21st Aug 2020, 12:21 PM | #1301 |
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21st Aug 2020, 12:40 PM | #1302 | ||
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This virus (I know you know all this) is far more vicious. And it stays....and the damage lingers...almost like a disease. And if my wife gets it, she has about a 15% chance of dying....not one in a thousand, like the flu.
Just closing those select businesses would, I think, solve much of the spread. But the vast majority of businesses don't require people to sit close to each other, or sing, yell, chant, or breath heavily. OK, full disclosure, my customers do breath heavily, when I chase them around the store grabbing for their credit card. OK, fuller disclosure...my wife chases them. I just block the exits. Use what you've got. | ||
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21st Aug 2020, 12:46 PM | #1303 | |
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Tell whoever wrote this post for you that she did a good job. | |
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21st Aug 2020, 12:47 PM | #1304 | |||
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21st Aug 2020, 01:05 PM | #1305 | |
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We know. | |
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21st Aug 2020, 03:25 PM | #1306 | |
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It's a myth. In the US, there were about 4,000 suicides a month before the coronavirus. The suicide rate went up a few percent. And so did the rate of domestic violence calls, and the rate of deaths by overdose...again, by a few percent. But those increases (actual numbers of deaths) are dwarfed by the decrease in the number of deaths by almost every other means. Traffic deaths are down because people drive less. Deaths due to alcohol (like crashes) are way down because people aren't driving drunk as often. Stupid deaths during leisure activities is down (like skiing accidents) because fewer people are out participating in these sports. Murders are down, robberies are down, break ins are down. There are fewer heart attacks (mostly because of less stressful activities). So the end result is, less people are dying from other causes, more than enough to make up for the suicide increase and the increase in deaths by drug overdose and domestic violence. The actions taken to stop the virus is saving lives, in addition to saving the lives that would be lost to the virus. So, the idea that more people are dying is a myth. And there are even less people dying of pneumonia, or the flu...because more people are wearing masks. To be honest, I haven't done the math (because some figures I didn't have) to see whether the deaths from Covid are more than the lives saved by the precautions taken. Anyway, the point is, wearing masks and shutting down businesses isn't more deadly than the pandemic. Not by a mile. | |
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21st Aug 2020, 04:34 PM | #1307 | ||
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Even though the data is limited because it's not nationwide, they have a network of hospitals around the country (not all states are covered) that sends in regular reports. 2017-2018 was a bad flu year so I used that as an example. I used COVID data from week ending 8/1 hoping giving a couple weeks the data would be more accurate. The total flu hospitalizations in the network for 2017-2018 were 670.5 per 100,000 (.67%) confirmed flu cases. The total COVID hospitalizations in the network were 722.6 per 100,000 confirmed cases (.72%) https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html From another CDC page:
Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries we can see how many cases are serious: For the USA out of 2,490,109 active cases, 16,801 are critical or .67%. The feeling some people get when they see a headline like 97,000 children tested positive the last month is that What monster would want to open school? They are all going to die, or we are all doomed!!!! The headlines never say 97,000 children tested positive, about 7 will need to be hospitalized (CDC data for 5-17 year olds), but most will have zero symptoms or very minor ones. I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denier. I'm not trying to convince anybody of anything. But to me it seems the data doesn't match up with some of the headlines and overall feeling of gloom and doom. Having said that, I have been very scared of this thing and still worry/respect it but trying to live my life. Mark | ||
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21st Aug 2020, 08:50 PM | #1308 | ||
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...es-deaths.html
Mark | ||
21st Aug 2020, 11:45 PM | #1309 | |
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For some pretty solid circumstantial evidence as to the threat, I suggest researching how many countries have banned US passports. When countries are more afraid of the health risks than desire the financial benefits and the American tourist/business dollar, it sends a message to some of us. On other recent posts on this thread...I don't understand why we would compare the US to anyone other than the countries that have handled COVID the best, and model what they did. Modeling success is a standard business strategy. Do what they did. No more theory or debate. I also have a serious concern with the anti-maskers. These people have just told every enemy we have in the World how to attack us. Send us a virus. We won't believe it's actually happening or even wear masks. Biological warfare is every bit as big of a concern for National Defense as any other type of warfare. This is nothing new. The Mongols catapulted bodies of soldiers that died from the Plague over fortress walls in the 1300s. Now Putin, China, Iran or some 400 lb guy (who calls Claude "Slim") in the basement can take down the US. I also think it's fair to research and compare the index case(s) of COVID in the US to the index cases of Ebola in the US and why weren't the same procedures followed? I'd also like to know what's the contingency plan for a possible second wave? This is really a plateau of the first wave. Maybe it will be a "miracle" and just go away. But what if the fall and winter are COVID "season" and things get worse because it's already so wide spread? Shouldn't we at least have a plan of some sort...you know, just in case it comes back worse than the first time like the Spanish flu did? | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 01:08 AM | #1310 | |
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As far as "Knowledge Bombs" go....you made a hell of a crater my friend. | |
22nd Aug 2020, 01:34 AM | #1311 | |
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However, keep in mind that many countries are still closed to everyone, not just the US. For example, Europe takes European and 9 other country's visitors only. New Zealand is closed to everyone, but they have exceptions for Australians, Tongans, and Samoans. They, and many countries don't want visitors even from places with no problems. I don't blame any country for having travel restrictions. I'm restricting my own long planned travel. But as I've pointed out a couple times here, let's talk about this fairly. In this thread, it is mostly gloom and doom. When the focus is on the negative, as you say it sends a message to some of us. I was that way once, so I understand. Mark | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 04:36 AM | #1312 |
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Correction: Australians face mandatory isolation upon arrival in New Zealand. There was talk of a "Trans-Tasman bubble" a while ago, but since the second waves flared up in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland (the three most populous states), and New Zealand itself, that has been shelved indefinitely.
