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Simple Math, Most People Screw Up & Lose Big $$

by af7850
14 replies
Ok... this seems so simple, but people screw it up all the time. Can you answer this correctly?

If I mail out 100 marketing pieces and receive 1 response, what is my response rate?


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#big #lose #math #people #screw #simple
  • Profile picture of the author DPM70
    Your response rate depends on how fast you received the replies (depending on semantics).

    Your response was 1%
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    • Profile picture of the author af7850
      Originally Posted by DPM70 View Post


      Your response was 1%
      This is what I'm getting at.

      If you flip a coin four times with the goal of getting "heads", and the coin lands heads-side-up three times, would you think that you can expect a success rate of 75%? Of course not.

      Yet people will "test" their marketing strategies in the smallest, cheapest way possible and trust that their results give reliable data.

      If you get one response from 100 pieces, your response rate is unknown. Maybe you'll actually get only 1 response per thousand, and you happened to find that one respondent in the first hundred? Perhaps you'll get four more responses in the next hundred, and the first try was unusually light?

      When I ask business owners about their current marketing, it is all too common that they rely on poor data; this is to be expected. But when they have a "professional" advising them to bet the farm on marketing services based on poorly-contrived inconclusive "proof", ... Well to me this is almost criminal.

      This post is basically the response I offer to potential clients when discussing the fault in their marketing conversion data, or when explaining why I won't develop and test marketing pieces on a shoestring budget. I hope that it helps you in displaying the value your services provide to your prospects.

      PS. DPM70, I know that that was a bit of a loaded question. Thanks for taking the time to answer. I'm not trying to throw you under the bus, just wanted to make a point.
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  • Profile picture of the author James English
    While I somewhat agree with you...math is math. 1 response out of 100 is still a 1% response no matter how you spin it.

    While I do agree that it doesn't accurately reflect what his response will ultimately be if he sends out 1,000 pieces, he still received 1 response out of 100 (1%).

    By your definition above, no one can ever figure a true response rate. People are people, and as predictable as they may seem sometimes, things can change. Not trying to be rude, just adding to the conversation
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    • Profile picture of the author ronr
      It's like the guy who sends out 10 emails or makes 10 calls and gets one client, then creates a WSO about it and everyone expects to get a 10% response.

      Math says his response rate was 10% and it was for that given time. However the only way to get the real response rate and projected results you want is to do it for a much, much longer time, then do the math.

      Ron
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    • Profile picture of the author Daniel LaRusso
      Originally Posted by Trent English View Post

      While I somewhat agree with you...math is math. 1 response out of 100 is still a 1% response no matter how you spin it.

      While I do agree that it doesn't accurately reflect what his response will ultimately be if he sends out 1,000 pieces, he still received 1 response out of 100 (1%).

      By your definition above, no one can ever figure a true response rate. People are people, and as predictable as they may seem sometimes, things can change. Not trying to be rude, just adding to the conversation
      '
      I'm with Trent on this one. I see your point on this, but you're talking about two different statistical concepts - sample size and response rate. The point you're trying to make is that you can't make an accurate assumption about a larger populatino based on the small sample size you have.

      The math isn't going to lie - it's a 1% response rate. The statistics are that the 1% response rate was based on a sample size that does not represent a larger population.

      One of my required readings in graduate school back in th 90s was a little book called "How to Lie With Statistics". They made the same point you're making in the book. There was a study where they said that AIDS infection in the United States quardupled from 1985 - 1990. Well, it turns out they based this on a small town where in the first time period, one person had AIDS, in the second, 4 people had AIDS. You can't extrapolate those results based on a tiny sample size to a much larger population.
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    • Profile picture of the author socialentry
      Hey John,do you actually change your tone of voice to match the different prospect when you're testing the script out?

      I was thinking about this for the last month because right now I don't have a clear procedure for testing out my script.

      Do you keep stats for each rebuttal also?

      for me it is difficult at least at this point, to keep meaningful stats, because perhaps I am not keeping good control, but the conversation usually goes all over the place.

      I listen to myself talk and oftentime I think "hmmm, this doesn't seem to fly so well" about a rebuttal after I reach 10 prospects or so, is this the time to change or is it too early?

      How large is really large? Because right now, over 400 calls, I reach maybe 30 contacts max (my lists are that bad)

      I know that a good script will get me places. I worked at a place where the script was a whopping 5 pages and VERY surprisingly it worked. I could have brought a soundboard with prerecorded soundclips, it would not have made a difference. It was a one-way track.

      That's my end goal but I just don't know how to get there.
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      • Profile picture of the author John Durham
        Originally Posted by socialentry View Post

        Hey John,do you actually change your tone of voice to match the different prospect when you're testing the script out?
        I just try to go with wherever my voice is that day. Sometimes I will wake up and I dont have any bass in my voice... So I cant be "autoritative"...So I go with a different tone and try to go with the "marriage councilor" type tone... and it works better for me.

        Whatever you are feeling that day , try to WEAR it. Some people can dress like a bum and they look like a bum trying their best to look nice, others know how to "wear it" and they look like they are going with the "bum look".

        Go with the tone that most naturally fits where you are at, so you dont come off like you are "trying".

        I have a good post about this. Hang let me find it.

        Here you go Social, it's hidden down at the bottom few paragraphs of the OP in this thread:

        http://www.warriorforum.com/offline-...rting-now.html
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      • Profile picture of the author kenmichaels
        Originally Posted by socialentry View Post

        Hey John,do you actually change your tone of voice to match the different prospect when you're testing the script out?

        Look up mimicking and or Mirroring.

        It is a super strong, vital part of sales.

