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The stock markets in China have almost been in freefall for about a month...new intervention to stop the slide seemed to be working today.

The lengths to which the govt is going to stabilize the economy is fascinating to me. At what point does the global economy collapse - when major large govts can't prop up their economies any more?

Is the goal to keep things running until they reach some balance again? Can this be maintained?

China is taking 10 huge actions to save its stock market - Jul. 8, 2015
  • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
    Banned
    Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

    The stock markets in China have almost been in freefall for about a month...new intervention to stop the slide seemed to be working today.

    The lengths to which the govt is going to stabilize the economy is fascinating to me. At what point does the global economy collapse - when major large govts can't prop up their economies any more?

    Is the goal to keep things running until they reach some balance again? Can this be maintained?

    China is taking 10 huge actions to save its stock market - Jul. 8, 2015
    When your government encourages the average citizen to invest their life's savings into a bubble, they certainly have every responsibility to do whatever they can to stave off disaster when the bubble pops.

    We'll be fine, but anyone that believes that China is poised to 'eat our lunch' economically, knows absolutely nothing about economics or the true state of the world's economy, fear-mongering aside.

    The Chinese government created this mess all by themselves and they are terrified of the implications, as well they should be.

    The US still has the strongest and safest economy on the planet.

    Cheers. - Frank
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    • Profile picture of the author tagiscom
      Well China has a couple of trillion lying around, so they aren't in the dog house yet, (sorry Lexi).

      And sell off all the Australian farms, they have been stocking up on for beef production!

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      • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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        Originally Posted by tagiscom View Post

        And sell off all the Australian farms, they have been stocking up on for beef production!
        Not to mention their worldwide 'rare-earth' holdings.

        Cheers. - Frank
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        • Profile picture of the author Kay King
          I've been interested in China's economy since watching a 60 minutes clip about people buying condos in cities built only to sell - but not to live in.

          People in China had money but nothing to spend it on...there were entire cities built with business centers and towering apartment buildings and roads, etc - and no one lived there because they were only "investments".

          The risk to the US economy from China is in loss of export sales and risk of non-payment/default on some of the companies/commercial ventures and real estate that US has allowed to be sold to foreign interests.

          Wasn't surprised to see the link below this morning - out of Columbia Univ which isn't surprising. Amazing how the economic view can change or be rationalized to make a point, isn't it?

          Greece: Joseph Stiglitz on the Greece Debt Crisis

          Quote of the day was from a German official commenting on the US admins calls related to the Greek crisis.....he said "how about the US takes Greece and we'll take Puerto Rico"....
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  • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
    With all due respect, I have to disagree with the U.S. having the strongest and safest economy on the planet. Granted, I haven't had the time to check the books of the rest of the world economies recently, but the fact is that the U.S. is pushing 20 trillion dollars in debt with nothing to back it with. The government just keeps on printing money.

    Many long term financial experts have been predicting that the economy will finally implode in the next 1-2 years and we'll fall into the worst long term depression in history. Much worse than what happened in 2008-2009.

    These aren't all guys just trying to make a buck either. I see Ron Paul as genuine and trustworthy. Also, I can't imagine him promoting some scam offer while his son, Rand, is running for president.

    I'm not in the habit of joining the "doom and gloom" party, but I know firsthand that our economy is struggling right now and has been for the past couple years.

    As I mentioned in another post a few months ago, I speak to people in sub-niches of the building, construction, etc industry on a monthly basis and many of these business owners have begun to lay off employees in some areas of the country for lack of work. That's very rare in the summertime.

    Of course, there are other areas of the country where these markets are working steadily. Some areas are okay.

    However, a constant theme I've heard recently (5 times in the past week alone) is that they're not getting paid on time. Customers are in a huge rush to get work done, but they're taking months to pay their bills.

    I've had a few customers tell me recently that they simply can't buy anything right now - even if they need it. One guy told me that they have a line of credit they use to get them through winter and it's usually paid off by now, but not this year.

    Once again, I'm not trying to be the bearer of doom and gloom. I just wanted to share what I'm hearing from small business owners that are actually out there doing stuff. Not some manufactured crap statistics the government puts out to try to convince everyone everything's gotten so much better.

    I also chat with other suppliers and read trade magazines to see what other companies are advertising so I'm "in the know". I've heard the same things from other suppliers, too, some big companies. I've also noticed a massive reduction in advertising, with the exception of a couple long term companies using Adwords. Even the products I'm seeing advertised are more like clearance items rather than putting the more popular brands and products on sale.

