Ok, something's wrong, too good to be true (adwords experts, this is for you)

9 replies
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Ok... So I got this nice little list. Make about 2000 optins per month, from completey free traffic (different sources, blogs, articles, web 2.0, all kinds). I also make 5000$ worth of sales from those 2000 optins. Just my one small frontend product and affiliate sales (me recommending another person's frontend).

**But... I just went into adwords, and the math says I could make 360k a month... Something's off. I must be missing something. Please educate me.**

Here's what is.

-My per-optin-value is 2.5$ (2500$ in sales for every 1000 optins)
-Traffic estimator analyzes my squeeze page and gives keywords (nice and targetted)
-I remove all broad keywords (one word keywords, and those similar, but not related), still leaves me with enough clicks 7800 clicks a day (4680 optins per day, or 140400 a month)
-At our current conversion, thats 140400 X 2.5$ == 351K a month. The maximum estimated average click is just 50 cents... So 280k a month, past adwords expense.

*I've never done paid traffic with IM before. Did a lot of it back in my offline business days. But not IM. I feel like I'm missing something.
#adwords #experts #good #true #wrong
  • Profile picture of the author dburk
    Hi Nirvanos,

    PPC advertising and AdWords in particular allows for complete contol over many useful attributes of your advertising campaigns. You can measure results and make bids right down to the keyword level.

    In addition, many people who click on sponsored links are more likely to be in the market to make a purchase, so conversion rates can be much higher than other sources of traffic. I have found that in many niches you will get 70-90% of your conversions from paid vs organic traffic.

    The down side is that all these possible variables makes for a steep learning curve for the new entrant. There are numerous possible mistakes and winning strategies can sometimes be complex. You may be wise to go slow while learning, or seek the help of a seasoned professional.
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    • Profile picture of the author Nirvanos
      Originally Posted by dburk View Post

      Hi Nirvanos,

      PPC advertising and AdWords in particular allows for complete contol over many useful attributes of your advertising campaigns. You can measure results and make bids right down to the keyword level.

      In addition, many people who click on sponsored links are more likely to be in the market to make a purchase, so conversion rates can be much higher than other sources of traffic. I have found that in many niches you will get 70-90% of your conversions from paid vs organic traffic.

      The down side is that all these possible variables makes for a steep learning curve for the new entrant. There are numerous possible mistakes and winning strategies can sometimes be complex. You may be wise to go slow while learning, or seek the help of a seasoned professional.
      You know... The whole "give value first and get back later" works best when its genuine. It would have helped if I sense that you read my post at all. This way I get the impression you're doing the quantity method of "planting as many seeds as possible"

      It doesn't. Just makes me irritated that its obvious you didn't read my question.

      Doesn't work in the real world. Canned answers annoy people.

      What's ironic is that I AM actually looking to outsource my PPC, and now I know I will never outsource it to you.

      You could have said something like

      Ya its common to feel tht way, but my clients and friends have been able to make tht.
      Its funny, but there is no reason why your calculations aren't correct from what I can see.

      Good Luck
      Signature for ppc outsourcing
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      • Profile picture of the author dburk
        Hi Nivanos,

        I'm shocked at your response.

        If you review this board you will find that I have offered valuable advice for years and never asked anything in return. Yet you come in with you first post and accuse me of not reading your post? :confused:

        Let's clear things up, I found your post very ambigous and the only response that seemed appropriate was a generalized answer. If you have a specific question, then ask it specifically.

        The numbers you are looking at in the traffic estimater is just that, estimates. How well you setup and manage your campaigns are going to effect your results a great deal.

        If I read your post correctly, you seemed to find the potential results that the estimator shows as incredulous. I was simply pointing out that it is showing you what is potentially possible and your actual results will vary according to your skills and expertise.

        If there was a specific question in your post, I was unable to spot it, even after re-reading it several times. Perhaps I'm just too dense. If you can ask your question again in terms that a simple (or dumb) person like myself might understand it, I'll try to help.

        If you prefer not to see my signature, please go to the User Control Panel and uncheck "View Signatures" under the "Thread Display Options". And, If you hate me just add me to your ignore list.

        Try to keep in mind that other people read these forums and it's somewhat offensive to go off on someone just because they have a link in their signature that happens to be related to your topic. After all you did ask specifically for Awords Experts to reply, then complained about my signature. :confused:
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        • Profile picture of the author Nirvanos
          Actually, i never make presuppositions. So I make damn sure its not my projection before I make an assumption of an impression. I'm proud of that.

          I pasted your reply to 8 different marketers and my question. And asked "what do you think of this reply?". Without any comment on my part. To see what they'll say.

          They all responded to the tune "wtf, did he even read what you asked?" or "this guy is selling you something". Without ever seeing the signature. After my impression was confirmed, I replied here.

          I'm not "going off on you". I'm just telling you how your post comes across. Its not an assessment of your character or your posts before it. It's a constructive suggestion.