        TBH, if i did not know how to mirror, my sales would probably be 1/10th of what they are.
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        • Profile picture of the author John Durham
          Originally Posted by kenmichaels View Post

          Look up mimicking and or Mirroring.

          It is a super strong, vital part of sales.

          TBH, if i did not know how to mirror, my sales would probably be 1/10th of what they are.
          Yup. The beginning of my fondness for Ken started with one word: You had me at "bro", bro.

          Ken speaks the language of brotherly love when he talks to me, and that is where Im at man! SOLD!

          If you ever hear me rise up with indignation, even THAT is love in some sense.
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  • Profile picture of the author bizgrower
    This is a good post/point.

    It is a 1% response rate for this sample or test.

    And, as I think DPM70 was alluding to, is there an
    expiration time for this test? If there is one response
    in 30 days, then your response is rate is 1% for this test.
    Another response within 60 days, then your response rate is 2% and so
    on - unless you are talking about something with an expiration date.

    Then, of course, there would be a series of mailings to see the trend
    for this piece and compare to other pieces... And is response a sale or inquiry?

    You're right, many business owners don't get it right. "I tried that
    once and it didn't work." Or, they keep doing newspaper advertising
    because they are familiar with that and don't try another method -
    even if the response from newspaper ads is not the great.
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  • Profile picture of the author John Durham
    What a great post.

    Understanding the numbers is so important, for instance in cold calling, if I say you will get a 2% sales conversion, then people make a hundred calls and dont close anything, they say it doesnt work. Thats why pro cold callers make 3-400 calls in a session, because your number doesnt always come up in the first 100 numbers, and then sometimes it does.

    Understanding numbers and how the averages work is the key to ALL sales success.

    Sometimes you can get 4 sales in a hundred calls... Still, it's not time to scale out based on that formula unless it works the same for ten days in a row. It isnt going to always work the same in a hundred numbers, but over 400 it should average out.

    Thats why its called the law of "LARGE" numbers.

    There are so many nuances to it too. For instance; when you change your approach you basically start the law over at the beginning.

    The law basically says that when a certain action, is repeated in a certain manner, it produces a certain predicable outcome, over a certain amount of numbers.

    You can scale out on having established that formula based on the action you are repeating (pitch).

    Otherwise, numbers cannot be predicted, duplication is not possible, and and consistent outcomes are not possible.

    Fly by the seat of your pants = Uncertain outcomes
    Verbatim Pitch= Certain outcomes.

    Only very seasoned pros can call their shots without a verbatim pitch, and formula, because they know their fomulas so well that they can mix and match them. You can't call yourself a pro if you cant call your shots.

    You cant scale, if you cant predict your outcomes based on a proven formula.

    Trust me, thousands of call centers who succeed on verbatim pitches are NOT wrong.

    Sure, you can hit and miss otherwise, but you cant count heads, and accurately predict your numbers by it daily. It would be impossible to make projections.

    -John
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    • Profile picture of the author eniggma
      I've been guilty of that thinking many times myself. If it ain't working after 100 clicks or calls something is wrong or it ain't workn.

      Thx for clarifying. I will keep this in mind especially when I start cold calling for suppliers.

      Originally Posted by John Durham View Post

      What a great post.

      Understanding the numbers is so important, for instance in cold calling, if I say you will get a 2% sales conversion, then people make a hundred calls and dont close anything, they say it doesnt work. Thats why pro cold callers make 3-400 calls in a session, because your number doesnt always come up in the first 100 numbers, and then sometimes it does.

      Understanding numbers and how the averages work is the key to ALL sales success.

      Sometimes you can get 4 sales in a hundred calls... Still, it's not time to scale out based on that formula unless it works the same for ten days in a row. It isnt going to always work the same in a hundred numbers, but over 400 it should average out.

      Thats why its called the law of "LARGE" numbers.

      There are so many nuances to it too. For instance; when you change your approach you basically start the law over at the beginning.

      The law basically says that when a certain action, is repeated in a certain manner, it produces a certain predicable outcome, over a certain amount of numbers.

      You can scale out on having established that formula based on the action you are repeating (pitch).

      Otherwise, numbers cannot be predicted, duplication is not possible, and and consistent outcomes are not possible.

      Fly by the seat of your pants = Uncertain outcomes
      Verbatim Pitch= Certain outcomes.

      Only very seasoned pros can call their shots without a verbatim pitch, and formula, because they know their fomulas so well that they can mix and match them. You can't call yourself a pro if you cant call your shots.

      You cant scale, if you cant predict your outcomes based on a proven formula.

      Trust me, thousands of call centers who succeed on verbatim pitches are NOT wrong.

      Sure, you can hit and miss otherwise, but you cant count heads, and accurately predict your numbers by it daily. It would be impossible to make projections.

      -John
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  • Profile picture of the author SashaLee
    Hi there,

    Nobody has mentioned the words profit or return on investment.

    100 pieces may be too small to test out a campaign, but there's still not enough detail to determine what the actual response rate could have been. If you sit an wait you'll get what you get.

    Was a follow-up phone call conducted? This would increase response.

    Were the 99 non-responders remailed? This would increase response.

    It also depends on what you're selling. There's a big difference if your sale is a $50/month SEO package or a $1,500 consult once a month.

    The question, as asked, was answered in the second post, but it's misleading to others who might be trying to learn this stuff.

    All the best,

    Sasha
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  • Profile picture of the author DPM70
    Forgive me, Daniel, but I think you just unknowingly hit on a new niche.."larger populatino".

    Conjures up all sorts of cash-in possibilities in my mind!

    Apologies again for pointing out the accidental misspelling.
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