    That tells me a couple things:

    1. They're trying to bring in customers by using clearance inventory almost exclusively to try to pay for their advertising without having to reduce their profit margins on bestselling items.

    2. They're feeling the effects like everyone else.

    As I said, I just don't see us as being very stable right now. If my household bills, business bills or both hit a certain plateau, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, I'd be screwed just like most other Americans would. The only difference between Uncle Sam and I is I don't have the convenience of printing more cash when I need it.

    Enough said. By the way, nothing personal against anyone. I'm just kind of ticked off and moody today. Maybe I'm going through "Man-o-pause"? :-)
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    • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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      Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

      With all due respect, I have to disagree with the U.S. having the strongest and safest economy on the planet. Granted, I haven't had the time to check the books of the rest of the world economies recently,
      That might be a good place to start. :-) The amount of dept needs to be evaluated as a % of GDP. As far as developed nations go - we're doing better than most. It all comes down to where do people want to invest when they leave other markets. The answer is, 'here.'

      Cheers. - Frank

      P.S. U.S. is 36th in latest figures I could readily find.: http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/77...bt-by-country/
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      • Profile picture of the author goneill
        Meltdown?

        This would depend on your time scale, over the last month its down about 25 - 30% over the last 12 months it is up 120%, so your opinion would depend on your investment strategy.

        Most private properties purchases in China require aprox 50 - 60% deposit, so little debt on the banks through loans. Compare this with UK, USA?, lets not forget who caused the last financial crisis, which we are still paying for, that is the taxpayers and what measures the various government undrtook to salvage their economies?

        A lot of these reports only deal with the headine with little or no understanding of the Chinese markets or even the dynamics of the Chinese markets and its people.

        The Chinese stock market has been the best deal over the last 15 years, I can remember prices of todays worlds four biggest banks been at 1 or 2 cents with p/e of 3- 4 and paying divs.

        China is a capitalist society with a socialist heart.
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    • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
      Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

      With all due respect, I have to disagree with the U.S. having the strongest and safest economy on the planet. Granted, I haven't had the time to check the books of the rest of the world economies recently, but the fact is that the U.S. is pushing 20 trillion dollars in debt with nothing to back it with. The government just keeps on printing money.

      Many long term financial experts have been predicting that the economy will finally implode in the next 1-2 years and we'll fall into the worst long term depression in history. Much worse than what happened in 2008-2009.

      These aren't all guys just trying to make a buck either. I see Ron Paul as genuine and trustworthy. Also, I can't imagine him promoting some scam offer while his son, Rand, is running for president.

      I'm not in the habit of joining the "doom and gloom" party, but I know firsthand that our economy is struggling right now and has been for the past couple years.

      As I mentioned in another post a few months ago, I speak to people in sub-niches of the building, construction, etc industry on a monthly basis and many of these business owners have begun to lay off employees in some areas of the country for lack of work. That's very rare in the summertime.

      Of course, there are other areas of the country where these markets are working steadily. Some areas are okay.

      However, a constant theme I've heard recently (5 times in the past week alone) is that they're not getting paid on time. Customers are in a huge rush to get work done, but they're taking months to pay their bills.

      I've had a few customers tell me recently that they simply can't buy anything right now - even if they need it. One guy told me that they have a line of credit they use to get them through winter and it's usually paid off by now, but not this year.

      Once again, I'm not trying to be the bearer of doom and gloom. I just wanted to share what I'm hearing from small business owners that are actually out there doing stuff. Not some manufactured crap statistics the government puts out to try to convince everyone everything's gotten so much better.

      I also chat with other suppliers and read trade magazines to see what other companies are advertising so I'm "in the know". I've heard the same things from other suppliers, too, some big companies. I've also noticed a massive reduction in advertising, with the exception of a couple long term companies using Adwords. Even the products I'm seeing advertised are more like clearance items rather than putting the more popular brands and products on sale.

      That tells me a couple things:

      1. They're trying to bring in customers by using clearance inventory almost exclusively to try to pay for their advertising without having to reduce their profit margins on bestselling items.

      2. They're feeling the effects like everyone else.

      As I said, I just don't see us as being very stable right now. If my household bills, business bills or both hit a certain plateau, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, I'd be screwed just like most other Americans would. The only difference between Uncle Sam and I is I don't have the convenience of printing more cash when I need it.

      Enough said. By the way, nothing personal against anyone. I'm just kind of ticked off and moody today. Maybe I'm going through "Man-o-pause"? :-)

      Mr. Paul is also selling newsletter subscriptions along with his dire warnings.

