Advertising on Facebook is Like Playing Blackjack
Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the world. Oddly enough, people tend to behave with blackjack much like they do with Facebook ads. If you do both Facebook ads and blackjack, I would value your feedback on what you think of this comparison. Here's my story of how they are the same. I hope you either enjoy the story or get an idea of how your social media marketing could benefit from the comparison!
In summary, Facebook ads and blackjack both present themselves as games of skill that the average player can have a chance at succeeding at. The truth is that the simplicity of the game gives people a false sense of how well they are playing it. Most people feel like they are playing with skill or advertising with skill but the truth is very few actually are. If people knew how to succeed from the beginning instead of assuming they knew how to play or could easily learn, the odds would be much more in their favor. In blackjack, this means learning the odds tables. With Facebook ads, this means focusing only on the cost per action as it relates to either positive income or positive attention. Now, if you want more, here's how I came up with this comparison!
In March 2010, I sat down at a blackjack table in Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada. I chose this table because it was closest to the beautiful dancers on stage. With a $15/hand minimum that was sure to go to $50/hand by the end of the night, it presented the best opportunity to watch the girls dance for a long time. Prior to making this trip, I had played a few hundred hours of blackjack poorly and studied blackjack so that I could be a better player. The odds tables tell players exactly what play to make in every scenario. For example, if you have 11, you double down unless the dealer has an ace showing. If they have an ace, you hit. If you have 20, you never ever split. Since casino rules have variations, you have to modify the table slightly for house rules. If the house hits soft 17 for example, you will always double down on 11 even if the dealer has an ace showing. Playing by what the odds table tells you to do gives you the best chance to lose the least money in the long run and play the longest. If you can combine playing the tables with an advanced strategy such as card counting, you can actually win.
When I sat at the blackjack table, I knew there was a lot about blackjack I did not know. I knew that if I really wanted to win I would have to stay sober, count the cards, adjust my bet based on the count, and not engage with any of the players at the table. What I knew I did not know was how much I could actually make doing this, what level of bet I would have to make to equate my time to a decent wage, and the odds of doing all of this being any fun or getting me kicked out of the casino. I sat down knowing I knew just enough to survive longer and that I was no professional. I wouldn't have told you I was good but I also wouldn't have told you I was bad.
I played for five hours. During that time, around twenty people came and went at the table with me. All but one lost everything they sat down with. At the same time, people consistently told me I did not know what I was doing, I was playing wrong, I was stealing their cards, and I was getting lucky. I kept making people mad when I would hit on 16 like the table said to do if the dealer had a seven or better up and then ending up with 20 or 21. I won a lot of hands by one or two over the dealer. I was just playing the tables and it drove people nuts. I also had a few losing streaks to be fair and the amount of money I had fluctuated by as much as $500 during the night. I finished by leaving with hundreds of dollars more than I came with and having put down more than ten free drinks.
Why did it drive people nuts? They thought they knew how to play. Several of them told me they were great at blackjack, they played all the time, or they knew exactly what they were doing. At the same time they told me this, they consistently were making moves exactly the opposite of what they should have done. Many played the "don't bust" strategy popular among people that think they are good but do not know the odds tables. Many played the dealer always has a ten strategy where they assume the dealer's down card is a ten and base their entire strategy on that. For example, they will hit 17 or 18 when the dealer has a ten up because they assume they will need to get 21 to win. This generally results in a loss.
The problem for most players is that blackjack appears simple enough that most people never think to try to learn a little bit more about it. If they have a winning streak sometime, they think they are good for the rest of their life at it. Meanwhile, a few people really are good at it and know they can clean out a casino at the blackjack table. The casinos work incredibly hard to get rid of them and to ban them from playing. The casino is built on people that are bad playing blackjack and consistently aim to fill their tables with people that will be profitable to them. The people at those tables think they are good while the people that know they are good are often not allowed to play.
Facebook advertising is much the same. Facebook ads look easy on the surface and give people a false sense of how easy they are to run. People experienced with other advertising platforms assume they know which data they should pay attention to and what will work. People with no experience see how easy it is to make an ad and get a few fans. They imply the value the ads must have since they are usually a Facebook user prior to making ads. This obvious simplicity is just what gets most advertisers to never ask more questions. By comparison, Google AdWords is obviously difficult to most people that step into the interface the first time. First time advertisers on Google often see the interface and immediately start looking for help.
Blackjack is one of the most profitable games at a casino because most people that play it think they are good at it and think they have an honest chance at winning. They have heard the success stories and they are confident they can be one too. This is the casino game where the most people are wrong about their skill and it costs them in the form of having very low odds of winning. You can see this because at most of the other tables, people rarely boast about their skill, consistently admit the game is mostly luck, and accept that the house has the advantage but they might get lucky. Blackjack is the one game in my experience where the attitudes of the players are most misaligned with reality.