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22nd Aug 2020, 05:04 AM | #1313 | |
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From what I've seen required isolation for international travelers is fairly common in a lot of the world. I think the USA is lacking here. Upon arrival in Taiwan, even if you don't have symptoms you are forced into self-quarantine (alone) for 14 days. The police visit you daily and you get several phone calls daily. Your cell phone gets a tracking device put in it and there are fines for trying to leave your assigned location. Mark | |
22nd Aug 2020, 05:40 AM | #1314 |
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22nd Aug 2020, 07:17 AM | #1315 | |
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Eleven total cases - 2 deaths. It's quite a bit easier to have the facilities and PPE's available to treat 11 cases than to treat tens of thousands. As I recall, at the time there were stories about the PPE's being 'insufficient' . With covid - we can know all the facts and it doesn't change the facts. To me there is scientific data missing that should (and probably is) priority. Do people develop immunity...or not? Does the immunity last - or decline? Are asymptomatic cases more - or less - infectious....or are they infectious at all? On those particular questions, I've seen experts answer several different ways. Studies are being done but until they are completed...we don't know. When listening to experts, remember that 'could be', and 'might be' are not facts. Covid-19 moved so swiftly the science is still trying to catch up. Every single day on nightly news there is 'progress' announced on one cure or another....we know it's not that quick or easy but it's reported as 'news' anyway. My doctor said of 8 people she's had tested for 'antibodies' - only two tested positive....then she said 'no idea what means as we don't know if they are immune or not....or whether it will last or not.' I think it's only human to analyze and want all the 'facts' - but it doesn't change anything. I also believe we've been given the 'truth' as it's been known. We were told masks were not necessary - because the experts believed it at the time....now they believe the opposite. We keep hearing 'follow the science' - but before you can do that the science has to be done - the studies completed - the results analyzed. As the results become clear....advice can change. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 09:08 AM | #1316 | |
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One of the vicious factors about this virus is that so many people show no symptoms, or very mild symptoms. Remember the flu? When you got the flu...you knew you had the flu. But most people don't show symptoms, especially young people. But they transmit the virus. That's the danger. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 09:35 AM | #1317 | |
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Has that been proven as yet? I've heard 'yes, they transmit the virus' - I've heard an expert say (just last week) 'when CHILDREN transmit, it's stronger' - and others say 'no, it isn't'....and even heard 'we don't know if children without symptoms are contagious' and 'children with no symptoms MAY NOT BE as likely to transmit covid to others'. So many of these reports have 'we think' or 'it is believed that' or, 'it appears' - and you have to wonder if anyone KNOWS for sure. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 09:46 AM | #1318 | |
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Nobody seems to know anything for sure. A common risk management practice for situations like this is to accept the worst possible outcome as true and prepare for it. However, we seem to have a country full of folks who prefer to take the opposite approach. If they're wrong, the outcome will be catastrophic. I guess there's a silver lining. If we wipe out an entire generation of the elderly and infirm, maybe I'll actually be able to collect social security some day... | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 10:22 AM | #1319 | |
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The reason we have heard "When children transmit, it's stronger" is because, for whatever reason, there is a greater concentration of the virus in children's throats that have the virus.It's been measured. No idea how often. No idea where. No idea if it's all affected children, or just a small sampling. And I have no idea if that fact makes it more likely that they will transmit the virus. It is not the level of symptoms that spread the virus. It's having the virus at all, and breathing on other people. The virus is always in the throat, like any virus you catch by breathing it in. Added later; This isn't for you Kay, but it maybe needs to be said. There are things we don't know. Or things we know about the virus, but don't have exact numbers. There is a danger for deniers to ignore the pandemic because they will argue "If you can't tell me the exact percentage, forget it". I've heard this argument with the virus, with evolution, global warming, with other subjects that have been studied, but we don't have every answer down to precise percentages. There can be statements by experts that sound conflicting, because there isn't enough known to be definitive. Like, do we really know that having more virus in your throat makes it more likely that you'll spread the virus? I don't know. And I wouldn't know how that would be tested. But that doesn't mean we don't know anything. Again, this wasn't directed at you. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 11:17 AM | #1320 |