      An Exclusive With Ron Paul
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      • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
        Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post

        Mr. Paul is also selling newsletter subscriptions along with his dire warnings.

        An Exclusive With Ron Paul

        I see Ron Paul as genuine and trustworthy. Also, I can't imagine him promoting some scam offer while his son, Rand, is running for president.
        That's why I put this in my post. I'm pretty sure he's promoting Stansberry Research. I saw several reviews of the product at Amazon, mostly in the middle. The general consensus is that yes, Mr. Paul is spot on with his information, but it's information that's already common knowledge for many people.

        Also, he's not the only expert that's talking about this.
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        • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
          Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

          That's why I put this in my post. I'm pretty sure he's promoting Stansberry Research. I saw several reviews of the product at Amazon, mostly in the middle. The general consensus is that yes, Mr. Paul is spot on with his information, but it's information that's already common knowledge for many people.

          Also, he's not the only expert that's talking about this.
          One of his claims is that the world will lose confidence in the dollar and that will set it off. I doubt that will happen anytime soon as in the next 25-50 years - if ever.

          His moans about the national debt amount to not much IMHO.

          It is the opinion of just as many that we (the US) have a lot of debt - but it's still very manageable, since the interest payments on the U.S. national debt are about 300 billion per year.

          No one had any probs with the U.S. financial situation until some members of the national assembly decided to play chicken/Russian roulette with our debt situation and whether we were going to pay or not, and only got our debt downgraded a bit.

          But financial institutions all over the world are still falling all over themselves to loan us money to meet our budget shortfalls which have gone from 1.4. trillion in 2009 down to about 400 billion now.

          IMHO, If we ever get those non-nation building chums out of office and begin to invest in ourselves along with national projects like going green and rebuilding our infrastructure this economy will take off and the American standard of living will return to close to where is was in the post WW2 era - before the net set of policies and attitudes of the 1980's began to derail the American dream in earnest.

          Anyways...

          Why don't you get the subscription and protect yourself from what Mr. Paul claims is on the way - if you believe in him so much?


          All The Best!!


          TL
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          • Profile picture of the author Joe Stewart
            Originally Posted by TLTheLiberator View Post


            Why don't you get the subscription and protect yourself from what Mr. Paul claims is on the way - if you believe in him so much?
            TL
            What's your deal? You can't seem to have a civil conversation without being a jerk. I just said I checked the book reviews at Amazon and they were right in the middle, as in 3 star average. I have no desire to run out and buy anything from anyone, at least, not yet.

            I also stated what I'm hearing from customers, prospects and other suppliers in my industry and it's not good. I've been doing this in some capacity since 1993, so I have pretty good insight.

            I'm not ready to go jump on the Stansberry Research bandwagon or trust 100% of what Ron Paul, Jim Rickards or anyone else says, but it would be stupid not to at least listen, because they both have a history of credibility, regardless of what they're doing right now.

            I was cool with your post until that last sentence. What I buy, don't buy, how I invest or anything else I do is NONE of your business or anyone elses. Got it?
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            • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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              Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

              I also stated what I'm hearing from customers, prospects and other suppliers in my industry and it's not good. I've been doing this in some capacity since 1993, so I have pretty good insight.
              Joe - not to be argumentative, but you have stated this anecdotal evidence more than once over the past year in great detail.

              Businesses retrenching is not a sign of imminent collapse of our economy. It's just prudent action during a time of economic slowdown.

              The sky is not falling and the economy is not crashing. I have been reading and hearing for the past 15 years that it's just a 'year or two away.' It hasn't even been a 'decade or two.'

              I spent an hour listening to Janet Yellen, today. I'll sleep well, tonight.

              Cheers. - Frank
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            • Profile picture of the author TLTheLiberator
              Originally Posted by Joe Stewart View Post

              What's your deal? You can't seem to have a civil conversation without being a jerk. I just said I checked the book reviews at Amazon and they were right in the middle, as in 3 star average. I have no desire to run out and buy anything from anyone, at least, not yet.

              I also stated what I'm hearing from customers, prospects and other suppliers in my industry and it's not good. I've been doing this in some capacity since 1993, so I have pretty good insight.

              I'm not ready to go jump on the Stansberry Research bandwagon or trust 100% of what Ron Paul, Jim Rickards or anyone else says, but it would be stupid not to at least listen, because they both have a history of credibility, regardless of what they're doing right now.

              I was cool with your post until that last sentence. What I buy, don't buy, how I invest or anything else I do is NONE of your business or anyone else's. Got it?
              How am I being uncivil? What's your deal?

