several STATE websites were SO BAD and SO expensive, that they GAVE UP! And those people must use the federal site. Last I heard, the federal website STILL didn't work! OH WELL, it is ****ILLEGAL**** for the federal website to work as expected anyway! There are TWO expectations!

                      1. The intentionally written law that states the federal subsidies are NOT VALID on the federal site. So it is illegal to do otherwise. All people would pay the same regardless of income.
                      2. The ADVERTISED subsidies that were promised and a KEY PART of the WHOLE IDEA are to be automatically calculated and provided! They are not allowed by #1, and apparently there was never a proper provision for them. But there are TWO systems for the poorer people and some others. 1. Medicare/Medicaid. No subsidy needed apparently. 2. Insurance, which kind of collapses without the subsidy.

                      BTW you ACTUALLY think an excuse on 2013 was acceptable for that level? I would have DEMANDED that the company hit that first milestone no later than like 1/1/2011! The *******FIRST******** milestone would better than what they had 10/1/2013! It was LUDICROUS! It is UNREAL! If a programmer did that to ANYONE HERE, they would be laughed at and NOT GET A PENNY!

                      Oh SURE, you don't expect it to operate flawlessly, first time, but it had like NO backend! It was being RIDICULED, and this ADMIN has been lucky to get away with SO much without even a MENTION! You KNOW this was ********BAAAAAAAD********!

                      BTW RYAN was RIGHT when he yelled his famous statement! And HE merely claimed it would be allowed. It is actually being ENCOURAGED!

                      Steve
                      {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9573275].message }}
                  • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                    Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

                    I'm saying the quote didn't include income from the program that would be counted against the expenses.

                    But when the income is counted, the picture is quite different.

                    And projections can change based on new information and circumstances but the CBO is clear that if all stats stay basically the same the ACA will help curb medical expenditures of the federal government.

                    And where is your link pointing to the CBO at the CBO saying the ACA will do more harm than good to American businesses as you recently alluded that it would do?

                    You can't say the CBO says the ACA will cost American jobs as some of your friends tried to say I think it was last summer. As a matter of fact the CBO prejects the ACA will help create jobs.

                    BTW... Here's the CBO director on the spot on whether the ACA will cost jobs.

                    CBO Director: ACA will *reduce* unemployment - YouTube
                    OOOPS! You didn't listen! He is NOT the director! He is a minority member of the house that happens to be on the hook FOR THIS PERIOD for how it is PERCEIVED! He speaks THIRD PERSON about the director who is: Douglas Elmendorf! Douglas Elmendorf - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                    TECHNICALLY, the CBO director can NOT be a representative or senator. It would be a conflict of interest.

                    OF COURSE the ACA will create jobs! There are all the people to STEAL portions of the ACA funds on the pretense of working. And the DEATH P....(ahem) "IPAB", which STILL hasn't met apparently. And all the people that will destroy personal privacy in the US, called IRS agents and "navigators"! And ANOTHER type of job that is like a pseudo navigator, that is just as bad. YEP! It will create THOUSANDS of jobs. ALSO, it will create THOUSANDS of jobs by forcing THOUSANDS of people to have their work weeks cut. That has ALREADY started happening! The last group of jobs, and the navigators, tend to be lower wage jobs.

                    But it will also COST a lot of jobs.

                    Steve
                    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9573303].message }}
              • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                The CBO originally did NOT take into account the 5 years of savings! They *********CLAIMED******** that their estimate was for 10 years out, but it included FIVE YEARS of savings! That ONE little fact meant that the REAL costs, based on their estimate, were over TWICE what their estimate claimed! They ALSO, did NOT count the 500B cut to medicare, or the increase in services!

                So even the FIRST estimate, that spoke of the modest decrease, pointed to a MASSIVE INCREASE!

                And did they take into account that so many would be FORCED to switch to medicare? Did they take into account the CANCELLED PLANS? Did they take into account the reduction of resources?

                They can't plan out something like orange yields for the following year, and CERTAINLY not for the following decade, so HOW are they to take into account this MASSIVE change in the system?

                I actually read that stupid bill. And it is clear to me it won't work. They have done a number of things that will only make my prediction WORSE! And you can believe the party line if you want to. You can NOT tax something without the cost going up! You can NOT wipe out ALL risk data and expect people to bet low! You can NOT cover more people or take on more risk without costs going up!

                The US government forced companies to tax, and take on more people and expose themselves to higher risk, and have made actuarial data nearly worthless. OF COURSE the insurance companies are going to guess high, ESPECIALLY with the narrow variation allowed, and the narrow changes. And apparently hospitals aren't happy either. HEY, I have ALREADY had to use my insurance! Just my DRUG COSTS(AFTER INSURANCE) have increased $396/year. My test costs look like they have increased by about $2000/year, for the cheapest test. And the PREMIUM has gone up ALSO! That is not some estimate, it is based on the last cost I paid.