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| Imagine a virus so terrifying and deadly that you need to be tested to see if you already had it. And now for the final nail in the coffin... <div align="center"> <table class="tborder" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1" border="0" width="400" style="margin:10px 0"> <thead> <tr> <td class="tcat" colspan="2" style="text-align:center"> <a href="" title="You Tube Large" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">You Tube Large</a> </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="panelsurround" align="center"><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_vdvJNhqOZw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></td> </tr> </tbody> </table></div> Not one person in this thread can deny the stats. The only possible way for you to do so, is because of cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias and good ol' 'fear' created by media and politicians. To prove cognitive dissonance, the ignorant won't even watch the video. I get it. It's hard to do a u-turn when you have accepted lies as truth. Sweden baby. Sweden. |
22nd Aug 2020, 11:27 AM | #1321 | ||
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Now your next bit of education should be "why were there only 11 cases" of Ebola? You're acting as if ebola went away due to a "miracle". You should treat this bit of research as if 100,000's or even millions of people will die and trillions of dollars of wealth may be lost, because this is what is actually happening. And anyone that doesn't think the question "why didn't we do ANYTHING when the first COVID index cases were found" is a fair question is beyond reason. As far as masks, I didn't depend on any one source. I researched like my life depended on it and I started my research in Feb. I've constantly looked at the countries that have done the best and those that did the worst and looked for commonality. I formed an opinion about masks based on two facts: The countries that wear them do much better than those that don't. And doctors and nurses, etc. wear masks. I consider these people to be experts on the subject. If masks don't work, why do these people who know best wear them? When I saw the conventional "advice" in the US about masks not being recommended, I did just a little more research to find out why. Here's the reasons given back then: 1. There aren't enough N-95 masks for the health care workers. 2. They weren't effective. Why not? They failed in two ways: Cross contamination with their hands when putting the mask on and off. And lack of a proper seal. Both of these failures are easily fixed with a simple 30 second how-to video. 3. And get this...many of the same reports that said "masks don't work" also said "well they do work for helping those with the virus not giving it to others"...and NONE I found said that it doesn't help from spreading. And to your other points, a lot of the science is changing. But there's a few things that are constant: First, the way to beat COVID is through wearing masks, social distancing, lots of testing and contact tracing. This isn't rocket science or theory. We either do these things or we don't. And the economy won't comeback until COVID is gone. There is no "balance". This isn't a chicken and the egg. History and current events prove this. Instead of losing 80% of the economy for a month, we'll lose 25% every month for years. We need new accounting and accountants. It's pretty sad when so much life and treasure has been lost and some think it isn't fair to even ask why nothing was done when there were only 12 cases in the US. COVID was a lot easier to deal with then. Kay lost all her credibility with me during this time when she said COVID was just being over-hyped by the media. Her attitude, along with others, is exactly why we are in the position we're in. It was this "fake news" BS during, and right after, the index cases that caused this pandemic in the US. Not the disease, the pandemic. We could have contained it then, like other countries that had index cases at about the same time, can you say South Korea? I know...it's so unfair to ask why we didn't do anything and S Korea did and why they only lost 100s and we've lost 100,000s. People that understand exponential numbers understand why the index cases were so important. | ||
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22nd Aug 2020, 01:59 PM | #1322 | |
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Yes. This guy absolutely does not sound like Alex Jones had a baby with a clone of Alex Jones...and he followed them in the business. In no way does this guy sound like a conspiracy nut. I think you have just cracked this case wide open. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 03:40 PM | #1323 | |
