Can we determine keyword competition manually?

Very difficult to tell without the right tools. Just by looking at the 1st page ranking for the particular keyword doesn't give you any useful data to work on.

Only thing you can do is just guess. By doing that you would be risking your time and effort.

You need the right tool. Best to use Google Adwords Keyword Tool it will help you out. Good luck!

3K searches per month is not likely to be a high competition keyword. I deem anything from 10K searches per month a high competition keyword even before evaluating the competition for the keyword.

You can assess the level of competition for any keyword without using any tools apart from Google.com. Search for the keyword while logged out of your Google account and with a proxy in the country where yiu want to rank.

Then check whether the top 10 ranking sites have the following features:

- keyword in title
- keyword in alt tag
- keyword in anchor text of backlinks
- natural link profile
- high authority backlinks
- aged domains
- long, well-researched content

The more sites in the top 10 having the above listed features, the higher the level of competition for the keyword.

I see this completely differently...

At this point, tools feel like they mislead people, newbies in particular. If you lay a page of results in front of someone that has been doing this for years I wouldn't be surprised if they can determine the real competition level far more accurately than a set of 5, 10 or even 20 metrics.

Not only is it possible to do without tools - I feel it's preferred.

Of course teaching that skill is far more difficult. That's like asking a veteran engine builder to compress 30 years of experience into a 30 minute lesson... it's just not realistic.

While you could do it manually, it will be a much easier task with at least some basic tools.

I'd suggest SEO Spyglass or even plugging in the top few results into ahrefs.com to get a general idea of the competition.

Over the years I have found such tools to be completely useless in terms of SEO difficulty scoring. The whole subject of scoring is completely subjective to the end user.

The only way of truly finding out how difficult a keyword is going to be for "YOU" to rank.

Is to build the best page you can for the keyword.
Optimize it to the best of your ability for the keyword.
And throw the best links in your arsenal at it to try rank for the keyword.

If you can rank for it.
Well done you did it. You're great, now fill your boots with $$$

If you can't rank for it.
Hard luck, change your links and try another word. Next one might be easier.

Limiting beliefs, even limit the dreamers.

^^ All of that. All of it!

It's an incredibly important mindset to have. That's what experience does for you....

Couldn't OP download Mozbar on his browser to scope out PA, DA, and Links.

Then do further analysis of on-page SEO to make a good judgement.

Pay attention to how many authority sites are ranking, niche sites, and YouTube videos.

Good sign if there is a YT video ranking and/or some niche sites. Bad sign if page 1 is mostly authority sites.