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Will the Internet crash?

by highhopes
21 replies
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this very interesting debate runs on...comments from this article point to a very real problem for the future.

Like an overinflated balloon, the Internet is at risk of breaking because of the amount of bandwidth online. A new study from Nemertes Research calls on U.S. ISPs to increase their broadband infrastructure over the next few years by tens of billions of dollars. Well, for starters, who is going to pay for this? And will it be taken care of before it reaches a crisis level?
The study says that more cash is needed--between $42 billion to $55 billion on infrastructure on top the $72 billion being spent now. If nothing changes, the increased traffic will slow down the Internet and cause brownouts, much like electrical brownouts. "Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years," the study said.


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  • Profile picture of the author garyv
    I don't know if I see that happening. If there's a demand, the supply will take care of itself. Even if that means an increase in cost. As long as the Government doesn't allow a monopoly, then customers will flock to those providers that provide the bandwidth.
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    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
      Originally Posted by garyv View Post

      I don't know if I see that happening. If there's a demand, the supply will take care of itself. Even if that means an increase in cost. As long as the Government doesn't allow a monopoly, then customers will flock to those providers that provide the bandwidth.
      But no providers have the trillions to spend on increasing bandwidth! I think billions is a MASSIVE underestimate because you have to rip up streets, have all the labor, and all the materials to have the resources to support it. THEY are probably stating the ONGOING costs once the telephone and cable companies have the resources to sell. And an ISP doesn't have anything anyone wants to see. NOBODY cares how fast the ISP is!

      Yeah, I know, you'll say "BUT THEY ADVERTISE!", "BUT I CARED!", etc...

      Think about it. Visitors don't care how quickly you can access comcast or AT&T. What YOU care about is Google, AMAZON, etc... So the ISP being slow merely limits the POTENTIAL. If they became 1000 times faster over night, they wouldn't seem any faster.

      And the ones further down the line, like Google, will be the most affected by increased demands since they will be hit from all over.

      But the internet over all will merely slow down. Unless there is a launch, popular TV show ad, etc... a particular site is likely to have hits distributed such that they won't crash. Preventing the crashes would require a better setup than currently exists, or better systems. That could take another decade. It has been over 40 years, almost 20 of that on the internet, and little has changed!

      Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author hireava
    An interesting article at the New York Times reports that the Internet is starting to slow down due to heavy amounts of video clips and movies, social networks and multiplayer games.
    The article says one source estimates YouTube consumed as much bandwidth in 2007 as the entire Internet did in 2000 and reports that a research firm projected that user demand for the Internet could outpace network capacity by 2011.
    What I find most interesting about this is the idea that movies are going to one day be 100% digital and that is the reason people aren’t going to adopt Blu-ray movies. Well, if that is what you think you are going to be waiting a while. They need to figure out how to manage the Internet as it is now before we can start streaming billions of movies to billions of people all over the world in high definition.
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    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
      Originally Posted by hireava View Post

      An interesting article at the New York Times reports that the Internet is starting to slow down due to heavy amounts of video clips and movies, social networks and multiplayer games.
      The article says one source estimates YouTube consumed as much bandwidth in 2007 as the entire Internet did in 2000 and reports that a research firm projected that user demand for the Internet could outpace network capacity by 2011.
      What I find most interesting about this is the idea that movies are going to one day be 100% digital and that is the reason people aren't going to adopt Blu-ray movies. Well, if that is what you think you are going to be waiting a while. They need to figure out how to manage the Internet as it is now before we can start streaming billions of movies to billions of people all over the world in high definition.
      I have been saying that for YEARS! YEAH, youtube is just TOO big! They now offer HIRES and longer videos, and that is BOUND to take more bandwidth. And I know there was a major infrastructure overhaul in T.O. CA, and parts of LA, about 10 years ago. It is NASTY ripping up the streets, etc... And my father moved his point of demarcation to get more lines. That required cutting into the DRIVEWAY! LUCKILY, he never wanted to do it again, so he filled the slot with BRICKS, and NO concrete. STILL, it could cost him over $1000 to have someone else lay new lines. HECK, MY home was mad cat5 compatible, and that is ALREADY obsolete! MOST homes AREN'T even cat 5 compatible.

      Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author NickEllisTV
    I just think with all the money the Internet makes(YouTube partners, advertising platforms owned by the biggest websites, and us internet marketers!) that they might ask for money, but if people are making livings, if not a little extra money, from the internet, then I think they can fork out a portion to keep it going
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    • Profile picture of the author Tina Golden
      Originally Posted by NickEllisTV View Post

      I just think with all the money the Internet makes(YouTube partners, advertising platforms owned by the biggest websites, and us internet marketers!) that they might ask for money, but if people are making livings, if not a little extra money, from the internet, then I think they can fork out a portion to keep it going
      I fork out quite a bit to keep it going.

      I pay for my cable internet connection every month.
      I pay for my domain registrations every year.
      I pay for my hosting every month.
      I pay for the electricity to run my computer.

      Isn't that what all that is for?

      Tina
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      • Profile picture of the author seasoned
        Originally Posted by TMG Enterprises View Post

        I fork out quite a bit to keep it going.

        I pay for my cable internet connection every month.
        I pay for my domain registrations every year.
        I pay for my hosting every month.
        I pay for the electricity to run my computer.

        Isn't that what all that is for?