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Are the facts he's sharing wrong? I genuinely would like to know why people would not accept facts such as these. Is it because the facts don't fit the story we already have in our head? Is it because we think he's lying about the facts? We can go to the CDC or any number of other websites and see the same data. I listed some above. Is it because we are afraid or not sure what we think and so we are being super cautious? Why would data to date such as out of 100,000 confirmed cases X number will be hospitalized and Y number will die not be accepted? Mark | |
22nd Aug 2020, 04:07 PM | #1324 | |
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The first 5 minutes of the video is when he's giving facts. These are real numbers from the CDC. and nothing he said there is different from anything I have said about this pandemic.It's not different from anything we have heard on the News. Where he starts to go...well..off the rails...is when he says that the average age of death in the US is 78 . It's actually about 79 years...but let's give him that. He says that this means that the deaths from Covid would have happened the same year anyway. Because the average age of Covid deaths is 78 and the average life expectancy in the US is about 78. Do you see the problem yet? Most wouldn't. Age 78 is the average life expectancy in the US from birth. All deaths before age 78 are included in that figure. But everyone that's age 78 that dies from Covid...has already lived for 78 years. they are survivors. Once you reach age 78, you now have an average life expectancy of 9.43 years more if you are male and about 11 years more if you are female. So the people dying at the average age of 78 from Covid, actually had an additional 10 years of life that was cut short. Only a very small percentage (certainly less than 5%) were going to die that year anyway. That's why this guy is wrong. His facts are right, his interpretations of those facts are wrong. His conclusions were wrong. And...on a personal level...he acts as though he has uncovered a big secret, as though these facts were kept from us. They were not. That's why he sounded like Alex Jones to me. He was very...very excited to tell us news that we already knew. And he was even more excited to tell us his brilliant conclusion from these facts....which was way off base. Added later; To be fair, I can see where someone would watch the video and accept his conclusions as fact. After all, they are based on facts. And these facts are well documented. And the show host sounds like he's uncovered a real secret. Anyway, if I offended anyone by being Brusk, I apologize. Also added later; The way the guy acts in the video is actually good marketing. No matter what you say, it should sound important, newly discovered, a secret, or big news. That's how you keep viewers. It was just jarring to me because the information he gave was well known. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 04:17 PM | #1325 | |
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In every other comparable country (read developed economy), the age is in the mid 80s. Why does the richest country on Earth have a lower life expectancy than similar countries? I know the answer to that one, as I covered it on another forum (which some people here are members of). Looking back on that data (1970 to 2014), it seems the life expectancy was closer to 79 than 78, so in six years it's moved slightly backwards since then. I'll leave it an open question for everyone else to work out for themselves. Oh yeah, and the solution is a lot less expensive as well. | |
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22nd Aug 2020, 04:38 PM | #1326 |
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Same reason we've lost so many to covid-19.... obesity Too much processed food - too little exercise - adults and kids alike spending hours on 'screen time'.... Too bad some famous guru didn't promote a 'covid diet to save your life' - a lot of weight could have been lost in the months people have spent at home....but my doctor said her patients are complaining about the 'covid 15' - along the lines of the average weight gain of a college freshman. |
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23rd Aug 2020, 01:57 AM | #1327 |
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Problem I got with dogged dismissiveness is how all kindsa stuff bein' magicked away.
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24th Aug 2020, 08:47 AM | #1328 |
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On Friday, the CDC dropped its recommendation that travelers returning from trips overseas or from other states...quarantine for 14 days. NOW, the CDC says that is not necessary - so what else are we doing that is 'not necessary' now? Makes you wonder. I'm not a 'denier' but I understand how people can become skeptical when announcements by the 'experts' contradicts previous advice with no real explanation. |
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24th Aug 2020, 09:22 AM | #1329 |
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NYC is going to allow the celebrities that show up for the MTV Music Awards next week to skip the mandatory 14 day quarantine. Sound hypocritical when someone who is not a star has too.