                At the pharmacy, they said that many insurance companies, or was it all, are now charging like a tax on extended release drugs! So I COULD cut my costs by $120/year by paying for a doctor, getting a new prescription, and taking the other type. SO, for about $30-$40, time off work, and an increased chance of death, I could save $80-$90/year! WHAT A DEAL! Some care, huh? Maybe it was mandated by some government idiot thinking that sustained release was some LUXURY!


                Steve
                {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9572725].message }}
                • Profile picture of the author ThomM
                  Steve the bottom line with the CBO reports is that they are simply estimates (in their words) or guesses. All they take into account is what they are given. When they are presented with something like all businesses with 50 full time employees will provide health insurance to their employees, they use just that information for their estimate. They don't take into account how many businesses will stop expanding at 49 full time employees because the numbers don't favor going to 50 or the businesses who will cut their employees hours to part time to avoid the extra expense. How many businesses weren't started because of the law? They have no way of knowing those things so they can't take them into account. The best they can do is estimate, or guess.
                  Signature

                  Life: Nature's way of keeping meat fresh
                  Getting old ain't for sissy's
                  As you are I was, as I am you will be
                  You can't fix stupid, but you can always out smart it.

                  {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9573099].message }}
                  • Profile picture of the author seasoned
                    Originally Posted by ThomM View Post

                    Steve the bottom line with the CBO reports is that they are simply estimates (in their words) or guesses. All they take into account is what they are given. When they are presented with something like all businesses with 50 full time employees will provide health insurance to their employees, they use just that information for their estimate. They don't take into account how many businesses will stop expanding at 49 full time employees because the numbers don't favor going to 50 or the businesses who will cut their employees hours to part time to avoid the extra expense. How many businesses weren't started because of the law? They have no way of knowing those things so they can't take them into account. The best they can do is estimate, or guess.
                    PARTIALLY what I meant. They CAN get a LOT closer by checking P&Ls, checking state insurance commissioners, and READING THE BILLS, but they obviously don't even do THAT!

                    And they COULD tell the truth, like having, in THIRTY POINT BOLD RED TYPE ACROSS THE TOP..... "NOTE: THIS INCLUDES INCOME FROM TAXES, AND TRANSFERS, IMPOSSED X YEARS PRIOR TO THE COVERAGE KICKING IN!"

                    ALSO, there WERE businesses that obviously had part time employees(those there for less than 40 hours per week)! They COULD have taken into account the part time employees being "cut" to part time! Such employees would have had their workday reduced by TEN HOURS A WEEK! WHY? Because full time was REDEFINED!!!!!!!!!! The 40 became 30! SO, less than 40 became less than 30!

                    Steve
                    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9573238].message }}
          • Profile picture of the author seasoned
            Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

            The growth of federal expenditures for medical (the biggest Item of the chart) will be arrested and scaled back according to the CBO because of the ACA - meaning it will not grow in the future as it has grown in the past.

            Isn't that a good thing Gary?
            It ISN'T being arrested or scaled back. Last I heard, the CBO also said that! And it WILL grow, and IS growing.

            STILL, there IS an EASY way to scale it back! Stop producing doctors, close the hospitals, and just don't pay. To some degree, that IS happening. How much will it happen? WHO KNOWS!? STILL, it is like buying a car. You COULD buy a tiny car with a 3 cylinder engine and NO extras! Will that REALLY replace a truck though?

            You cn NOT look at a simple chart like this and see the TRUTH! I have been paying THOUSANDS of dollars for tests every year. They are EXPENSIVE! About 35 years ago, they didn't even exist! Do you realize that the first real use of an MRI machine was on 1982?

            If we had hospitals with the level of care of the civil war, health care would cost a TINY fraction of what it does today. You get better care at a CVS clinic!

            Steve
            {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9571609].message }}
          • Profile picture of the author garyv
            Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

            The growth of federal expenditures for medical (the biggest Item of the chart) will be arrested and scaled back according to the CBO because of the ACA - meaning it will not grow in the future as it has grown in the past.

            Isn't that a good thing Gary?
            That is a joke right? The ACA will cause that part of the chart to grow exponentially. How could you possibly think that it won't? That's a whole new government program being added on to that part of the chart.
            {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9573479].message }}
            • Profile picture of the author seasoned
              Originally Posted by garyv View Post

              That is a joke right? The ACA will cause that part of the chart to grow exponentially. How could you possibly think that it won't? That's a whole new government program being added on to that part of the chart.
              Don't forget all the JOBS he said it would add! I Stated how it WILL add jobs!!!!!! NAVIGATORS, IRS AGENTS, IPAB, and all the offices to SUPPORT them! It will cost BILLIONS AT LEAST, just for the REALESTATE! ALSO, there have to be reviewers, medical auditors, etc... If not, the system could be scammed, and the IRS and IPAB would be MEANINGLESS!

              And for navigators, there will be THOUSANDS of them. The jobs range from like minimum wage to likely as much as $200K. But he thinks that will SAVE money! And I didn't even add the medicare, higher taxes, higher test costs, higher premiums, and "co pays" yet!

