Coming boom in software development - big $$$

by gareth
20 replies
Do a PDF search in Google for Forrester smart computing

There is a report from Forrester Research outlining the next phase of dramatic growth in IT.

They predict a 100% increase in annual IT budgets in the USA by 2018. Thats an extra $400,000,000,000 being spent every year and most of it on software development.

This equals more money than the entire growth of the internet in the 90's. You can add probably greater investment in China and Europe during this growth cycle too.

So basically by 2018 there could be an additional one trillion to 1.5 trillion dollars being invested annually in Tech and IT in addition to whats spent now globally.

This will be a phenomenal boom that will change society forever. Most people are focussed on the recession at present but I urge you to find the report and consider areas of opportunity.

It was also covered in the Economist recently but I am an electronics Engineer and I can assure you that "smart computing" is just the tip of the iceberg for whats about to happen.
#$$$ #big #boom #coming #development #software
  • Profile picture of the author mortamous
    I hope your findings will become a reality, it sounds like a world I want to be a part of (as a software developer)
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  • Profile picture of the author warriorkay
    Wow, my head is already spinning with what's here,
    and they want to add more,

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  • Profile picture of the author nealh
    This is an interesting chat. I just makes you wonder where we will be in these next few years as things seem to be forever developing faster and faster.

    Exciting
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  • Profile picture of the author bertyounger
    I don't know maybe I had too much holiday cheer but the original Forrester report was from a year ago and sounds more like marketing hype. Far as I am concerned the next big quantum leap is when we change the human interface to the computer from monitor, keyboard and mouse to well... whatever is next. Otherwise its more of the same to me. Happy holidays all!
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  • Profile picture of the author dvduval
    That would be great for us if it holds true. I would love to be in Odesk's shoes right now.
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    It is okay to contact me! I have been developing software since 1999, creating many popular products like phpLD.
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  • Profile picture of the author digichik
    Sounds like opportunity knocking.
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  • Profile picture of the author gareth
    Everybody is desperate at the moment and these guys are gunna try sell the solution.

    Boom and Bust
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    Gareth M Thomas
    Serial Entrepreneur
    Auckland, New Zealand

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  • Profile picture of the author gareth
    I also am aware of a hype factor but no the conditions are right - apart from the US debt but thats just it, as many companies and municipalities are "desperate" to become more cost effective. Desperate buyers !!!

    HP is releasing the first memristor chips 2013 even if its 2015 combined with nanophotonics its revolutionary. If it pans out Leon Chua deserves a Nobel prize.

    I'm bullish on it short of another major crash or terror attack.
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    Gareth M Thomas
    Serial Entrepreneur
    Auckland, New Zealand

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  • Profile picture of the author John Romaine
    "The leads are weak..."
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    • Profile picture of the author wanna-succeed
      I alwyas thought that within 50-100 years they could install computers into our brains directly.
      Imagine if they could put a powerfull computer (by that time a strong computer will be the size of a sim card) straight into your brain and you could access and utilize all the function using your thoughts alone.
      Then again, getting hacked wouldn't be too fun....
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      No sig, good day m8...

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      • Profile picture of the author SageSound
        Originally Posted by wanna-succeed View Post

        I alwyas thought that within 50-100 years they could install computers into our brains directly.
        Imagine if they could put a powerfull computer (by that time a strong computer will be the size of a sim card) straight into your brain and you could access and utilize all the function using your thoughts alone.
        Then again, getting hacked wouldn't be too fun....
        We're not that far away. Have you seen the products from these guys: Emotiv - Brain Computer Interface Technology

        -David
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  • Profile picture of the author SageSound
    This is a common misconception ... "IT" is *NOT* "software development".

    People with backgrounds in Computer Science do not get hired into IT roles, and vice versa. They are totally different skill sets.

    Here's the current reality:

    * There are nearly 1 million unemployed software people in America today, many more when you add in the broader scope of "engineers" as opposed to just "computer science" people.

    * The majority of these people are over 40.

    * Current immigration laws allow for 65,000 H-1B visas to be issued to foreign nationals. These are usually gone less than a month after they become available, usually in October of each year.

    * Large companies like Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, and others, have been HEAVILY lobbying Congress to RAISE H-1B quotas for years.

    * Most software vendors are no longer hiring based on general talent. Rather, they're hiring based on a smorgasboard of specific tools and talents where they want you to have 3-years direct hands-on experience with a litany of things they list in the job description. Unfortunately, most job descriptions are written by HR people who have no clue what they mean. For the most part, over half the job reqs posted today are totally unrealistic.

