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HI

Any math experts out there?

I want to find the %of hitting 4 wins of a system that wins 70% of the time? i am afraid my math stopped about 20+ years ago.

Anyone?

Thank you
  • Profile picture of the author yukon
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    2.8%?




    ..........................
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    • Profile picture of the author trader99
      Originally Posted by yukon View Post

      2.8%?




      ..........................
      thanks my friend. So fast..may i see the equation for working this out?

      I am impressed.
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    • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
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  • Profile picture of the author alistair
    I find the question a bit confusing. Doesn't it depend on how many times you've played the system to get the four wins? And isn't the figure of 70% irrelevant?
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    • Profile picture of the author trader99
      Originally Posted by alistair View Post

      I find the question a bit confusing. Doesn't it depend on how many times you've played the system to get the four wins? And isn't the figure of 70% irrelevant?
      NO......it's 70%...over how long i have tested this is my business.

      If you can't answer it i'd prefer you didn't remark.

      Thanks
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      • Profile picture of the author alistair
        If you hit 4 wins out of 4 plays then it's a 100% hit rate. If you hit 5 wins out of 10 plays then it's a 50% hit rate. But that's all irrelevant if you've already worked out on average it's a 70% hit rate. Unless I'm missing something
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        • Profile picture of the author trader99
          Originally Posted by alistair View Post

          If you hit 4 wins out of 4 plays then it's a 100% hit rate. If you hit 5 wins out of 10 plays then it's a 50% hit rate. But that's all irrelevant if you've already worked out on average it's a 70% hit rate. Unless I'm missing something
          Then YOU simply failed to understand the question...


          HI
          Any math experts out there? I want to find the %of hitting 4 wins of a system that wins 70% of the time? i am afraid my math stopped about 20+ years ago. Anyone? Thank you
          If you fixed a coin so it landed on heads 7 out of ten times....what are the chances of getting 4 successive heads on a coin toss? Better?
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          • Profile picture of the author alistair
            Originally Posted by trader99 View Post

            Then YOU simply failed to understand the question...

            If you fixed a coin so it landed on heads 7 out of ten times....what are the chances of getting 4 successive heads on a coin toss? Better?
            Yeah that's better. Ok, I figured out the answer.

            Have a nice day.
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            • Profile picture of the author jimbo13
              It is 24%

              7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 = 2401/10000 => 24.01/100

              ie The Probability of 7/10 (70%) occurring 4 times.

              Dan
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              • Profile picture of the author trader99
                Originally Posted by jimbo13 View Post

                It is 24%

                7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 = 2401/10000 => 24.01/100

                ie The Probability of 7/10 (70%) occurring 4 times.

                Dan
                so what did Yukon say 3% for?

                thx....
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              • Profile picture of the author trader99
                Originally Posted by jimbo13 View Post

                It is 24%

                7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 = 2401/10000 => 24.01/100

                ie The Probability of 7/10 (70%) occurring 4 times.

                Dan
                Jimbo,
                how do you calculate sequences in the above probabilities?

                Say 3 winners and 1 losing..what are the chances of that?

                I need to brush up on my math again...

                Thx
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                • Profile picture of the author Jill Carpenter
                  Originally Posted by trader99 View Post

                  If you can't answer it i'd prefer you didn't remark.

                  Thanks
                  LOL

                  Here you can find all your answers.

                  Math.com - World of Math Online

                  Have a nice day.
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                  • Profile picture of the author jimbo13
                    Winning is 70% ie 70/100 => 7/10

                    Losing is 30% ie 30/100 => 3/10

                    Just multiply.

                    3 winners and 1 loser is 7/10 x 7/10 x 7/10 x 3/10 = 1029/10000 => 10.29/100 or approx 10%

                    I got this from GCSE Bitesize on BBC Website

                    Dan
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              • Profile picture of the author Claude Whitacre
                Originally Posted by jimbo13 View Post

                It is 24%

                7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10 = 2401/10000 => 24.01/100

                ie The Probability of 7/10 (70%) occurring 4 times.

                Dan
                Yup. You beat me posting the answer.
                And it doesn't matter if it's four in a row. Any random four chances at 70% will give the same answer.

                It's a math question, but to get the answer is really a matter of just reasoning it out.

                I did it in my head, and rounded the last number.

                .7X.7=.49...X.7=.343...X.7 (and this one took a minute)....2401. If the percentage were more than one digit, I wouldn't have been able to do it in my head.
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  • Profile picture of the author David Beroff
    Alistair's question was relevant; 4 wins out of 4 attempts is far different than 4 wins out of 40.

    Yukon possibly multiplied 0.7 by four, but that's unfortunately not the right approach.

    Jimbo13 is correct for the case of four wins out of four: 70%^4 = 24%.

    Jimbo13 is on the right path for three wins and a loss, but that's just for one permutation. There are actually four different ways to get three wins and a loss, so you'd multiply his answer by four: 4*(70%^3 * 30%) = 41%.

    Since there's an 85% chance that you're going to ask for the other three probabilities: Six ways to get 2W+2L: 6*(70%^2 * 30%^2) = 26%, four ways to get 1W+3L: 4*(70% * 30%^3) = 8%, one way to get 0W+4L: 30%^4 = 1%. Sanity check for all 16 permutations: 24% + 41% + 26% + 8% + 1% = 100%. (Yes, there are decimal places, but I'd bet 50/50 that the original 70% figure isn't likely to be accurate to more than one decimal place in the first place.)