              GEE, I don't care WHO offers a great program. If I were better off, I would admit it. I'm NOT better off! I lost my insurance, and the costs went up. LUCKILY I managed to keep my doctors, hospital, etc... Some -people HAVEN'T though.

              Steve
              {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9573565].message }}
  • Profile picture of the author seasoned
    This chart is STUPID!!!!!!!!

    There were some large families that ran into a lot of luck, and had a LOT of money. They nearly took over. The government tried to bring them down, and apparently did. Around the 1920s, there was a huge boom and many got rich. In the early 1930s, many rich became poor, and there was a huge depression. In the40s-60s, we had low inflation and a world war. Many women started working that thought they likely never would. The start of the family breakdown started. In the 60s, a group of people decided that THEY, armed with a millennia old idea that NEVER worked, could supposedly create a utopia. They are still trying to build it even TODAY!

    The 70s was a turning point! They had COMPUTERS! They started thinking more globally. They had INFLATION! SURE, the IBM PC came out in like the 1980s. SURE Apple and Microsoft started in 1975. DEC started earlier, and IBM started EARLIER! And THEY weren't the only ones. Remember when 1/1/2000 came? SOME of you got email dated 12/31/1969! Ever wonder why? ****NOW**** you KNOW! That was effectively UNIX's BIRTHDAY! 1/1/1970 was the beginning of the EPOCH!!!!!

    And you can NOT use numbers after 2007! Touse THEM, you would have to compare the top TWENTY percent to the bottom 30%! What about the other 50%? For purposes of this comparison, they do NOT exist! THEY get money from the GOVERNMENT and/or work at jobs adults were NEVER meant to work at.

    And OF COURSE the top 20% make more than the bottom 30%.

    Steve
    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9560963].message }}
  • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
    Banned
    Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

    Not sure if it's the most important chart you'll see this year but it sure is insightful IMHO.
    That chart is spit in the ocean compared to this detailed mega-report by Professor Gordon of the University of Iowa.

    Growing Apart - A Political History of American Inequality

    The Table of Contents is here:

    http://scalar.usc.edu/works/growing-...le-of-contents

    The Introduction:

    Introduction

    The Chartbook alone is massive:

    http://scalar.usc.edu/works/growing-...lity/chartbook

    It's not a short report by any means and it refers to some of Thomas Piketty's work right off the bat. The first animated graph that you see in the report's Introduction section is "interactive" and probably one of the most comprehensive single graphs that has been constructed on inequality. In-fact all six of those animated interactive charts and graphs in the intro section are interesting.

    Cheers

    -don
    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9563195].message }}
  • Profile picture of the author ForumGuru
    Banned
    This Colin Gordon blog will provide some more interesting stuff for the folks that want to dive deeply into the numbers... As if Growing Apart - A Political History of American Inequality was not deep enough.

    The Telltale Chart | visualizing American economics and economic history

    Cheers

    -don
    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9563358].message }}
  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    Most bills contain articles in them that are unrelated or counterproductive. That's why they take actions and talk about bills and negotiate before they hit the floor. Sometimes those articles get stricken, sometimes they don't so the other side just votes the whole thing down. It's not anything out of the normal. Once one gets officially tossed out, if it's something people want to pursue, someone else will just write a cleaner copy without so much bs going on in it and that one will usually pass. If it was just irrelevant legislation to sneak something kewl for our reps themselves with no real impact on anything else or a negative one, most of the time it just won't be brought back in any form.
    Signature

    Sal
    When the Roads and Paths end, learn to guide yourself through the wilderness
    Beyond the Path

    {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9566997].message }}
    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
      Originally Posted by HeySal View Post

      Most bills contain articles in them that are unrelated or counterproductive. That's why they take actions and talk about bills and negotiate before they hit the floor. Sometimes those articles get stricken, sometimes they don't so the other side just votes the whole thing down. It's not anything out of the normal. Once one gets officially tossed out, if it's something people want to pursue, someone else will just write a cleaner copy without so much bs going on in it and that one will usually pass. If it was just irrelevant legislation to sneak something kewl for our reps themselves with no real impact on anything else or a negative one, most of the time it just won't be brought back in any form.
      YEAH, I know it is normal. They even spoke about it when I was like in junior high. You make it sound SOOOOOO easy. *******IT'S NOT*******! If ANYTHING in the bill is changed, they are supposed to REVOTE! It needs to start ALL OVER! The ACA passed without that ONLY because the majority of the house wanted it done SO BAD that they were able to agree on a "legal loophole" monster called "DEEM AS PASSED"! Remember THAT? THAT was because the SENATE changed it before THEY voted, so the house had to vote AGAIN! They could NOT change it because, even if they all agreed on the first try, the SENATE would then have to REVOTE! So they deemed it as passed and passed ANOTHER bill to put some changes in retroactively. Even the "deem as passed" took a while. It took like a day to get this done. Had they done it the proper way, it could have taken WEEKS and called even MORE attention onto the Scott Brown fiasco!

      Steve
      {{ DiscussionBoard.errors[9567442].message }}

Trending Topics