How Do You Estimate The Value of an Adsense Click?

First, the keyword tool is for Adwords advertisers using the search network, not the content network, which is what you are as a publisher. They are two very different animals and you can't compare the costs per click.

Second, the cost of the click is an estimate should the advertiser want to get in the top positions. Smart advertisers can easily beat this estimate by half. Plus, not all want to be in the top three or pay above a certain value. But since most advertisers I've seen are not that smart, there may be enough out there willing to bid $1.25 for that particular keyword.

You have to understand the Adwords auction. Advertisers place a maximum bid they are willing to pay for a click. You may bid $1 but actually pay only 80 cents.

Even if your page displayed only wireless laptop mouse ads, the top ad may be bidding say $1, the second one maybe 80 cents, the third 70 and the fourth 65. Even if someone clicks on the first ad, it may generate only 81 cents for Google since the advertiser pays one cent over the next bidder. Note that this is how it works for search, I can only assume the same for content.

Third, assuming your page can trigger ads for that keyword, there must be advertisers advertising on the content network using that keyword. They may also be paying per click or per thousand impressions (CPM). Many advertisers will also target only certain sites and not use keywords. Your page may trigger ads for other products too. All this affects who, how and how much they will pay which in turn affect your revenues.

Finally, Google won't say the percentage they are paying to you. You can be sure it's not more than 50%. Way back when, years ago, I did have a site where I placed Adsense and I figured it was 50%. But those were simpler times. I'm sure there's a complicated formula and it could range anywhere from 10 to 50%.

So for the example above where Google gets 81 cents, you'd get at most 40 cents, assuming a 50/50 split. I believe Google gives you the partial cent of a calculation, if I recall my Adsense days, so 81/2 being 40.5 cents, it rounds up in your favor and pays you 41 cents.

There are so many factors you should take in consideration to calculate this it its almost impossible. If i would know exactly what kind of money i would get for certain keywords i would be sitting in the bahamaś at this moment