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24th Aug 2020, 10:33 AM | #1330 |
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I read that - unfortunately this is just one more reason people are beginning to question both 'expert advice' and the 'danger of covid'. When the 'regular people' who are wanting to go back to work and with kids out of school...read that the rules are different for certain groups than for others...they stop listening to what they are told to do. Meanwhile, again the number have decreased substantially - HALF what they were just over a week ago...what does that mean? At what point do the numbers NOT justify the financial damage being done daily? When people go back to work and school there will be an uptick in covid cases. When people start driving to work and on vacations again there will be an uptick in traffic accidents. What is the 'acceptable' level of risk? In your opinion, what are the numbers that justify re-opening businesses - allowing restaurants to have more than 25-50% occupancy, etc? How do we know when it's time to accept the risk and get back to real life? |
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24th Aug 2020, 11:15 AM | #1331 | |
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With that said and in this context the old saying "one size does not fit all" means "different strokes for different folks" as long as there is no authority mandating lawful procedures. And with that said, until lawful procedures are mandated and enforced the public (us) will continue our policies of individual circumstances and society's public stance and nuances. You know what it really comes down to? Time! Time is the only constant in the whole scenario. Time will affect the numbers and the numbers will affect our decision makers policy as it is done now. Decision makers as well as many people in this thread compare what were the numbers last week, last month etc. and make decisions based on that information with a certain amount of forecasting involved. Many countries are working on a cure as well know. Certain countries are not following safety guidelines as we know which may be for good reasons. Time will tell. Just my opinion. | |
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24th Aug 2020, 11:54 AM | #1332 |
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Sometimes the timing is 'interesting' - or maybe we see what isn't there? A bit of a stink about celebs not having to self quarantine in a state that requires 'all visitors' to quarantine....and suddenly CDC says quarantine isn't necessary? Does that automatically negate the states like Hawaii and New York and others that have required visitors from other states to self-quarantine when they enter the state? Does the change in the CDC recommendation open up states to liability for requiring additional 2 weeks stay in quarantine? |
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24th Aug 2020, 12:14 PM | #1333 | |
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This situation is ever changing. It may be because of political pressures, or pressures from certain groups. But during this pandemic, I would expect what is necessary one week, could be unnecessary the next, and it could go back a forth several times. One thing I think is useful is tracking the weekly averages. It keeps us from seeing a two day downturn as a downturn, and a daily spike as an increase. And to me, one definition of Expert is the ability to change decisions, as circumstances change. A person that maintains a position, as circumstances change has a name...politician. | |
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24th Aug 2020, 12:36 PM | #1334 | |
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Doctors determine precisely which profiles are likely to become severely ill or die from the virus and those people can determine how to go about their business and they are afforded certain entitlements (and, man, do I hate that word...) or An across-the-board, effective treatment is found or An effective vaccine is found. As long as the virus is still around in any number without effective treatment or a vaccine, we're just one concert or one pool party away from another outbreak. | |
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24th Aug 2020, 12:46 PM | #1335 | |
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BTW, here's Kay's earlier "logic"...It's unreasonable to even question why we didn't follow the same procedures for the COVID index cases as we did for the Ebola index cases. First, she told us there are too many unknowns and how we don't know everything about COVID. This shows her intellectual bias. She only applied the unknowns to COVID but not to Ebola. Why is that Kay? Why was your entire argument about not even questioning something that has killed 175,000 Americans based on saying COVID had too many unknown variables but you didn't apply the same "logic" to Ebola? What did we know about Ebola that we didn't about COVID? You must surely know, you formed your entire argument around this point. Then her "logic" was that we shouldn't question the total lack of response to the COVID index cases because we couldn't possible know what would happen. She just made her entire point for questioning how the index cases were handled based on not knowing enough about COVID. Kay, this is EXACTLY why index cases are so important. We don't know. That's why we have (actually HAD) SOP. Here's how the US handled Ebola. First, we sent a medical aid and teams to Africa to help fight and keep ebola there. Did we send a team to China? Why or why not? Such an unfair question, I know. Once the first index case of ebola was detected n the US, all travel was immediately canceled from countries with cases of ebola, I believe this was The Congo. How long was it before we canceled travel from China and Europe after we detetected the first index cases of COVID? I know, another unfair question. When the first index cases where found in the US, those folks were contact traced and about 12 people were put in heavy quarantine. There was also a time when about 12 people in the US were found infected with COVID. These are the index cases. Kay thinks it's unreasonable to even question why we did things differently and didn't follow the advice of the experts then... Note that I didn't say make a conclusion or a judgement, only asked "why were things done differently?" Kay plainly said she doesn't even think it's "fair" to ask this question. Unbelievable. | |
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24th Aug 2020, 01:03 PM | #1336 | |