Facebook has the advertising system where the most advertisers are misaligned with reality in the same way. The game looks easy on the surface but most people tend to get the lowest return out of their ads on Facebook all while thinking they are doing a great job.
In summary, Facebook ads and blackjack both present themselves as games of skill that the average player can have a chance at succeeding at. The truth is that the simplicity of the game gives people a false sense of how well they are playing it. Most people feel like they are playing with skill or advertising with skill but the truth is very few actually are. If people knew how to succeed from the beginning instead of assuming they knew how to play or could easily learn, the odds would be much more in their favor. In blackjack, this means learning the odds tables. With Facebook ads, this means focusing only on the cost per action as it relates to either positive income or positive attention. Now, if you want more, here's how I came up with this comparison!
In March 2010, I sat down at a blackjack table in Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada. I chose this table because it was closest to the beautiful dancers on stage. With a $15/hand minimum that was sure to go to $50/hand by the end of the night, it presented the best opportunity to watch the girls dance for a long time. Prior to making this trip, I had played a few hundred hours of blackjack poorly and studied blackjack so that I could be a better player. The odds tables tell players exactly what play to make in every scenario. For example, if you have 11, you double down unless the dealer has an ace showing. If they have an ace, you hit. If you have 20, you never ever split. Since casino rules have variations, you have to modify the table slightly for house rules. If the house hits soft 17 for example, you will always double down on 11 even if the dealer has an ace showing. Playing by what the odds table tells you to do gives you the best chance to lose the least money in the long run and play the longest. If you can combine playing the tables with an advanced strategy such as card counting, you can actually win.
When I sat at the blackjack table, I knew there was a lot about blackjack I did not know. I knew that if I really wanted to win I would have to stay sober, count the cards, adjust my bet based on the count, and not engage with any of the players at the table. What I knew I did not know was how much I could actually make doing this, what level of bet I would have to make to equate my time to a decent wage, and the odds of doing all of this being any fun or getting me kicked out of the casino. I sat down knowing I knew just enough to survive longer and that I was no professional. I wouldn't have told you I was good but I also wouldn't have told you I was bad.
I played for five hours. During that time, around twenty people came and went at the table with me. All but one lost everything they sat down with. At the same time, people consistently told me I did not know what I was doing, I was playing wrong, I was stealing their cards, and I was getting lucky. I kept making people mad when I would hit on 16 like the table said to do if the dealer had a seven or better up and then ending up with 20 or 21. I won a lot of hands by one or two over the dealer. I was just playing the tables and it drove people nuts. I also had a few losing streaks to be fair and the amount of money I had fluctuated by as much as $500 during the night. I finished by leaving with hundreds of dollars more than I came with and having put down more than ten free drinks.
Why did it drive people nuts? They thought they knew how to play. Several of them told me they were great at blackjack, they played all the time, or they knew exactly what they were doing. At the same time they told me this, they consistently were making moves exactly the opposite of what they should have done. Many played the "don't bust" strategy popular among people that think they are good but do not know the odds tables. Many played the dealer always has a ten strategy where they assume the dealer's down card is a ten and base their entire strategy on that. For example, they will hit 17 or 18 when the dealer has a ten up because they assume they will need to get 21 to win. This generally results in a loss.
The problem for most players is that blackjack appears simple enough that most people never think to try to learn a little bit more about it. If they have a winning streak sometime, they think they are good for the rest of their life at it. Meanwhile, a few people really are good at it and know they can clean out a casino at the blackjack table. The casinos work incredibly hard to get rid of them and to ban them from playing. The casino is built on people that are bad playing blackjack and consistently aim to fill their tables with people that will be profitable to them. The people at those tables think they are good while the people that know they are good are often not allowed to play.
Facebook advertising is much the same. Facebook ads look easy on the surface and give people a false sense of how easy they are to run. People experienced with other advertising platforms assume they know which data they should pay attention to and what will work. People with no experience see how easy it is to make an ad and get a few fans. They imply the value the ads must have since they are usually a Facebook user prior to making ads. This obvious simplicity is just what gets most advertisers to never ask more questions. By comparison, Google AdWords is obviously difficult to most people that step into the interface the first time. First time advertisers on Google often see the interface and immediately start looking for help.
Blackjack is one of the most profitable games at a casino because most people that play it think they are good at it and think they have an honest chance at winning. They have heard the success stories and they are confident they can be one too. This is the casino game where the most people are wrong about their skill and it costs them in the form of having very low odds of winning. You can see this because at most of the other tables, people rarely boast about their skill, consistently admit the game is mostly luck, and accept that the house has the advantage but they might get lucky. Blackjack is the one game in my experience where the attitudes of the players are most misaligned with reality.
Facebook has the advertising system where the most advertisers are misaligned with reality in the same way. The game looks easy on the surface but most people tend to get the lowest return out of their ads on Facebook all while thinking they are doing a great job.
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