        Tina
        1. Pays PART of the cable companies costs, but you INCREASE bandwidth costs!
        2. Pays VERISIGN and a couple companies, doesn't affect the internet AT ALL!
        3. Pays PART of their costs, but you INCREASE bandwidth costs!
        4. HUH? Non-sequitor, doesn't relate to ANYTHING but YOUR ability to get on, but you INCREASE bandwidth costs!

        So NOPE!

        Historically, ISPs and services, as part of their monthly costs, have paid a VERY low cost for high bandwidth connections. These connections can sometimes SWAMP the local connection hub. SO, if they pump a LOT of data through it may be able to overwhelm that SWITCH! With MORE people having MORE systems that do MORE things, and they use MORE bandwidth to do each thing, it is just getting ridiculous. ORIGINALLY, it was all text, low volume syncs, and an occasional down/upload. THEN they had http servers that had text, and the volume went up. THEY they had small graphics. THEN bigger graphics. NOW they have LARGE audio, video, etc... And now people HERE are asking how to allow people download GIGABYTES of information! The CADILLAC of high bandwith USED to be T1! 1GB takes almost 2 HOURS on a T1, if that is the ONLY thing!! RICH people might have gotten a T3 which reduced that to almost 3 minutes!

        IMAGINE! A line that USED to be used by LARGE ISPs is now one many may complain is too slow. The 3 minutes is with ONE connection. If you had 60 users do the same thing at the same time, it would take almost 3 HOURS! A few seconds delay on text is no big deal, and unlikely to happen because you have a window of a few seconds where it may be affected. A few HOURS delay IS a big deal and likely because you could have a window of HOURS where it may be affected.

        BTW MUCH of the internet is loaded with systems that handle either about 1/4 of a T3(10bt) or a bit more than twice a T3(100bt). I think the 1000bt is still not THAT common, but STILL.... A 1000bt CAN transmit that 1GB file in about 10 seconds, but what is the likelyhood that downline systems can support 1000bt? Let me tell you. It is roughly *****ZERO*****! 1000bt is GREAT between local systems, but it is unlikely you can get that throughput through the internet, to one system.

        Steve
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        • Profile picture of the author JDArchitecture
          Didn't you hear? It's gonna crash 12/21/2012.


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  • Profile picture of the author rondo
    The Australian government plans to spend 43 Billion on a fibre optic "National Broadband Network". That's $5000 per household!


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  • Profile picture of the author DavidBrown
    If one day the internet crash, the world stops. But surely it will never happen, because governments do not want another crisis. One is enough right?
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  • Profile picture of the author Vincenzo Oliva
    As you may have read the US Government is passing new rules to give itself the ability to SHUT DOWN the internet for what they can deem as a "national security threat".
    So if a Government website gets hacked by some teenager in China we all can be out of business indefinitely. Brush up on your Direct Mail skills ;-)
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  • Profile picture of the author dwave
    WOW- you guys really believe all this crap. The internet works as a direct to your website, so if your web server can't take it then it goes down, but if your google making billions you will be able to buy more space. And do you guys really think that Google, youtube, and FB will let the internet crash and stop there money flow? Where do you guys get this stuff form? Also the last post on the government shutting it down. RIGHT if that happened the economy would crash even worse than it is now.

    Yes I'm ranting, cause all this makes no sense.
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  • Profile picture of the author dwave
    And one more thing you don't need to rip up roads to have internet have you heard of space?
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    • Profile picture of the author rondo
      Originally Posted by dwave View Post

      And one more thing you don't need to rip up roads to have internet have you heard of space?
      That's the debate here in Oz right now. Fibre optic or Satellite?

      What do guys think, especially for a large but sparsely populated country like Australia?
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      • Profile picture of the author seasoned
        Originally Posted by rondo View Post

        That's the debate here in Oz right now. Fibre optic or Satellite?

        What do guys think, especially for a large but sparsely populated country like Australia?
        Do what cable companies, and some countries do. Use satellite to get it to a local area, and connect closer clients with fiber(Spelled the american way for you know who!) optic.

        Steve
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  • Profile picture of the author garyv
    Any form of satellite connection I've seen, still required a hard connection to get a decent upload rate. Right now fiber-optic is much faster and can handle a lot more than anything else.
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    • Profile picture of the author seasoned
      Originally Posted by garyv View Post

      Any form of satellite connection I've seen, still required a hard connection to get a decent upload rate. Right now fiber-optic is much faster and can handle a lot more than anything else.
      I don't know, satellites can be pretty fast, at least as a whole. They CAN have a lot of channels. And laying cable can be expensive, difficult, and inconvenient.

      Steve
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      • Profile picture of the author highhopes
        I can think of quite a few countries in financial turmoil at this moment of time....and it supposed to get worse.
        The statement made last year by the Rockerfella, invasion or threats of security could be a good excuse to shut it all down????

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  • Profile picture of the author Gary Pettit
    I remember my brother saying (long ago), "The internet cannot crash. The way it's constructed and networked, losing any portion of the internet would not take the whole thing down."
    And I was reminded of other times in history when someone said, "It can't go/fall down."
    The Titanic. The Tower of Babel. The Stock Market. The Bubonic Plague. The Roman Empire.
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    • Profile picture of the author highhopes
      Ha ha well said Sparky...it just about describes the world at large....`IT will never Sink`



      Originally Posted by sparkie2260 View Post

      I remember my brother saying (long ago), "The internet cannot crash. The way it's constructed and networked, losing any portion of the internet would not take the whole thing down."
      And I was reminded of other times in history when someone said, "It can't go/fall down."
      The Titanic. The Tower of Babel. The Stock Market. The Bubonic Plague. The Roman Empire.
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