Is The Recession Over?

In real human terms the recession is just starting as unemployment sets in and stores are not able to stay open.

The recession is not over and most experts predict more of the same until somewhere in mid 2010. A few rebel economists have predicted a major depression, though I disagree with them. The stock market is up 30% from when to when? A rising stock market does not necessariliy translate to much unless there is a sustainable and consist upward pattern. Right now there's quite a bit of volatility of which seasoned investors can take advantage from, but not the average investor or individual.

I think the domino effect is still continuing in many areas. We've got a ways to go before we've recovered from this. Sadly, there are many who will never recover because they've lost so much in their 401k, 403b, IRAs, or variable annuities and they don't have the time horizon to recoup their investment losses. My heart really goes out to those people. This is another reason why I'm a huge proponent of personal and business financial planning, something a lot of entrepreneurs neglect.

My seven pesos,

RoD

It's my opinion that the recession will progress into borderline depression or full out depression. I'm the last person on the Earth who wants this to happen, but with the way that inflation has been increasing, the way that prices have still gone up for commodities, and the increasing national debt only guarantee that our economy will take some more major hits.

Although the stock market has been doing well recently I think it will fluctuate up and down but with an overall trend of going downward for a few years. Most predict a continual decrease in the market until around late 2010, I would give this the absolute earliest time for a turnaround, with a more likely turnaround in 2012. But I don't think we have seen the worst of it yet for sure. And I hope we can weather the storm and keep our sanity as a country (America and the rest of the world) in the meantime.

I dont think its over.. I've been a realtor for years and I still maintain my license and keep up with whats going on in the market. We have a huge waive for new foreclosures thats gonna hit the market this year. And I mean HUGE. Who knows what it'll do to the economy. I've also talked to several of the asset managers (the people that manage the banks inventor) and they are doubling and tripling their eviction staff in preparation. UGH

This is a suckers rally. Unless the US economy radically changes its structure there is no way it will become what it once was. Only bubbles could change that, but bubbles like we've seen, burst.

Huge trade deficits and big government spending are certainly not the way to change it. The US hasn't had real economical growth for more than a decade. I'm talking about growth from the creation of new products and services and increase in productivity, not bubble induced "growth".

Unless Americans put in their heads that to spend money you need to make money, nothing will change.

Tyrus

To play devils advocate - if the recession was at a bottom and on the verge of being over, would the masses know it?

It would be over if the media would stop the scare
tactics and the government would stop trying to
drive us deeper in their quest to get more system feeders.

But that's just my opinion.

It would be the shortest recession in history if it is over.

I don't think it's even gotten started yet and Obama's massive spending will just make it worse.

What could be more stupid than trying to spend your way out of a finacial problem?

As long as the gov'ts of the world keep creating money out of thin air, we are not at the end of this.
Everything they have done has been fake with nothing solid to back it up, so there is no way it can survive.

Mark

There was a recession?

There's definitely signs that the economy is coming back up again. Looks like Obama's efforts are really working. I can't ask for more as long as my family and friends have jobs again.

I'm seeing evidence of a loosening of panic in my local
economy. We know that any real recession will ease-up
when people stop panicking and start spending some money,
so it's the thaw of the emotional freeze at work.

This is not to say that there aren't real pain situations
for workers who've been laid-off and whole local economies
drying-up for good - just that average consumers are
realizing they are gonna survive and they cannot put-off
all spending forever.

Recessions may last longer following the civil unrest seen with the LA Riots.

Government spending will help keep the peace but at the price of extending the recession. I hate Government spending like most but without it we may see some major destruction of cities with the possibility of rioting.

the economy is in no shape of form going back to where it needs to be just yet, but Internet marketers are some of the last people affected by the recession

The recession won't be over until unemployment numbers drop back down, and that is going to be a long, slow painful process...

There really was no recession online...

As an investor I assure you that this recession is far from over. With out bringing in the technicals from how I determine what investments to make. Lets have a look at most recessions first. List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From that link above you will see that every recession we have been in has started due to one thing or another. Lets take the great depression for instance. This started because of our financial system melting down. A mix between this and a massive drought brought our economy to its demise. Which lasted 10 years till 1932.