              I'm guessing you've been waiting for some time to let me have it and now you have.

              Good for you. Feel better?

              I get it.

              I never said it was any of my business but you seem pretty sure that Mr. Paul is on to something so I thought it wouldn't be a bad idea for you or anyone else who believes in Mr. Paul to get that $49 for one year deal or even better, grab that two year deal for only $69.

              It seems like such a bargain.
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              • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
                Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of The Black Swan, told the story of a turkey who is fed by the farmer every morning for 1,000 days. Eventually the turkey comes to expect that every visit from the farmer means more good food. After all, that's all that has ever happened so the turkey figures that's all that can and will ever happen. But then Day 1,001 arrives. It's two days before Thanksgiving and when the farmer shows up, he is not bearing food, but an ax. The turkey learns very quickly that its expectations were catastrophically off the mark. And now Mr. Turkey is dinner.

                Taleb's advice: "Let's not be turkeys."

                The lesson of our doomed turkey illustrates the central problem of unexpected, "black swan" events (or in this case "black turkey," I guess). We simply do not have enough data to reach empirical conclusions about how a risk will manifest itself and to what degree.

                "Just because you never died before, doesn't make you immortal," said Taleb.
                Morgan O'Rourke

                Nassim Taleb: "Let's Not Be Turkeys"

                Some recent turkeys:

                Cypriots.
                Greeks.
                Puerto Ricans.



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                • Profile picture of the author BigFrank
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                  Originally Posted by Joe Mobley View Post


                  Some recent turkeys:

                  Cypriots.
                  Greeks.
                  Puerto Ricans.
                  There are turkeys and then there is Chicken Little.

                  Cheers. - Frank
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  • Profile picture of the author seasoned
    The US is doing, or at least WAS doing, a LOT to prop things up! One reason given for the 1920 depression was the newly made FIAT money, HIGH VOLUME LOW COST LOANS, and a CALL!

    1913, "the FED" CREATED, together with a NEW tax code and structure.
    In the 1920s, the spigot was OPENED WIDE! Margins were 7:1 to 9:1 depending on who you talk to.
    http://www.newworldeconomics.com/arc...12/112512.html In THOSE days, 6% was a FORTUNE! Anyway, with people so easily buying, the stock market did well, and all were buying stock. Many did so on MARGIN! THOSE people had to sell, and may have had a margin call in one day. If they didn't make it, the stock would be sold as what they owed went up. THAT depressed the stock and caused it to feed off itself and people were so worried about bank runs that they ran to the bank to pull their money out FIRST.

    So YEAH, this type of government is FAR from new, and it is not a stranger to the US.

    Steve
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    • Profile picture of the author Kay King
      China is a capitalist society with a socialist heart.
      They certainly have their own way of shoring up the markets. They froze IPOs and now...

      China has banned stock SALES by major shareholders for six months.

      The Chinese market went UP - surprise, surprise. If people are only allowed to buy stock - and not allowed to sell it - I guess that would make the market look better.....

      Unbelievable - but apparently it's true.
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      • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
        Financial Market manipulation by a government is a HUGE sign of financial instability.

        Interestingly, Financial market manipulation by a government creates financial instability.


        Joe Mobley


        Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

        They certainly have their own way of shoring up the markets. They froze IPOs and now...

        China has banned stock SALES by major shareholders for six months.

        The Chinese market went UP - surprise, surprise. If people are only allowed to buy stock - and not allowed to sell it - I guess that would make the market look better.....

        Unbelievable - but apparently it's true.
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  • Profile picture of the author HeySal
    I also disagree with the US being one of the more stable economies. We could be, but it's not going to happen until the corruption of the top financial institution leaders get slapped (maybe put them in jail when the commit vast ranging financial crimes, like Iceland did?). Right now we have reserve currency status which has buoyed us no matter what criminal activity has been allowed by our financial institutions. However - the foundation is cracking on that prop. Russia, China, and a few other countries are in negotiations that will take us out of reserve status. The petro-dollar is another support in the wall that might be starting to shake loose. At this point, though - I'm not really sure with our status as #1 global producer, if that foundation crumbles if it will be a boom or bust for us. China can definitely put a chink in our armor with their RE monopoly, but not forever - we do have resources for RE minerals that could be exploited within a short time span, relieving us of any profiteering at that end. Then, too, China holds major amounts of US debt. So we've got one tangled mess going on at the time.