          True, the question is not clear, but none of what you answered relates to anything I wrote about. I see absolutely nothing that indicates it couldn't have been copy-pasted from somewhere. I'm not complaining that an adwords expert replied, in fact I AM looking for someone to outsource my PPC to! I am just telling you of the impression the post had. Take it for what it is, constructive.

          For example, when I respond to my customers, even if its 90% canned, I see that it has something specific to them, or their question, some key word, or languaging or name. Anything from their email. Anything to say this is reply that can't just be sent to anyone. Your post I can go and copy-paste, word-for-word to any adwords topic on any forum in existence. Again, its not an attack, just a feedback on impression.
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          • Profile picture of the author dburk
            Hi Nirvanos,

            OK, fine I accept your corrective criticism. I did a poor job in relating my answer to your question.

            Actually I can appreciate your sentiment as there are far too many folks on this forum that never contribute anything of value. I suspect that they are simply link dropping. I've heard of services that actually pay people to do this and I think it pollutes the forums where it's practiced.

            You may want to keep in mind that it can be equally annoying when folks post asking for help, but haven't taken the time formulate a specific question. I find the only way to respond is with general information or to simply ignore the post.

            It's not uncommon for a post like yours to go unanswered even on a large forum like WF. Since this was your first post, my intent was to be kind and not simply ignore your post. I thought you might respond with more specific questions.

            I accept that often folks may begin a dialog with general opinions and work they way into specific questions. That was my intended tact with your post. Perhaps I can still answer your question if you can rephrase it.

            What exactly was your question?
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  • Profile picture of the author FrankRumbauskas
    Originally Posted by Nirvanos View Post

    Ok... So I got this nice little list. Make about 2000 optins per month, from completey free traffic (different sources, blogs, articles, web 2.0, all kinds). I also make 5000$ worth of sales from those 2000 optins. Just my one small frontend product and affiliate sales (me recommending another person's frontend).

    **But... I just went into adwords, and the math says I could make 360k a month... Something's off. I must be missing something. Please educate me.**
    No, your math isn't off. I've been online as a top expert in the sales niche since 2003. NY Times best-selling author. Tons of media exposure. SEO rankings all over the place. Front page of Google for my top search phrase for years. Tons of people talking about me on blogs and forums. And on and on.

    Despite all that, over 95% of my sales still come from AdWords.

    It's a LOT more powerful than you think, and for that reason it frustrates me that more IMers are content with what they have and never unleash the MASSIVE power of AdWords.
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  • Profile picture of the author Jeremy Wilson
    Well, honestly any estimates Google gives you are pretty inaccurate especially the "clicks per day" stuff.

    Google has no way of knowing how good your ad copy will be, what position you will consistently be in, if your product appeals to people more than competing products, heck, even how you format your display URL or the domain name itself can have a HUGE impact on click an conversions while changing nothing else.

    Then there is the mentality of the people clicking your ad (which can be vastly different from folks clicking on normal search results)

    The point being even Google cannot predict results accurately taking into account the tons of variables that differ from advertiser to advertiser.

    Next, click costs are hard to estimate because a really great ad can dramatically reduce click costs while a poor ad can shoot your per clicks costs through the roof.

    Finally, for Google's keyword tool you can specify traffic estimates based on broad, phrase and exact match terms.

    I believe by default this is set to broad match so let's take an example. Searching on the word "football"

    Google Estimates (Broad) 30,400,000 searches/month
    Google Estimates (Exact) 823,000 searches/month

    Huge difference! What Google is saying with "broad" match results is that phrases containing the word "football" no matter what that search phrase is accounts for over 30 million searches/month

    On the other hand they receive about 800,000 searches a month for the exact search phrase "football"

    So if you estimates in your original post are based on "broad" match estimates that could would be the first "problem" so to speak with your figures.

    Hope this helps.
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    • Profile picture of the author dburk
      Hi Jeremy,

      Nice post.

      I agree with 100% with what you said, and to Google's credit they very accurately label the estimates as, well, "estimates". I personally have found that their estimates run on the conservative side. I typically double their estimates for my own purposes. While I sure an inexperienced advertiser is likely to fall short of their estimates.

      I could be wrong but I think the poster was questioning whether the numbers he saw were achievable. It seems that so many people think that by using SEO only, you will corner the market on a product or service. When in fact the bulk of the business typically goes to those companies that are advertising.

      When people are in a buying mood, they are far more likely to click what they perceive to be an ad, because they know they will be able to buy from that page.
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  • Profile picture of the author Jeremy Wilson
    Hey Don,

    Thanks for the compliment about my post.

    I agree that Google's search estimates can be pretty conservative at times.

    But one thing I have learned is that rarely can you use the estimates to perform a simply multiplication problem to calculate the money you will make.

    I have been disappointed some many times after doing that that I try to ignore that aspect of things all together and wait for the real data to roll in. :-)
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