Now lets go down the list a little further to the 1973. This recession was cause by an oil crisis and lasted 2 years. Which really wasn't and oil crisis but due to how everything was it was considered an oil crisis.

Now also looking at the chart I want you to look at every recession that started due to a financial melt down or financial collapse. You will see that each and every recession that started due to a financial collapse lasted longer then the other recessions. These lasted on average 2 years longer then any other recession.

Now lets take the current recession or as I would like to say the greatest depression. This originally started due to surging oil prices. Those surging oil prices where just a mask though from what was really lurking behind the scenes. We then find that majority of the banks that where making loans where making nothing but bad loans. For atleast a 6 year period in time. The millions in loans they made through this time well over half where bad loans. We then started seeing the derivitives that these banks where invested in start to plumet. Those dirivitives where the only thing keeping most of those banks alive.

Unemployment is at current 8.9% and climbing. Oil is back on the rise with gold. The way I see this is that if most recessions lasted 2 years. Where as most finacial recessions lasted more then 2 years. With the current recession only being around for what most would say is a year. We have another few years of down time.

So the worste part may however be over we are still not going to see any growth in the us for another couple of years. So from my stand point no this puppy is far from over. I have done alot of research on this matter. I am currently bullish in the market as well. However this can change at any moment I just wait for that one day when this upturn is over. I then sell off all of my investments sit back and wait for the next run up.

So how do you read it .... 23 out of 26 so far are doubtfull of a recovery in the making, rather that the general state worsens....how bad, and where will people turn when they run out of cash and the governments largesse. I believe you brother have a big target stenciled on your back.

The same fools that told us we were NOT in a recession are now saying we are finally recovering.

I see a lot of weather men in the financial media and not enough 'honest' financial experts that will speak the truth.

I really doubt it's over.

The government is borrowing 50 Cents for every $1 spent. Large companies are still laying off people... No. I don't think it's going to be over for a while.

these a$$holes are just bumping up the stocks high enough til they sell all their shares and screw the naive and greedy americans who want to make a quick buck.

dont invest in stocks period.

No the recession is not over. With the amount of money the US gov't is printing off and the amount of debt we are accumulating, the market is having a bear rally. Unemployment will continue to rise along with inflation and interest rates. The govt just place a bandaid over the problems instead of letting them fix theirselves.

I agree with the above comment, its a bear market rally in the stocks at the moment. Even Warren Buffet commented it was a bear market rally and only a matter of time before they fall back down. How can the recession be over with so much unemployment still still to come...?

The coldest day of the year usually happens some time after the shortest day of the year because it takes some time for the shortened exposure of the sun to be felt in the weather.

I think this recession is going to be like that. It's good to hear that there are indicators of recovery but for many people things are going to get worse before the effects of the recovery trickle down to create jobs. Sadly, in some industries the jobs are not going to come back (I think they will have gone overseas or online).

It's not over yet...

It will stay to depress more and more people for probably next one complete year. Then it will be countered and the economy will step in a new era where every one will feel the cool breeze blowing, pleasant sunlights every where...

Till then keep your self fastly belted to your present jobs...

In the UK the recession is still hitting hard. I have friends who go into work not knowing if they will be there the next day. When you go into town the number of boarded up shops is a real sign of how bad it is. I've not seen it this bad.

Its not over....till the fat lady sings!...and she has not stepped onto the stage yet...unfortunately...

I hope she does soon...but not yet.

This is so funny.

Back in March, I posted about Citigroup selling for a dollar and AIG selling for like 3 for a dollar. I jokingly proposed that McDonald's could save Wall St by offering stocks on their dollar menu. Of course those stocks went up like 300% shortly after that post.

Now I post about the possibility of the recession being over and right on queue, the stock market starts going down.

I'm becoming quite the Contrarian indicator LOL. If I keep this up, they're going to revoke my CFA designation.

As with anything you must know how it happened to truly comprehend the subject.

As some people stated before this whole mess has been building for years, signs were shown in late October 2007! But the feds quickly 'stimulated' the economy for awhile.

As stated before also, we've been building a massive bubble for the past 7 or more years. When signs of weekness show the feds try and make the bubble last longer, the sad reality is that it will only grow bigger and burst. And it has.