    * You cannot get an interview today unless you either, (1) know someone who knows the hiring manager; or (2) lie on your resume and job application. The trouble is, HR doesn't know that you're lying, but it usually comes across in the first phone screen with a technical person. It's a huge time-waster for organizations.

    * Excellent candidates never get in the front door if they're honest on their resume and job apps.

    * Tax laws prevent most corporations from hiring contractors directly; it's too risky. So they go through third-party job shops. Many of these job shops are in fact set up by foreigners as a means of bringing other foreigners into America under H-1B visas. They pay these people less than what American new college grads would be paid, usually $20-$25/hr. H-1B mandates require them to only show they couldn't hire Americans to fill the jobs; they aren't required to document the fact that they don't pay reasonable rates.

    * Because there are so many unfilled jobs and so few "qualified" Americans to fill them, the third-party job shops are setting up facilities in their home countries, like India, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, etc., and funneling jobs off-shore this way.

    Issues that are complicating things, and that will lead to a steady increase in off-shore hiring trends, are:

    * enrollment in Engineering and Computer Science programs in America is at the lowest levels in history. Kids over the past decade have seen that their parents cannot find work in these fields, so they are staying away in droves.

    * something like 60% or more of students in American Graduate Schools working on Masters and PhDs in Engineering and Comp Sci are FOREIGNERS.

    * the US DOD and their contractors are the largest single employer of American Engineers and Comp Sci graduates. They don't pay to send these people back to grad school, and they cannot hire foreign natioinals. When combined with the overall drop in enrollments, their hiring practices are virtually gutting American Grad Schools of American students.

    * to make matters worse, virtually no American corporations are spending anything on helping their American employees get Masters and PhD degrees. Most spending is going towards MBAs.

    * American software companies spend far more on lobbying Congress to get H-1B quotas raised then they spend on educational programs on "job retraining" for unemployed Americans.

    * right-wing conservative politicians are only making things worse by proposing to eliminate tax incentives, job retraining programs, and meager subsidies that would serve to make more unemployed Americans "qualified" to be hired by American employers with unfilled job positions.

    While I totally believe that IT jobs will expand over the next decade, I don't see any particular end to the job shortage in the programming world. Economic pressures and short-sightedness are driving them to become increasingly reliant on off-shore facilities for software development.

    Interestingly, most IT jobs cannot be out-sourced. But programming jobs can be.

    Anyway, Forrester's white papers are very self-serving, in that they are designed to collect information from industry and present it in ways that will encourage these same companies to hire them in a consulting capacity to deal with the very problems that they report in their publications.

    -David
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    • Profile picture of the author bgmacaw
      Originally Posted by SageSound View Post

      * right-wing conservative politicians are only making things worse by proposing to eliminate tax incentives, job retraining programs, and meager subsidies that would serve to make more unemployed Americans "qualified" to be hired by American employers with unfilled job positions.
      I agree with you everything else but I don't agree with you on this point. The particular political bent doesn't matter so much as who is contributing to said politician's campaign fund. It's much like the situation with extremely long term copyright laws where you had liberal Democrats who were getting heavy Hollywood donations siding with conservative Republicans who had interests in various publishing and media companies. Politicians being funded by Google, Microsoft, Intel, etc. are likely to be in favor of expanding H1B and cutting tax incentives to hire American programmers and engineers, regardless of which side of the aisle they sit on.
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  • Profile picture of the author Brad Spencer
    Hey David,

    Good to see you back around here...

    Software is going to be huge but I think the problem with American software engineers is going to be solved by a major entrepreneurial boom in software. Most of the software guys I know are "tweakers and testers" meaning they're always learning something to grow their skill base. Just seems like they have a bug up their ass in this regard (good thing).

    The amount of super intelligence softwares is going to make current CRM systems look ancient. AI combined with computers that learn/evolve will make robotics practical and then it's going to be 100% entrepreneurial.

    I'm 25 right now and by the time I'm 40, I expect most factories to be 100% automated in America so we can compete with Chinese manufacturing (they are moving up the value chain after all) and that people will go to special "entrepreneurial charter schools" that funnel kids out of "college" but rather into "hustle and move" business world.

    Software people can make it...but most MBA education is utter garbage. It doesn't teach business. Getting in front of 100 clients and pitching them over and over does (amongst many other activities).

    Evolution of the American business environment I guess.

    Cheers,

    Brad
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