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24th Aug 2020, 03:31 PM | #1337 | |
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That's what I said and didn't say you had to agree..... You don't get to tell others what they are allowed to post or to think. You know rudeness to other members is not tolerated. I find it interesting to think about this pandemic from different angles and sometimes argue to see if a theory makes sense or not...to ME.There is no 'right' here - there are opinions and interpretations that may not agree ....but so what? You are entitled to your opinion - you are not entitled to mine. I worked in research labs for 12 years - so I do know the terminology. Talking down to others says more about you than them. | |
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24th Aug 2020, 06:13 PM | #1338 | |
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there is no lesson .. to learn the global warming peole who have shifted to coronavirus .. useing the same base argumant that has not worked i 30 years or more of the global warming non debate .. based on computre models .. that worked so freaking great with coronavirus blah blah blah exters made up data to put in the compute modles for corona visu to get big scarvy numbers from the computer models | |
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24th Aug 2020, 07:25 PM | #1339 | |
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As each new piece of knowledge emerges about the virus, how its transmitted, what its effects are, and how best to deal with it will remain an evolutionary process. Each new piece of information will add to the big picture, especially on how best to deal with it. Sometimes that little tidbit of information will result in a different approach becoming necessary, sometimes diametrically opposed to what has previously been touted. A vaccine may itself be ineffective, or only be effective for one strain of the virus, as the world's first case of re-infection has been recorded. The virus itself is evolving, and so too must ways and means of defeating it be an ongoing process, one that changes as each new strain emerges. https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ears-hong-kong Remember, the fastest time frame from a vaccine being discovered to "herd immunity" was for rubella (mumps), and that took around four years. On the other side of the coin, I'll bet there are far more scientists working towards an effective vaccine for COVID19 than there were for rubella (probably - possibly - I hope - I don't know). | |
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24th Aug 2020, 08:14 PM | #1340 |
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The No Masks Motorcycle festival has already begun new infection counts spreading in neighboring counties. Super Spreaders not only spread Coronavirus, they are a virus themselves. Not taken seriously initially, the Virus strain gains power and infects more people and ENCOURAGES any new virus spreaders. |
24th Aug 2020, 08:19 PM | #1341 | |
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Whatever was done or not done 6 months ago or 6 minutes ago can't be changed. The blame game helps nothing at this point. Once we whip it, then let's investigate and hold people accountable. And since what you said is true, I wish people would quit second guessing everything that is said and done by people they hate. For example, the new plasma treatment (which has been around a little while but now will be available more widely) has been mercilessly attacked as political and all about the election and just about every story includes bias. On the one hand we want strong leadership and on the other hand, we reject things leaders are trying to do who we don't like. Then we blame them for not doing anything and letting people die. Mark | |
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25th Aug 2020, 08:35 AM | #1342 |
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This Bloomberg article on "tricking kids into learning through gaming platforms like Roblox and Minecraft" certainly hit home for me. Anyone else? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...?sref=sWz3GEG0 |
26th Aug 2020, 02:31 PM | #1343 |
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Early on in this thread their was talk about herd immunity. Over the weekend their was an article about possible herd immunity in Sweden. Now there is speculation about it in Brazil, the article goes on to mention other places and even parts of NYC. https://nypost.com/2020/08/26/drop-i...ity-questions/ You have to wonder if this could actually be happening ? Added quoting from the article - "Many researchers believe that collective immunity works differently in a live outbreak like coronavirus than in something like the measles. The virus doesn’t vanish at a specific point, but the transmission decelerates until it’s eradicated." |
27th Aug 2020, 06:35 AM | #1344 |
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I like trying to understand things, if you do too, then you may find this interesting.. Link to research article Addicted to answers: Need for cognitive closure and the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs (It's a for pay link - you can read all of it for free, as long as you do it the first time you click it... and you have to read it within a few hours because they will kill access) Link to orig article: Why do people believe conspiracy theories? What are conspiracy theories? First, let’s define the term. A conspiracy theory is a non-mainstream explanation for something about the world that involves secret, powerful and often sinister groups. It’s speculative, meaning it’s not based on verified facts. It’s often complex. (Just think of that meme of Charlie from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia madly gesturing at crisscrossing strings on a wall crammed with “evidence.”) It usually includes negative and distrustful beliefs about an “other.” A conspiracy theory is a non-mainstream explanation for something about the world that involves secret, powerful, and often sinister groups. And importantly, a conspiracy theory is not falsifiable — any evidence against the theory would be chalked up to a cover-up, paradoxically reinforcing the theory. When scientists try to reassure people that chemtrails consist only of normal water vapor, a hardcore chemtrail believer might conclude that scientists have been bought by the government to lie to the people. This episode is not going to debunk (or bunk) any specific conspiracy theories. After all, I’m no expert on airplane contrails or moon landings. But it turns out that, whether they're true or not, the psychology of conspiracy theories is fascinating. (Spoiler alert: Sleep disorders might be involved in alien abduction conspiracy theories!) But let’s start with the basics. Why do people believe in conspiracy theories? Psychologists specializing in conspiracy theories believe that people have three main motivations for believing in conspiracy theories, whether or not they’re aware of these motivations. 