    The best thing we could do for ourselves (I'm talking about everyone, globally, is to pull out of World Bank. Let them fry on it - everything about them stinks of illegal anyway. A lot of the financial check mates and tyranny going on today would not be possible without their fiat currency pyramid they've built via the petro-dollar reserve.
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  • Profile picture of the author Joe Mobley
    Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

    The lengths to which the govt is going to stabilize the economy is fascinating to me. At what point does the global economy collapse - when major large govts can't prop up their economies any more?
    Way before we, the average citizen, knows anything about it.

    Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

    Can this be maintained?
    No.


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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    It seems that since the Chinese government intervened, the big investors have pulled out leaving the smaller investors. Then China suddenly decided to devalue its currency and the stocks fell again. One must suspect that the cronies got tipped off and sold their holdings before the devaluation. Now stocks are falling everywhere in the world.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kay King
      Just yesterday there was "news" that China would "allow pension funds to invest in the stock market"....

      Made me wonder if the real news was "pension funds required to invest members money to shore up market"....looks like it came too late...

      Watching the roller coasting on Wall Street is entertaining today.

      Derek - any guesses to where China goes from here?
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  • Profile picture of the author derekwong28
    Kay, nobody really knows how bad the situation is in China. It must be quite serious though or else they would not have devalued. Their stock market was a bubble and so is their property market. There is also a mountain of bad debt with their state owned companies and local governments. People there are conditioned to believe that their government can and will support the markets effectively. It will be interesting to see how things will go if the government fails.
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    • Profile picture of the author ThomM
      Kay when watching the noon news they said the stock market dropped 1,000 points comparing it to the 2008 stock market crash. While doing the report the reporter said that it had gone up to only a 220 drop. In the two minutes of the report it dropped another 60 points. Seems that even live news can't keep up with news they are reporting.
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      • Profile picture of the author Zodiax
        The world economy will never crash, because it is controlled by the people who run society in the first place.
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        • Profile picture of the author Kay King
          It must be quite serious though or else they would not have devalued
          I always remember the "ghost cities" but today is the first time I've heard a TV anchor mention that Chinese folly. I think the greatest fear here is that even experts don't seem to know the truth about the Chinese economic state.

          You can get whiplash today just watching the Dow go up and down!

          Down almost 400 again now - could be fascinating week to watch.
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          • Profile picture of the author MissTerraK
            Originally Posted by Kay King View Post

            I always remember the "ghost cities" but today is the first time I've heard a TV anchor mention that Chinese folly. I think the greatest fear here is that even experts don't seem to know the truth about the Chinese economic state.

            You can get whiplash today just watching the Dow go up and down!

            Down almost 400 again now - could be fascinating week to watch.
            I suspect that this was just a little tremor before the big one. I just have the eerie feeling something bigger and catastrophic is going to happen financially some time in September. Something that will have a global effect. I don't know exactly what, just that it won't be good. At. All!
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        • Profile picture of the author MissTerraK
          Originally Posted by Zodiax View Post

          The world economy will never crash, because it is controlled by the people who run society in the first place.
          You are naive, little grasshopper! LOL!


          Terra
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        • Profile picture of the author yukon
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          Originally Posted by Zodiax View Post

          The world economy will never crash, because it is controlled by the people who run society in the first place.
          You're right to a certain extent.

          While people panic today & sell out, I guarantee Warren Buffett is buying, buying, buying...

          When the stock market has drastic drops, it has nothing to do with long term successful businesses, Coca-Cola, Google, Baidu, etc... those businesses will still have multi-billion dollar profits after the stock market rebounds.

          Buffett doesn't think about buying a stock; he thinks about buying a business.
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    • Profile picture of the author MissTerraK
      Originally Posted by yukon View Post


      Excellent tune!

      But I have a feeling that was meant as a dig?

      Let me put it this way, the only way the world economy won't crash is if/when a one world monetary system is ushered in by the powers that be with/including the United Nations, The Catholic Church and the United States.

      That's just my opinion of course, but...


      Terra
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      • Profile picture of the author yukon
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        Originally Posted by MissTerraK View Post

        Excellent tune!

        But I have a feeling that was meant as a dig?

        Let me put it this way, the only way the world economy won't crash is if/when a one world monetary system is ushered in by the powers that be with/including the United Nations, The Catholic Church and the United States.

        That's just my opinion of course, but...


        Terra
        Lol, no dig, just music for the stock market.

        It will all rebound sooner or later, always has, even after the Great Depression.
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        • Profile picture of the author MissTerraK
          Originally Posted by yukon View Post

          Lol, no dig, just music for the stock market.

          It will all rebound sooner or later, always has, even after the Great Depression.
          Me thinks me think too much, haha!


          Terra
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