I'm not going to try and be an expert on what has happened, what is going to happen, or what will happen to America altogether but I do recommend everyone(yes everyone) to go and buy the book 'the trillion dollar meltdown.

It expalins how this has all happened, and it is really quite scary. It is based on the past and on facts not on the future and theories.

We are on another "mini bubble" now, as Ron said from(I believe) january-now we have seen a increase in the overall market by 30%.

We all know this won't last, we all know there are many hurrdles left. But again the Feds are pumping money into a system that can't just be "fixed" and giving everyone the false belief that things are all better now.

We're scared to endure a recession, but in reality we simply have to.

Foreign investors, think hedge funds with billions, are shying away from American investment and moving into more investments in EAST Euorpe and Africa. Japan is the only country left that is buying a growing amount (more and more every year) of U.S treasury bonds, but even they are slowly buying less now. Not that the bonds aren't appealing, but that there is far more money to be made investing in other sources.

Again I'm not an expert, as you can probably tell, but I do urge everyone to go out and buy the book and read it. It will shed light on the facts and hopefully make you re-think just how safe the economy is.

Zach

P.S- Just because the market is down does not mean there is no opportunity. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed I quickly bought the stock for literally 3 and 7 dollars and watched in go up 250%+ in the next few days.
The same thing happened to AIG etc etc...

As for me all my money is now parked in gold and silver certificates. Anyone who thinks your money is safe in the bank I incourage you to think again. Your 'money' is a currency. A currency that is protected by a country very deep in debt. The dollar has already fallen quite a bit and will honestly only continue to fall. (atleast in my mind)

P.P.S- I don't mean to sound very negative, like otheres have pointed out there is still lots of money to be made. The rules of money may change but that should never stop you from finding differnt ways to grow your profits.

People react based on their perception of reality and not reality.

This also goes to why one's attitude toward life is more important than about anything else.

Do you think the light at the end of the tunnel is the end of the tunnel or a train bearing down on you?

This is why I like people like Dave Ramsey who suggests one is better off being financially independent of any dependence on government, or other people (like family or friends). That's why I love his expression "I am not participating in this recession".

So is the recession over?
What is the definition of a 'recession being over'?

Odds are 'no' by most peoples' definition. People often define recession by what is happening to them or family and friends.

And then you have the possibility of inflation coming. And having had lived through the high costs of borrowing in the Carter years, I hope those percentages never show up again.

I make necessary adjustments in dealing with various demograpic groups I sell to, but online business beats working for someone else and wondering about some elses' decisions. Multiple income streams really work!!

I'm so grateful I work for myself. I'm thankful I live in the USA. And I'm not participating in the recession or any other!!

It's not over... We are not even at the bottom.

This is financial forecasting reports from Bob Chapman from theinternationalforecasting.com I am subscribers and you should subscribe to his newsletter... He saved me lots of money.

050909(3)IF.pdf

051309(4)IF.pdf

You know what tickles me the most is that during the great depression. We had an alternative which was called the cold standard. We now do not even have that. Gold is basically worthless. Yet We find ourselves investing in it because of othe countries still having some type of gold standard. I also still believe that the amero is going to be the new us currency. Why else would we trade over half of are debt with china and other countries for the amero if we where not planingto deminish the dollar. I also beleave that before years end or early next year we are going to be going through a peoples revolution or another civil war in the us. This is just my honest oppionion I have had a problem with our government since I was 11 I never registered to vote until this year and for good reasons. I mean come on how can you vote for a bush an obama a mccain and all of the other idiots we have voted for or against. Our goverment is the source of the problem the sooner we realize this the better of this country will be. Why do you think we have had 8 years of none stop war since 2001 then prior to that 8 years off away from war. Then 8years before the war for those 8 years. Why don't we jsut stay the hell out of it and let these third world retards wipe each otheroff the map. Then we no longer have to fight for their oil or other resources.

I think it has def bottoed out, i work in the oil industry as my main job. Alot more optimisim now in the oil price and outlook.

Hopefully all the lessons have been learnt and none of our children have to see anything like this again.....