1. The need to reduce uncertainty and make sense of the world The world can be a scary and overwhelming place. Events often seem random; talking heads on TV don’t agree on basic facts; there are gaps in our understanding of how injustices and disasters come about. For all of us, there are days when nothing seems to make sense. When a conspiracy theory comes along, claiming to make sense of the insensible, it can be quite appealing. Research shows that when people feel a strong sense of uncertainty, they’re more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. This is especially true for those who have a high need for cognitive closure — in other words, they feel deeply uncomfortable if they don’t get answers. 2. The need to feel safe and have a sense of control Related to making sense of the world, we also have a deep need to feel safe and like we have control over our environment. Conspiracy theories can offer a psychological island to land on when we’re treading water. They offer some concreteness when we feel helpless about our lives. Perhaps someone’s child has unexplained health issues. Believing in a conspiracy about how pharmaceutical companies are purposely using vaccines to make kids sick might seem appealing for desperate parents. Deciding to refuse vaccines gives them some sense of control. Conspiracy theories offer the opportunity to reject official narratives, affording some small solace. People who lack control in other areas of life—employment, financial future, social prejudice — may similarly feel like they don’t have a safe or valued space in the world. In fact, people who feel like they have low socio-political control are more susceptible to believing in conspiracies. This makes sense — conspiracy theories offer the opportunity to reject official narratives, affording some small solace. 3. The need to maintain a good self-image Another reason people who feel left behind or left out are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories is that these unfounded beliefs offer a way to maintain a positive self-image. How do conspiracy theories make people feel good about themselves? Well, let's say you're persistently unemployed. Isn’t the idea of a secret cabal within the government purposely keeping unemployment high to control an upcoming election an easier pill to swallow than the idea that your skills may no longer be marketable? Perhaps this is why people on the losing side of the political process are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. It allows people to maintain a sense that they and their in-group are good while blaming others for things gone wrong. How do conspiracy theories take root? For the reasons we’ve covered, people may be “on the ready” to believe in conspiracy theories. But how do specific theories take root in people’s minds? This question is difficult because the answer seems to be very complex. But psychological science has found some hints. 1. We all have confirmation bias Confirmation bias is our brain's tendency to look for information that supports what we already believe. This tendency can lead us to talk to people we know agree with us (think Twitter echo chambers). Or it could find us scanning a Google search results page and clicking only on the links that show what we were looking for. If I already think the Illuminati is controlling the world’s banks and I search for “Illuminati banks,” my eyes will be drawn to the link that says “every bank CEO is an Illuminati member.” Confirmation bias is our brain's tendency to look for information that supports what we already believe. What makes confirmation bias worse is that we’re not good at remembering where our conspiracy ideas came from. Do you remember when you first heard the idea that the moon landing was staged? A fascinating study showed that when people read persuasive conspiracy theories, they’re prone to falsely recalling that they had believed in the conspiracy all along. 2. It’s not about the specific content You might think that how well a conspiracy theory takes root in someone’s mind depends on how plausible the theory is. As it turns out, though, content isn't that important. Whether someone adopts a conspiracy theory or not depends more on their overall proneness to believe in conspiracies in the first place. The act of believing in conspiracy theories is its own fuel. A study showed that the more someone believed Princess Diana faked her own death, the more the same person believed she was murdered. The more someone believed that Osama bin Laden was already dead by the time his compound was raided, the more the same person believed that he was still alive. In other words, the act of believing in conspiracy theories is its own fuel. The more we believe in one, the more likely we are to believe in others, even if they're contradictory. 3. Sometimes, a sleep disorder can make you hallucinate an alien abduction Yes, you read that right — sometimes, believing in a conspiracy theory doesn’t come from going down a Google search rabbit hole. Sometimes, it comes from very real perceptual experiences that your brain creates while you’re in the twilight zone between sleep and wakefulness. Sleep paralysis, documented since the 1600s, is the strange experience of being completely unable to move even as you're conscious of your own body and surroundings. This tends to happen as you're on the verge of falling asleep or waking up. Not only is it terrifying to feel paralyzed, but sleep paralysis often comes with feeling a heaviness on your chest, a racing heart, other panic attack sensations and even pain. Far-out ideas can grow from honest-to-goodness biological roots and then spread through our collective consciousness as conspiracy theories. You may also have hallucinations during sleep paralysis, often in the form of seeing figures in the room or even looming over your bed. There's good documentation that people who believe they've experienced alien abduction are actually describing an episode of sleep paralysis. Often, their traumatic memories of the experience evolve over time as their brains try to make sense of the insensible. The vague, shadowy figures they hallucinated