    And Trader99 needs to chill when asking for help.
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    • Profile picture of the author Kay King
      If you can't answer it i'd prefer you didn't remark.
      Thank you, mods, for shutting down yet another troll or 12 yr old...whichever....
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      • Profile picture of the author Jill Carpenter
        [joke]

        A guy stumbles into an internet marketing forum and finds his way into the off topic area and starts asking math questions - expecting to get perfectly correct answers and no other commentary...

        [/joke]
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  • Profile picture of the author dandagger
    Originally Posted by trader99 View Post

    HI

    Any math experts out there?

    I want to find the %of hitting 4 wins of a system that wins 70% of the time? i am afraid my math stopped about 20+ years ago.

    Anyone?

    Thank you
    4 wins in a row?
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    Hope you have a prosperous 2017!

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  • Profile picture of the author yukon
    Banned
    I'm no math expert & I answered a math question at 5:30 AM so you get what you get.

    I have no idea how anyone would get 24% for OPs question. That doesn't even look remotely correct, even without a calculator.

    Why was OP banned? Is math the new religion?
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    • Profile picture of the author Dan Riffle
      Originally Posted by yukon View Post

      I'm no math expert & I answered a math question at 5:30 AM so you get what you get.

      I have no idea how anyone would get 24% for OPs question. That doesn't even look remotely correct, even without a calculator.

      Why was OP banned? Is math the new religion?
      It's correct. Here's a brief explanation of a similar circumstance:
      Finding the probability that some event A happens X times in a row or some other event B happens Y times in a row - Mathematics Stack Exchange
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    • Profile picture of the author David Beroff
      Originally Posted by yukon View Post

      I have no idea how anyone would get 24% for OPs question. That doesn't even look remotely correct, even without a calculator.
      The probability of something happening four times consecutively is the probability of it happening once (70%) to the fourth power. What's wrong with 24%?
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      • Profile picture of the author dandagger
        Originally Posted by David Beroff View Post

        The probability of something happening four times consecutively is the probability of it happening once (70%) to the fourth power. What's wrong with 24%?
        If he's asking for 4 wins in a row, then it's probably correct. But the way he phrased the questions seems like he may be asking for something else.
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        • Profile picture of the author David Beroff
          Originally Posted by dandagger View Post

          If he's asking for 4 wins in a row, then it's probably correct. But the way he phrased the questions seems like he may be asking for something else.
          The only ambiguity that I saw was in how long he was giving for the four wins to occur. But by not stating this, one is left with a choice of either the minimum period, (i.e., "in a row"), or the maximum, (i.e., "eventually"). Since the probability for the latter is (hopefully) obvious, (i.e., the probability for eventually getting four wins, given enough opportunities, approaches 100%), the only question left to be answered was for the former.
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          • Profile picture of the author irawr
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            Originally Posted by David Beroff View Post

            The only ambiguity that I saw was in how long he was giving for the four wins to occur. But by not stating this, one is left with a choice of either the minimum period, (i.e., "in a row"), or the maximum, (i.e., "eventually"). Since the probability for the latter is (hopefully) obvious, (i.e., the probability for eventually getting four wins, given enough opportunities, approaches 100%), the only question left to be answered was for the former.
            Wow. Well somebody can do math/statistics.

            4 in a row is .7*.7*.7*.7=.7^4=.2401

            Since the question was poorly asked and has multiple potential answers, I would have to refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...atical_symbols and I don't actually care anymore. I'm pretty sure I would have to use images to actually answer the question and yeah screw that.

            Also, if this is one of those "smart puzzles" for stupid people and the answer is some kind of trick that I don't know, that crap is absolutely lame and the people behind creating those should have their genitals removed.

            "Did you know that 1+1=0?" Dude were speaking english not binary and your insane proof involves an assumption somewhere that is incorrect because the numbers change contexts and anybody who works with numbers in those contexts knows not to mix them together because they have a congruent understanding of what those numbers actually represent.
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            • Profile picture of the author David Beroff
              Originally Posted by irawr View Post

              Wow. Well somebody can do math/statistics.
              Thank you.

              Originally Posted by irawr View Post

              Also, if this is one of those "smart puzzles" for stupid people and the answer is some kind of trick that I don't know....
              I don't think there was any trickery intended here. The OP was a bit curt, and was subsequently (temp?) banned, but I think his original question was perfectly sincere. I don't even think it was posed poorly, and it certainly didn't use any symbols. His later clarification using (biased) coin tosses communicated his original intent pretty clearly.
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    • Profile picture of the author Jill Carpenter
      Originally Posted by yukon View Post


      Why was OP banned? Is math the new religion?
      (video removed due to my paranoia bout getting a kick for posting a video about math and religion) lol
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    • Profile picture of the author sbucciarel
      Banned
      Originally Posted by yukon View Post

      Why was OP banned? Is math the new religion?
      It's a mathematical probability that if you post in OT and act like an assmonkey, that someone will check out your other posts and notice that you completely hijacked someone else's Joint Venture thread because you didn't want to wait for approval or couldn't get approval for your own.
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