take on the features of the aliens we talk about in popular culture — large heads, little grey bodies, dark elongated eyes. Of course, this only accounts for a small portion of all conspiracy theories, but I think it’s fascinating that our brains can mix sleep disorder symptoms with cultural imagery to produce this phenomenon. It shows that far-out ideas can grow from honest-to-goodness biological roots and then spread through our collective consciousness as conspiracy theories. What are the psychological consequences of believing in conspiracy theories? As I've already mentioned, a deep longing for safety and control can motivate a person to believe in conspiracy theories. But the sad truth is, the approach isn't helpful. In fact, it may have the opposite effect. This is a good time to use our wise minds — acknowledge our anxiety, but also weigh the facts so we can be empowered with useful knowledge in the face of uncertainty. Research shows that when people are exposed to conspiracy theories, they immediately feel less like they’re in control. And it’s not just about feeling bad — believing in conspiracy theories makes people distrustful of government even when the theories aren’t related to the government. It also causes disenchantment with public health authorities and scientists. This disconnect can be a real-world problem when governments and authorities are trying to convince people to follow public health guidelines — like getting their children vaccinated or social distancing during a pandemic — especially if doing the wrong thing increases everybody’s risk. That’s why understanding the psychology of conspiracy theories is more important than ever. In many ways, conspiracy theories are designed to be appealing to our brains in stressful, uncertain times. This is a particularly good time to use our wise minds — acknowledge our anxiety, but also weigh the facts so we can be empowered with useful knowledge in the face of uncertainty. |
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27th Aug 2020, 08:07 AM | #1345 | |
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It doesn't refute anything in the link you provided (that I can discern), but it does try and explain the phenomenon from a psychological perspective. Worth a read: https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ical-features/ | |
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27th Aug 2020, 08:16 AM | #1346 | |
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It makes them feel part of some secret organization. People love to have a secret that others don't know about. They are complex. Like a puzzle. And they are involved. You can go deeper and deeper. They make an excellent hobby. There is an innate "Us against them" drive that we all have. As part of your tribal survival instinct. Some of us have this in small amounts. Some have it in bundles. This "Us against them" instinct can easily override any rational thought process. A strange thing about complex conspiracy theories is that they can be perfectly logical without being rational. The conclusions can fit perfectly, but the premises are faulty. And these ideas are immune from rational attacks, because they fold in on themselves if the believer feels threatened. Conspiracy theories are religion. They follow the same structure, the same defenses. | |
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27th Aug 2020, 09:17 AM | #1347 | |
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Then there is my favorite, the Mandela Effect, It is wrongly labeled by some as a conspiracy theory as it involves many in your face things and examples that are either true or untrue for various amounts of people who look at them. One or two things they might agree with, many they don't. so it is not a firm, set in stone conspiracy theory. Now if some people start to talk about attributing the cause of it to dark forces or Cern meddling with physics, then it becomes conspiratorial, but only to them. As usual, you tend to gloss over the grey area's and see most things in black and white. Not always a good thing when trying to analyze objectively. | |
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27th Aug 2020, 12:01 PM | #1348 | ||
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You are again....telling me how I think, when it is impossible for you to know how I think. I don't see things in black or white. I'm not sure anyone does. Saying that someone sees things in black or white is a common dodge to paint the other person as wrong, without understanding what they said. And as for "Grey areas" ...let me explain that that means. That means that the explanation is murky, nondescript, maybe unknowable. It's a way of not knowing the answer, and positioning that as a sort of virtue. It isn't. If you want to go with the "grey areas' claim, then let me help you. If it's grey, then it's a very specific shade of grey. An exact shade....not an ambiguous blob of diffused gray shades.For example, Slate Grey may be the correct answer, and all other shades of grey are a mistake. And another mistake with the "shades of grey" idea is that it wrongly assumes that the real answer is somewhere between black and white. And it almost never is. In any argument where two people are not informed, the answer is never "somewhere in the middle". Both people are simply wrong. the answer is usually in a completely different direction. One unknown to either arguer. As far as the Mandela effect being a conspiracy theory. it isn't. A conspiracy theory involves people acting in secret. The mandela effect is simply a mistake in reasoning. It's not even a theory or a paradox. It's impossible for me to know what you are thinking, just as it's impossible for you to know how I'm thinking. But you repeating that I see things in black or white, indicates that you are way way off. Added later; I went back and read your post a few more times, and then I read my post (the one you replied to) a few more times. I don't see how anything you said applies to anything I said. You said;
And then you said; None of that applies to anything I said, or even to anything you said. | ||
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27th Aug 2020, 12:26 PM | #1349 | |
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As to politics, Covid and just about anything else, you are just as open as anyone else. | |
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27th Aug 2020, 12:41 PM | #1350 | |
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That actually does clear it up somewhat. | |
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